Global MarketsUpdated daily
Country Trend Health
The Country Trend Health dashboard answers one question every morning: are global equity markets broadly healthy, which countries are leading, which are breaking down, and what changed today? Each of the 32 single-country MSCI ETFs is placed by its actual distance from the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, with regime classification, aggregate breadth, daily transitions, and a rotation watchlist — all benchmarked against the ACWI all-country world index.
Today's reading
As of market close on June 22, 2026, global country-trend health is MIXED at 52/100 (mixed and deteriorating). Mixed, narrowing. 12 of 32 ETFs are above their 50-day average; 23 of 32 above their 200-day. 50-day participation has contracted 38 percentage points over the last 20 sessions. Today: EWQ (strong → weakening), THD (strong → weakening), EPHE (strong → weak). Weak pocket: EWG, EWH, MCHI, EWZ, EZA, EIDO, EPHE, EWM. Pullback pockets: EWU, EWQ, EWL, EWD, EWA, EWC, EWW, TUR, THD, EPOL, ECH, VNM.
Source
Daily closes for 32 single-country MSCI ETFs + ACWI from our price database
Methodology
Per-ETF 50d & 200d SMA classification (Strong / Weakening / Recovery / Weak); aggregate % above MAs over rolling history, benchmarked to ACWI
Updates
Daily after market close (~1pm PT)Last: 2026-06-22
Country health32 countries · 2026-06-22 · close
MIXED
52/100
Mixed and deteriorating
above 20d
41%
▼-9.4%
above 50d
38%
▼-12.5%
above 200d
72%
▼-3.1%
50d breadth Δ5d -31.3%pp20d -37.5%pp
Mixed, narrowing. 12 of 32 ETFs are above their 50-day average; 23 of 32 above their 200-day. 50-day participation has contracted 38 percentage points over the last 20 sessions. Today: EWQ (strong → weakening), THD (strong → weakening), EPHE (strong → weak). Weak pocket: EWG, EWH, MCHI, EWZ, EZA, EIDO, EPHE, EWM. Pullback pockets: EWU, EWQ, EWL, EWD, EWA, EWC, EWW, TUR, THD, EPOL, ECH, VNM.
01
Country regime map
Each ETF placed by its actual distance from the 50-day (X) and 200-day (Y) moving averages. Hover any dot for full details.
Strong (top-right) Pullback (top-left) Recovery (bottom-right) Weak (bottom-left) Transition today Outlier (clamped)
Breadth & Regime Mix
32 countries
above 20d41%▼-9.4% 1d-21.9% 20d
above 50d38%▼-12.5% 1d-37.5% 20d
above 200d72%▼-3.1% 1d-12.5% 20d
11
1
12
8
Rotation Watchlist
Where rotation is most likely next — across the 32 single-country MSCI ETFs
Closest to Breakout
Below 200d, smallest gap
Closest to Breakdown
Above 200d, within 3%
Testing 50d
Within ±1.5% of 50d
Improving Fastest
Distance from 50d expanding
02
All countries — sortable detail
| ETF | Region | Regime ↑ | 1d | vs 50d | vs 200d | 1w | 1m | YTD | In regime |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EWJ 🇯🇵 Japan | Developed | STRONG | +1.92% | +6.0% | +12.4% | +4.4% | +6.6% | +19.2% | 6d |
| EWI 🇮🇹 Italy | Developed | STRONG | -0.41% | +3.0% | +10.3% | -0.5% | +3.0% | +11.1% | 53d |
| EWP 🇪🇸 Spain | Developed | STRONG | +0.90% | +4.2% | +10.8% | +1.4% | +4.2% | +10.4% | 7d |
| EWN 🇳🇱 Netherlands | Developed | STRONG | -0.51% | +7.6% | +16.4% | +1.1% | +7.9% | +23.6% | 52d |
| EWO 🇦🇹 Austria | Developed | STRONG | +0.14% | +7.6% | +21.1% | +2.5% | +8.9% | +21.5% | 52d |
