thetrading.tools
Options7 bets logged · marked through Oct 20, 2026

Options Bets

Large options trades in stocks, ETFs and the 3x funds, read for direction and size. Each bet says whether it is most likely a bet or a hedge, and links to its own page with every print, what most likely happened, scenarios to expiry, the payoff by future price and the profit or loss since the trade.

Sources, methodology & freshnessOptions time and sales from a U.S. brokerage (entered by hand); daily option bars; closing prices; fed funds · New bets as they are logged; open bets marked to market after each closeData as of 2026-10-20 · Open ↓
Source
Options time and sales from a U.S. brokerage (entered by hand); daily option bars; closing prices; fed funds
Methodology
Black-Scholes on traded prices with each leg’s implied volatility; side read from the fill within the quote; margin from Cboe’s published rules
Updates
New bets as they are logged; open bets marked to market after each closeData as of 2026-10-20
Maintained & reviewed by Yuriy Matso — methodology shown on the page.
Options Bets2026-10-20
Bets logged
7
Premium traded
$29.92M
Open, in profit
3 of 7
Expired, in profit
none yet

Latest: SPY put spread: a cheap, all-or-nothing bet on a November pullback (Oct 20).

A count of logged bets, never a score. Every bet stays on the page after it expires, winners and losers alike. Descriptions, not advice.

01

Open bets (7)

02

Expired bets (0)

None yet. A bet moves here at its expiry with its final profit or loss.

03

How the bets are read

Each bet is entered by hand from a U.S. brokerage's options time and sales: every print's size, price, exchange and the quote at that moment. The tape does not say who started an order, so the side is a read. The page measures where the order filled within its quote and labels the read as likely, a lean or unclear, with the other read beside it.

A roll closes one position and opens another; only the opening legs are the bet going forward. Values, deltas and the payoff use Black-Scholes on each leg's own implied volatility. Fund prices are translated to the index as a one-day multiple, an approximation over weeks. Open bets are marked to market after each close from the options' closing prices until they expire.

Choosing which trades to log is itself a selection, so no logged bet is removed. Nothing here is a recommendation to trade.

Data: options time and sales from a U.S. brokerage, entered by hand; daily option bars; closing prices; fed funds. Download: bets.json.

How Options Bets Works

  1. 1
    Bet or hedge
    A large put position in SPY usually protects a stock portfolio; the same size in a 3x fund rarely does, because a 3x fund loses value to daily rebalancing and few holders keep one for months. Each bet says which it most likely is, and for the 3x funds translates the position into the index it tracks, counting that decay.
  2. 2
    Reading the side
    The tape shows size, price and the quote, but not who started the order. Each bet records where the order filled within its quote, the read that follows, how confident that read is, and the other read.
  3. 3
    Following the bet
    Each bet page charts the position’s profit or loss across the underlying’s future price, at expiry and today, and marks the position to market every session from the options’ closing prices until it expires.

Who Uses Options Bets

Options traders
See how large holders position, the strikes and expiries they choose, and what those positions need to make money.
Market watchers
Translate a trade in SOXS or SQQQ into what it says about semiconductors or the Nasdaq-100, in dollars of index exposure.
Researchers
Follow every logged bet to expiry, winners and losers alike, and judge whether large 3x-fund trades knew anything.

Pro Tips

01
Gross premium overstates a roll
A roll or a spread trades two legs, so its premium counts twice while only the difference changes hands. The net cash line is the money committed.
02
Short an inverse fund, long the index
Short calls on SOXS behave like short SOXS shares, which gain when semiconductors rise. Every bet states its lean in index terms for that reason.
03
The index move is approximate
A 3x fund tracks three times the index for one day. Over weeks, its path matters, so the index move beside each fund price is an approximation.

Common Issues & Solutions

How do you know who bought?▾
We do not. The page reports where the order filled within its quote and labels each read as likely, a lean or unclear, with the other read beside it.
Why are no bets removed?▾
Choosing which trades to log is already a selection. Removing the ones that went wrong would make the record look better than it is, so every logged bet stays.
Is the margin figure the holder’s requirement?▾
The figure applies Cboe’s published rules for a lone short option on a leveraged fund and portfolio margin’s price shock. Brokers can require more, and a hedged account less.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is a leveraged ETF options bet?▾
A large options trade in a 3x fund such as SQQQ, TQQQ, SOXS or SOXL. Few holders keep a 3x fund for long, so such a trade seldom hedges shares the holder owns. The page reads it as a view on the index.
What do short calls on an inverse fund mean?▾
Selling calls on SOXS or SQQQ behaves like shorting the fund, which gains when the index rises. It also collects the decay these funds suffer when the index swings without going anywhere.
What is a roll?▾
Closing an option position and opening a similar one at a later expiry, often at a different strike, in a single order. It keeps a bet alive past its original expiry.

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Implied volatility, skew and open interest for SOXS
Unusual Options Activity
The day’s most unusual options flow across stocks