InternalsUpdated daily after close · as of 2026-07-06
Bear Market Breadth: How Many Stocks Are Really in a Bear Market?
The share of each index's members trading more than 20% below their own 252-session high — S&P 500, Nasdaq-100, Dow 30 and a Russell-2000-style cohort, daily since 2011 from our own price history. The index can sit at record highs while half its stocks are in private bear markets; this is the gauge that shows it — with the contrarian base rates behind every reading.
Today's reading
As of the July 6, 2026 close, the share of index members trading more than 20% below their own 252-session highs — S&P 500: 34.1% (84th percentile) · Nasdaq-100: 48.5% (92th percentile) · Dow Jones 30: 16.7% (74th percentile) · Russell 2000-style: 43.3% (59th percentile). Historically these readings were contrarian: the highest quartile of each index's history preceded above-baseline forward returns.
Source
Index memberships: State Street SPY/DIA holdings, Nasdaq's NDX list, cap-rank small-cap cohort; prices: our own ~5,600-symbol daily database (2011–present)
Methodology
Per member: close vs trailing 252-session high; bear = >20% below, correction = >10%; daily share per index; quartile forward-return study vs each index ETF. Current members applied across history (survivorship caveat)
Updates
Daily after US market close (~1pm PT)Last: 2026-07-06
Maintained & reviewed by Yuriy Matso — methodology shown on the page.
Bear breadth · S&P 5002026-07-06 · close
34.1%
Elevated
of S&P 500 members in a bear market · 84th percentile since 2011
In correction (10%+)
54.6%
Members
498
Record
96%
2020-03
Historically contrarian: days in this index's highest bear-share quartile preceded +6.5% avg SPY returns over the next quarter vs +3.1% baseline. Context, not a forecast.
Index:
01
Share of members in a bear market — S&P 500
Window:loading…
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SPY price (top, log)% in a bear market (>20% below 252-day high)% in a correction (>10%)
02
What followed each reading — S&P 500
Forward SPY returns from every day since 2011, bucketed by this index's own bear-share quartiles. The pattern is the familiar contrarian U: the highest readings — the scariest charts — preceded above-baseline returns. Deterioration is a caution flag for what you own, not a sell-the-index signal.
| Bear-share bucket | Next 21 sessions | Next 63 sessions | N |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lowest quartile (few stocks in bear) | +0.86% · 69%↑ | +2.12% · 79%↑ | 981 |
| Second quartile | +0.53% · 65%↑ | +1.66% · 68%↑ | 968 |
| Third quartile | +0.67% · 66%↑ | +2.20% · 69%↑ | 974 |
| Highest quartile (most stocks in bear) | +2.15% · 69%↑ | +6.52% · 84%↑ | 975 |
| All days (baseline) | +1.05% · 67%↑ | +3.08% · 75%↑ | 3,898 |
Forward returns on SPY closes; overlapping windows. Current members applied across history — the standard construction for this chart, which slightly flatters past readings (survivorship). Base rates, not signals.
How Bear Market Breadth Works
- 1Each stock vs its own highFor every member of the index, we track its closing price against its own trailing 252-session high. More than 20% below that high is the standard definition of an individual bear market; more than 10% below is a correction. The index can sit near record highs while many of its members are 20, 30, 40% off theirs.
- 2Count the share, dailyThe headline series is the percentage of members in a bear market each day, computed across the actual membership: S&P 500 and Dow 30 from State Street's daily ETF holdings, Nasdaq-100 from Nasdaq's own list, and a Russell-2000-style cohort (stocks ranked 1,001-3,000 by market cap in our universe — iShares walls its holdings file, so we build the honest approximation and label it).
- 3The survivorship caveat, stated plainlyToday's members are applied across history — the standard construction for this chart (including the viral versions), but it means past readings slightly understate historical stress: the weakest stocks of past years were later removed from the indexes. Treat deep history as directionally right, not precise.
- 4Attach the base ratesFor each index we bucket every day since 2011 by the bear share's own quartiles and show what the index ETF did over the following month and quarter. The pattern is contrarian: the highest readings preceded above-baseline returns — washed-out breadth marked exhaustion more often than acceleration.