| EWK 🇧🇪 Belgium | Developed | STRONG | +0.23% | +1.0% | +6.8% | -3.6% | +0.2% | +9.8% | 36d |
| EWS 🇸🇬 Singapore | Developed | STRONG | +0.68% | +2.3% | +4.7% | +2.3% | +2.0% | +8.3% | 3d |
| EWT 🇹🇼 Taiwan | Emerging | STRONG | +4.64% | +17.2% | +49.5% | +7.4% | +22.4% | +73.1% | 52d |
| EWY 🇰🇷 South Korea | Emerging | STRONG | +6.89% | +23.3% | +78.3% | +10.2% | +26.0% | +125.5% | 51d |
| ARGT 🇦🇷 Argentina | Emerging | STRONG | -2.07% | +2.2% | +7.5% | -2.9% | +5.6% | +4.0% | 7d |
| GREK 🇬🇷 Greece | Emerging | STRONG | +0.92% | +7.7% | +14.3% | +2.4% | +10.7% | +18.2% | 22d |
| EWU 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | Developed | WEAKENING | -1.00% | -3.0% | +1.5% | -3.1% | -1.8% | +3.4% | 4d |
| EWQ 🇫🇷 France | Developed | WEAKENING ↻ today | -1.07% | -0.6% | +0.9% | -2.8% | -0.4% | +0.7% | 1d |
| EWL 🇨🇭 Switzerland | Developed | WEAKENING | -0.08% | -0.6% | +3.0% | -2.3% | -1.6% | +2.2% | 3d |
| EWD 🇸🇪 Sweden | Developed | WEAKENING | -0.58% | -3.2% | +0.1% | -3.1% | -2.4% | +1.7% | 2d |
| EWA 🇦🇺 Australia | Developed | WEAKENING | -0.31% | -2.1% | +2.9% | -1.4% | +0.1% | +9.0% | 4d |
| EWC 🇨🇦 Canada | Developed | WEAKENING | +0.05% | -0.4% | +6.3% | -1.5% | -0.7% | +7.4% | 2d |
| EWW 🇲🇽 Mexico | Emerging | WEAKENING | +0.03% | -0.9% | +6.4% | -0.0% | -0.2% | +11.5% | 4d |
| TUR 🇹🇷 Turkey | Emerging | WEAKENING | -0.78% | -0.9% | +8.3% | +3.0% | +0.5% | +18.1% | 20d |
| THD 🇹🇭 Thailand | Emerging | WEAKENING ↻ today | -1.00% | -0.4% | +10.0% | -3.9% | -1.0% | +20.0% | 1d |
| EPOL 🇵🇱 Poland | Emerging | WEAKENING ↻ today | -0.68% | -0.3% | +9.4% | -3.6% | -0.7% | +12.2% | 1d |
| ECH 🇨🇱 Chile | Emerging | WEAKENING | +0.07% | -1.6% | +3.4% | -2.0% | +0.2% | +0.7% | 3d |
| VNM 🇻🇳 Vietnam | Emerging | WEAKENING | +1.25% | -0.8% | +1.5% | +4.3% | -3.8% | -2.6% | 2d |
| INDA 🇮🇳 India | Emerging | RECOVERY | +1.06% | +1.6% | -3.8% | +3.7% | +4.9% | -8.3% | 4d |
| EWG 🇩🇪 Germany | Developed | WEAK | +0.39% | -2.0% | -0.9% | -1.8% | -1.2% | -2.3% | 4d |
| EWH 🇭🇰 Hong Kong | Developed | WEAK | +0.09% | -8.1% | -5.5% | -3.2% | -10.8% | +0.2% | 11d |
| MCHI 🇨🇳 China | Emerging | WEAK | -0.43% | -6.8% | -12.6% | -2.9% | -6.7% | -12.2% | 12d |
| EWZ 🇧🇷 Brazil | Emerging | WEAK | -1.11% | -10.5% | -2.8% | -3.1% | -6.0% | +6.2% | 3d |
| EZA 🇿🇦 South Africa | Emerging | WEAK | -2.53% | -5.6% | -5.0% | -2.7% | -5.1% | -5.5% | 13d |
| EIDO 🇮🇩 Indonesia | Emerging | WEAK | -2.01% | -13.0% | -27.6% | -1.3% | -9.7% | -34.9% | 80d |
| EPHE 🇵🇭 Philippines | Emerging | WEAK ↻ today | -3.18% | -0.4% | -2.3% | -1.2% | +0.7% | -0.9% | 1d |
| EWM 🇲🇾 Malaysia | Emerging | WEAK | -1.42% | -6.3% | -2.3% | -3.6% | -8.1% | -0.8% | 3d |
03
Breadth history
ACWI price on top; below it, the count of countries in each regime over time across the 32 single-country MSCI ETFs.
Put the global read in context
Pair country trend health with Country Relative Strength (which markets are leading ACWI) and Country Performance (absolute returns). For the macro backdrop, check the Macro Panel (dollar & cross-asset regime) and Credit Spreads (global risk appetite) — a weak dollar with broadening emerging-market breadth is the cleanest global risk-on alignment. For the US-specific view, compare Sector Health.
