InternalsUpdated daily after close · as of 2026-06-25
90% Up / Down Days: Was Today a 90% Day?
A 90% down day is a session where 90%+ of up-plus-down volume is in declining stocks — broad, urgent selling, the fingerprint of capitulation. A 90% up day is the mirror. Popularized by Lowry Research, the classic bottoming signal is a 90% up day arriving just after a 90% down day. Live reading and every instance since 2010.
Today's reading
As of market close on June 25, 2026, today is normal — 45% of up-plus-down volume was on the upside. There have been no 90% down days in the last 25 sessions. Since 2010 there have been 116 ninety-percent up days and 154 down days; the S&P 500 was higher three months after a 90% up day 87 of 116 times (avg +4.4%).
Source
Daily up/down volume across our common-stock universe (~5,000 symbols, 2010–present)
Methodology
90% up day = upside volume ≥ 90% of up+down volume; 90% down day ≤ 10%; forward S&P 500 returns after each up day
Updates
Daily after US market close (~1pm PT)Last: 2026-06-25
Today's tape2026-06-25 · up-volume share
NORMAL
45%
45% of up+down volume to the upside · 0 ninety-percent down days in the last 25 sessions
Up days since 2010
116
Down days since 2010
154
SPY avg +3m after up day
+4.4%
The bottoming signal is a 90% up day just after a 90% down day. After the 116 ninety-percent up days since 2010, the S&P 500 was higher three months later 87 of 116 times.
01
Upside-volume share over time
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90% up day (≥90%) 90% down day (≤10%) daily up-volume share S&P 500 (right, log)
02
Recent 90% days — and what the S&P 500 did next
| Date | Day | Up volume | SPY +1m | SPY +3m |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2025 | 90% Up | 92% | +2.8% | +1.1% |
| Apr 22, 2025 | 90% Up | 91% | +10.5% | +20.3% |
| Apr 9, 2025 | 90% Up | 98% | +2.9% | +13.7% |
| Apr 4, 2025 | 90% Down | 7% | +10.6% | +22.8% |
| Aug 23, 2024 | 90% Up | 91% | +1.6% | +5.6% |
| Aug 5, 2024 | 90% Down | 8% | +6.5% | +10.4% |
| Apr 12, 2024 | 90% Down | 8% | +2.0% | +9.9% |
| Dec 21, 2023 | 90% Up | 91% | +2.7% | +10.0% |
| Dec 13, 2023 | 90% Up | 91% | +0.9% | +8.4% |
| Nov 14, 2023 | 90% Up | 92% | +5.2% | +11.9% |
| Mar 29, 2023 | 90% Up | 90% | +3.6% | +9.2% |
| Mar 9, 2023 | 90% Down | 7% | +4.6% | +9.6% |
| Feb 21, 2023 | 90% Down | 10% | -1.7% | +4.9% |
| Jan 31, 2023 | 90% Up | 92% | -2.1% | +1.1% |
| Dec 29, 2022 | 90% Up | 93% | +6.0% | +6.8% |
| Dec 5, 2022 | 90% Down | 9% | -5.1% | -0.2% |
| Nov 30, 2022 | 90% Up | 94% | -6.2% | -0.9% |
| Nov 10, 2022 | 90% Up | 92% | +1.1% | +4.6% |
| Nov 2, 2022 | 90% Down | 9% | +8.5% | +10.0% |
| Oct 17, 2022 | 90% Up | 95% | +8.6% | +6.7% |
| Oct 14, 2022 | 90% Down | 9% | +10.5% | +11.2% |
| Oct 7, 2022 | 90% Down | 6% | +4.7% | +6.9% |
| Oct 4, 2022 | 90% Up | 97% | -0.8% | +1.5% |
| Oct 3, 2022 | 90% Up | 90% | +4.9% | +3.9% |
Computed on up/down VOLUME across our common-stock universe (~5,000 symbols, 2010+), not NYSE composite volume+points. Showing the most recent 24 of 270 ninety-percent days since 2010. Forward returns use SPY ~21 / 63 trading days later. A favorable average, not a guarantee.
How 90% Up / Down Days Works
- 1Split each day's volume up vs downFor every session we add up the volume of all advancing stocks and all declining stocks across our common-stock universe. The ratio of up-volume to total up-plus-down volume is the day's "upside volume share."
- 2Flag the 90% extremesA 90% up day is one where upside volume is 90% or more of the up-plus-down total — broad, one-sided buying. A 90% down day is the mirror: 90%+ of volume in declining stocks — broad, urgent selling, the fingerprint of capitulation.