Who Uses Bear Market Breadth
Divergence Watchers
The classic use: index near highs, bear share rising — a thinning market where fewer stocks carry the tape. This page turns that viral-chart moment into a daily series you can verify.
Dip Buyers
Extreme bear-share readings historically resolved with above-baseline forward returns on the index ETF — the washout-bounce pattern, quantified per index in the study tables.
Index Comparers
The four tabs read together: Nasdaq-100 stress with a calm Dow means concentrated tech pain; everything elevated at once is a market-wide event. The divergence between tabs is information no single-index chart gives you.
Skeptics of Viral Charts
When a "half of tech is in a bear market!" chart makes the rounds, this page is the check: the live number, its percentile, and what readings like it actually preceded.
Pro Tips
01
Percentile beats the raw number
Small caps live with 40%+ of members in bear markets in ordinary times; the Dow almost never does. Each index's reading only means something against its own history — the percentile on the hero card does that translation.
02
The base rates are contrarian
High bear share feels like a reason to sell; historically it preceded above-baseline index returns (the highest quartile of Nasdaq-100 readings averaged +6.9% over the next quarter vs +4.5% for all days). Deterioration is a caution flag for what you own, not a market-timing sell signal.
03
Watch the direction under a rising index
The dangerous configuration isn't a high bear share — it's a RISING bear share while the cap-weighted index makes new highs, which means leadership is narrowing. Pair with our Hidden Bear Index and Market Repair Flow for the market-wide version.
04
The 10% line leads the 20% line
The correction share (>10% below highs) moves first. When it swells while the bear share is still quiet, stress is building a bucket earlier.
Common Issues & Solutions
How is this different from the Hidden Bear Index?▾
Hidden Bear compares the equal-weight S&P (RSP) to the cap-weighted S&P and tracks our full ~4,800-stock universe's dispersion. This tool scopes the same "distance from own highs" idea to named index memberships — S&P 500, Nasdaq-100, Dow, small caps — so you can see which market tier carries the stress.
Why "Russell 2000-style" instead of the actual Russell 2000?▾
iShares blocks automated downloads of IWM's holdings, and FTSE Russell's official membership is licensed. Our cohort — stocks ranked 1,001-3,000 by market cap in our universe — matches the Russell 2000's construction principle and is labeled as the approximation it is.
Does the history account for index changes?▾
No — current members are applied across history, like every public version of this chart. That slightly flatters the past (removed weak stocks don't count). We state it rather than hide it; the recent readings, which drive the tool, are unaffected.
Why does the Russell tab start later?▾
The small-cap cohort needs enough of our universe's price history for a trailing 252-session high across 2,000 names; its clean series starts in 2013 versus 2011 for the large-cap indexes.
Frequently Asked Questions
What percentage of stocks are in a bear market right now?▾
The live reading is on this page for four index tiers, updated after every close. As of early July 2026: roughly a third of S&P 500 members, about half of Nasdaq-100 members (a 92nd-percentile reading), around 43% of small caps, and a sixth of the Dow were more than 20% below their own 252-session highs.
What does it mean when a stock is "in a bear market"?▾
The standard convention: its price is more than 20% below its own recent peak (here, the trailing 252-session high). It is a per-stock measure — an index can sit at record highs while a large share of its members are individually in bear markets, which is exactly the divergence this tool tracks.
Is a high share of stocks in bear markets bearish for the index?▾
Historically, no — the opposite on average. Bucketing every day since 2011 by each index's own bear-share quartiles, the highest quartile preceded above-baseline forward returns on the index ETF. Washed-out breadth has marked exhaustion more often than the start of worse. Base rates, not advice.
Where does the membership data come from?▾
S&P 500 and Dow 30 from State Street's daily SPY/DIA holdings, the Nasdaq-100 from Nasdaq's own list, and the small-cap cohort from our market-cap rankings (Russell-2000-style, labeled as an approximation). Prices are from our self-maintained ~5,600-symbol database.
How often is this updated?▾
Daily after the US close: memberships are refreshed from the sources, every member's drawdown from its 252-session high recomputed, and the shares, percentiles and studies rebuilt across the full 2011-present history.
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Last updated: 2026-07-06