How Country Trend Health Works
- 1Pull daily closes for 32 single-country MSCI ETFsEach trading day after the close, we read closing prices for 32 single-country ETFs spanning the developed and emerging world: Japan (EWJ), Germany (EWG), UK (EWU), France (EWQ), Switzerland (EWL), Canada (EWC), Australia (EWA) and other developed markets, plus China (MCHI), India (INDA), Taiwan (EWT), South Korea (EWY), Brazil (EWZ), Mexico (EWW) and other emerging markets. ACWI (the all-country world index ETF) is used as the global benchmark.
- 2Compute 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day SMAs per countryFor each country we compute the simple moving averages and check whether today's close is above or below each MA. Above the 50-day = short/intermediate-term uptrend. Above the 200-day = long-term uptrend. The combination of the two defines the country's regime.
- 3Classify each country into one of four regimesStrong = above both 50d and 200d (uptrend confirmed). Weakening / Pullback = above 200d but below 50d (long-term up, short-term breakdown). Recovery = below 200d but above 50d (long-term down, short-term reclaim). Weak = below both (downtrend confirmed).
- 4Score the headline Country Trend Health and surface daily toneThe hero card combines % above 20d / 50d / 200d into a 0-100 health score and labels the level (Healthy / Mixed / Fragile / Risk-Off). A separate "tone" line — broadening, cooling, deteriorating, stabilizing, or steady — is derived from the 1-day vs 20-day change in 50d-MA breadth, so the hero answers both "where are global markets" and "where are they headed today" at a glance.
- 5Place every country on the Country Regime MapThe signature visual is a four-quadrant scatterplot: each ETF's X position is its % from the 50-day MA, its Y position is its % from the 200-day MA. The 0/0 cross divides the plane into Strong (top-right), Pullback (top-left), Recovery (bottom-right), and Weak (bottom-left). Outliers (more than ±25% from either MA) are clamped to the edge with a small arrow; a "Full scale" toggle expands to auto-fit. Hover any dot for details on desktop; on mobile the map is static.
- 6Track breadth history (ACWI + per-regime panels) and rotation watchlistsThe Breadth History chart stacks ACWI price on top with four small panels below it — one per regime — so you can see how the 32 countries distributed across Strong / Pullback / Recovery / Weak through any global rally or selloff. The Rotation Watchlist surfaces the actionable edge cases: countries closest to breaking out above the 200d, closest to breaking down, testing the 50d, overextended above the 50d, and the day's fastest improvers and deteriorators by % from MA.
- 7Flag regime transitions for the dayWhen a country moves between regimes (e.g., Recovery → Strong, or Strong → Weakening) between yesterday's and today's close, we mark it. Transitions are highlighted with a cyan ring around that country's dot on the regime map and a "↻ today" tag in the detail table. These often precede meaningful shifts in global leadership.
Who Uses Country Trend Health
Global Macro Traders
Use country breadth as a regime read on global risk appetite. When ACWI rallies but only a third of countries are above their 50d MA, the move is concentrated in a few markets (often the US) and likely fragile. Broad global uptrends have 70%+ of countries above their 50d.
International / EM Allocators
Spot which countries just transitioned regimes — Recovery → Strong is a frequent setup for emerging-market leadership rotations. Weakening → Weak in a country you hold is a defensive flag worth a closer look at position sizing.
Long-Term Investors
Watch the % of countries above their 200d. Sustained global breadth contraction (200d % falling from 80%+ down through 50%) has historically aligned with global risk-off regimes. Above 70% confirms a broad, durable global uptrend worth staying invested in.
Relative-Strength Traders
Pair this regime read with the Country Relative Strength tool. A country in Strong regime that is also beating ACWI on relative strength is the cleanest long candidate; one in Weak regime and lagging the world index is the cleanest avoid or short.
Pro Tips
01
Watch for global breadth-price divergences
When ACWI makes a new high but the % of countries above their 50d MA fails to confirm (lower high), you have a classic non-confirmation — global leadership is narrowing to a few markets. It doesn't guarantee a top, but it removes the cleanest bull case.
02
Track regime transitions over absolute regime
A country that's been in Strong regime for 200 days carries less information than one that just transitioned today. Today's transitions are highlighted with a cyan ring on the regime map and a "↻ today" tag in the detail table — that's usually where the actionable rotation hides.