- 3Watch the down-then-up sequenceThe single most-cited pattern, from Lowry Research, is a 90% up day arriving within a few days of a 90% down day. The down day marks panic; the quick up day marks demand overwhelming supply — together they often mark a tradeable low far better than either alone.
- 4Read the live status and the recordWe show today's upside-volume share and whether it is a 90% up day, a 90% down day, or normal, plus how many 90% down days have hit in the last 25 sessions (a stress gauge). The table lists recent instances and what the S&P 500 did 1 and 3 months after each.
Who Uses 90% Up / Down Days
Bottom-Fishers
A cluster of 90% down days flags capitulation; the first 90% up day after one is the historical "demand is back" trigger. This is the toolkit for timing entries into a washout rather than catching a falling knife.
Risk Managers
Back-to-back 90% down days warn that selling is broad and forced, not orderly — a sign to respect the downtrend and wait for an upside thrust before adding risk.
Tactical Traders
The down-then-up sequence is a setup, not a guarantee. Use the live status to spot when a 90% down day has occurred and watch for the confirming 90% up day over the following sessions.
Market Historians
The signal lit up at the April 2025 low — a 90% down day followed days later by a 98% up day — and at prior capitulations. Having the live reading plus the dated history makes it easy to check the pattern against the record.
Pro Tips
01
The up day is the buy trigger, not the down day
A 90% down day alone can be one of many in a decline — selling begets selling. What historically marks the turn is the upside thrust that follows: demand finally overwhelming supply. Wait for it.
02
Clusters matter more than singles
One 90% down day is noise; several in a short window is capitulation. The stress gauge — 90% down days in the last 25 sessions — is the read worth watching, not any single day.
03
It is a volume signal, so confirm with breadth
A 90% volume day driven by a handful of mega-caps is weaker than one with broad participation. Cross-check with the advance-decline line and new highs to be sure the thrust is broad, not concentrated.
04
Most 90% up days are not bottoms
They cluster near lows but also occur mid-trend. The forward record is favorable on average, but the highest-conviction setup is specifically the up day that follows recent 90% down days.
Common Issues & Solutions
Why doesn't this match Lowry's NYSE 90% days?▾
The classic Lowry signal uses NYSE composite volume and points. We compute upside vs downside volume across our own common-stock universe (~5,000 symbols) with daily data since 2010. The concept is identical; the universe, the volume definition (we use volume, not volume-and-points), and the start date differ, so individual dates can vary from NYSE-based versions.
Is a 90% down day bullish or bearish?▾
In isolation it is bearish — broad, forced selling. Its value is as a capitulation marker: it identifies the kind of washout from which sharp rebounds tend to launch. The bullish signal is the 90% up day that follows, not the down day itself.
Why volume instead of number of stocks?▾
Volume captures conviction — a 90% down day means most of the money traded that day went into declining stocks, not just most of the tickers. A day can be split on issue count but lopsided on volume, which is the more meaningful read of pressure.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is a 90% up day / 90% down day?▾
A 90% down day is a session where 90% or more of total up-plus-down volume is in declining stocks — broad, urgent selling that marks capitulation. A 90% up day is the mirror, with 90%+ of volume in advancing stocks. The concept was popularized by Lowry Research as a way to identify washouts and the demand thrusts that end them.
Was today a 90% up or down day?▾
The live status at the top of this page answers that with each market close: it shows today's upside-volume share and labels the day a 90% up day, a 90% down day, or normal, along with how many 90% down days have occurred in the last 25 sessions.
Is a 90% down day a buy signal?▾
Not by itself — a 90% down day is broad selling and can be one of several in a decline. The historical buy trigger is the 90% up day that follows a 90% down day within a few sessions: capitulation, then demand returning. On our data the S&P 500 was higher three months after roughly three-quarters of 90% up days.
What did the S&P 500 do after past 90% up days?▾
On our common-stock universe since 2010, the S&P 500 averaged about +1.5% one month and +4.4% three months after a 90% up day, and was higher three months later about 75% of the time. The strongest instances followed close behind a 90% down day, as at the April 2025 low.
How is it calculated and how often is it updated?▾
We sum the daily volume of advancing vs declining stocks across our common-stock universe and take upside volume as a share of up-plus-down volume. A reading of 90%+ is a 90% up day; 10% or less is a 90% down day. Updated after every US market close.
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Last updated: 2026-06-25