03
Read the Country Regime Map by region cluster
Watch whether developed and emerging markets cluster together or split. A tight cluster in the top-right (Strong) means global leadership is broad. Emerging markets drifting toward the bottom-left while developed markets hold the top-right is a classic risk-off rotation — capital retreating to perceived-safer markets.
04
Use the Rotation Watchlist for the next-likely-mover trade
Most actionable signals come from edge cases, not countries deep in one regime. The watchlists isolate them: "Closest to Breakout" (just below 200d, ready to flip into Strong), "Closest to Breakdown" (just above 200d, vulnerable), "Testing 50d" (the short-term inflection line), and "Overextended" (above 50d but stretched). Skim these every morning.
05
50d % is the tactical signal; 200d % is the strategic one
The 50d % oscillates fast and is good for short-term setup confirmation. The 200d % moves slowly — it's the signal that matters for global asset-allocation decisions. Both falling = serious global risk-off. 50d falling, 200d steady = noise.
06
Developed vs emerging leadership is its own signal
When emerging markets (China, India, Brazil, Korea) are in Strong regime while developed markets stall, global capital is chasing growth and a weaker dollar usually helps. The reverse — developed strong, EM weak — typically aligns with a strong dollar and global de-risking.
07
Pair with the dollar and US sector health
Country trend health is most powerful alongside the US dollar trend and US Sector Health. A weak dollar plus broadening emerging-market breadth is the classic "global risk-on" alignment; a strong dollar plus narrowing country breadth is the de-risking setup.
08
Days-in-regime tracks trend durability
A country that just moved to Strong (1 day) is fragile. One that's been Strong for 60+ days has earned the trend. Higher days-in-regime = stronger conviction in the current country trend.
Common Issues & Solutions
Why are some countries marked "unknown" instead of having a regime?▾
A country is marked unknown only when its 200-day MA cannot be computed yet — typically because the ETF has fewer than 200 trading days of history in our database. Nearly all single-country ETFs tracked here have many years of history, so this is rare.
The data shows yesterday's close, not today's▾
Daily bars are appended after the US market close (4 PM ET). Note that international markets close earlier, so a country ETF's US-listed close already reflects that day's overseas session plus any after-hours repricing. Today's bar should be visible by ~5 PM ET on regular trading days.
Why doesn't a 50d/200d crossover show up immediately?▾
The regime check is on close vs MA, not on MA vs MA. A country flips regime the day its close crosses the 50d or 200d MA. A 50d/200d golden cross or death cross is a separate, slower signal.
Why is China tracked via MCHI rather than another ticker?▾
MCHI (iShares MSCI China) has the longest continuous, liquid history for broad China exposure in our database and aligns with the MSCI methodology used across the rest of the universe. It captures both mainland and Hong Kong-listed Chinese equities.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is country trend health?▾
Country trend health measures how broadly the world's national equity markets are trending up or down. The % of countries above their 50-day or 200-day moving averages is a global-breadth read: when 80%+ are above their 50-day MA, the global rally has broad participation. When only 30% are, the world index is being held up by a narrow group of markets (often the US) — a fragility signal.
What are the four country regimes?▾
Strong = above both the 50-day and 200-day MAs (uptrend confirmed). Weakening = above 200d but below 50d (long-term up, short-term breaking down). Recovery = below 200d but above 50d (long-term down, short-term reclaim). Weak = below both (downtrend confirmed). The four-state model captures the full trend cycle better than a binary up/down.
Which countries does this dashboard track?▾
32 single-country MSCI ETFs. Developed (15): Japan, Germany, UK, France, Switzerland, Italy, Spain, Netherlands, Sweden, Austria, Belgium, Australia, Canada, Hong Kong, Singapore. Emerging (17): China, India, Taiwan, South Korea, Brazil, Mexico, South Africa, Turkey, Thailand, Indonesia, Philippines, Malaysia, Poland, Chile, Argentina, Greece, Vietnam. ACWI (the all-country world index ETF) is the benchmark.
Why does country breadth matter?▾
Healthy global bull markets have broad participation — most countries trending up together. Late-stage or fragile rallies narrow as fewer markets carry the world index. Sustained breadth contraction (% above 200d falling from 80%+ to under 50%) tends to align with global risk-off regimes, while broad expansion confirms durable global uptrends.
How is the regime classified?▾
For each country, we check today's close against its 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages. The combination of the two flags determines the regime: Strong (both up), Weakening (200 up, 50 down), Recovery (200 down, 50 up), Weak (both down). This is reassessed every day after the close.
What is a regime transition?▾
A regime transition happens when a country moves from one regime to another between yesterday's close and today's. For example, Recovery → Strong (country reclaimed its 200-day MA), or Strong → Weakening (country lost its 50-day MA). Transitions are flagged with a cyan ring around that country's dot on the Country Regime Map and a "↻ today" tag in the sortable detail table. They often precede meaningful shifts in global leadership.
What is the Country Regime Map?▾
The Country Regime Map is a four-quadrant scatterplot where each ETF is placed by its actual distance from the 50-day MA (X axis) and 200-day MA (Y axis). The 0/0 cross divides the plane into Strong (top-right, above both MAs), Pullback (top-left, above 200d but below 50d), Recovery (bottom-right, below 200d but above 50d), and Weak (bottom-left, below both). Hover any dot on desktop for details. The default scale is capped at ±25% so a single outlier can't squash the rest of the chart; a "Full scale" toggle expands to auto-fit.
What is the Rotation Watchlist?▾
The Rotation Watchlist surfaces the countries most likely to rotate next. Six categories: Closest to Breakout (below 200d, smallest gap), Closest to Breakdown (above 200d, within 3%), Testing 50d (within ±1.5%), Overextended (more than +10% above 50d), Improving Fastest (largest 1-day expansion in % from 50d), and Deteriorating Fastest (largest 1-day contraction). The lists update every day after the close and help spot setups before they show up as full regime transitions.
How is the health score calculated?▾
The 0-100 health score is a transparent weighted average of the % of countries above each MA: 40% × (% above 50d) + 40% × (% above 200d) + 20% × (% above 20d). Score thresholds: 70-100 Healthy, 50-70 Mixed, 30-50 Fragile, 0-30 Risk-Off.
Why benchmark to ACWI?▾
ACWI (iShares MSCI ACWI ETF) tracks the MSCI All-Country World Index — developed and emerging markets combined. It is the natural global benchmark for asking "is this country leading or lagging the world?" The Breadth History chart plots ACWI on top so you can read global price action against the country regime mix on the same dates.
What does it mean if emerging markets are Strong while developed markets are Weak?▾
When emerging markets (China, India, Brazil, Korea) sit in Strong regime while developed markets stall or weaken, global capital is chasing growth — usually helped by a weaker US dollar and rising risk appetite. The reverse (developed strong, EM weak) typically aligns with a strong dollar and global de-risking. The developed-vs-emerging split is one of the cleanest global rotation signals on the page.
How often is the data updated?▾
The underlying ETF CSVs are refreshed daily after the US market close (around 1 PM PT / 4 PM ET) from the TradeStation market-data API. The country-health recompute and JSON output regenerate within a few minutes after the fetch completes. All MAs and regime classifications reflect the most recent close.
Why use ETFs instead of the underlying indices?▾
Single-country ETFs are tradeable, have continuous US-listed price data, and reflect real flows including currency effects (they are USD-denominated, so a country's ETF moves with both its local market and its currency vs the dollar). The MSCI country indices are non-tradeable. For a USD-based investor, the ETF is the more honest read of the actual return.
Why are MAs simple (SMA) instead of exponential (EMA)?▾
SMAs are the broadly cited convention in breadth and trend analysis (e.g., "% above the 200-day MA"). Using SMAs keeps this dashboard directly comparable to standard practitioner literature. EMAs react slightly faster but at the cost of comparability.
How do I read the breadth history chart?▾
The chart stacks five sub-panels sharing one X axis. The top panel is ACWI price. Below it sit four small panels — one per regime — showing the count of countries in Strong, Pullback, Recovery, and Weak over time, each in its regime colour. A single crosshair tooltip walks all five rows together, so you can read ACWI plus the country regime mix on the same date in one glance. The default range is 3 years (toggle 1M / 3M / 6M / 1Y / 3Y). Watch for ACWI rising while Strong contracts and Pullback expands — that's the late-bull global divergence pattern.
Explore Other Tools
Country Relative Strength
RS leaderboard + rotation matrix — which countries are leading and gaining ground on the world index
Country Performance
32 single-country ETFs vs ACWI, rebased across 1M–MAX windows with a sortable returns table
Macro Panel
Dollar and cross-asset regime — the global backdrop a weak/strong USD sets for country breadth
Credit Spreads
High-yield vs investment-grade — the global risk-on/off appetite read
Sector Health
The same regime engine applied to the 11 US GICS sector ETFs
All Tools
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Last updated: 2026-06-22