Options BetsOct 20, 2026 · 09:37:40 ET · XPLikely read

XP deep in-the-money calls bought: a stock-like bullish bet into November

Logged Oct 20, 2026 at 09:37 ET with XP at $30.45. The position it leaves is long 4,750 Nov 20 22 calls, bullish on XP: the prints, what most likely happened, scenarios to expiry and the payoff follow.

XP betOpen · +$18K on Oct 20

Now long 4,750 Nov 20 22 calls: bullish on XP.

Money behind it: $4.35Mpremium paid, all it can lose; behaves like 419,472 XP shares long today ($12.77M)
Potential profit: Unlimited+$1.83M if XP rises 15% by Nov 20
Max risk: −$4.35Mthe premium, if XP ends at or below $22.00 on Nov 20
Capital behind it: $4.35M$4.35M premium paid
Return, 31 days: +42%on the premium paid, if XP rises 15% by Nov 20; −8% if flat
Breakeven: $31.16+2.3% from $30.45
The trade: $4.35Mpremium across 4,750 contracts; −$4.35M net cash paid

Side read from the fill, not reported by the tape. Computed from the logged prints. Not advice.

The trade

Bought Nov 20 22 calls deep in the money, in five prints over a few minutes, every one at the ask.

Time (ET)	Option	Qty	Price	Exchange	Market	Delta	IV	XP	Read
09:40:33	Nov 20 22 call	1,000	9.20	BEST	9.00 × 9.20	0.88	111.4%	30.45	Bought
09:40:10	Nov 20 22 call	1,000	9.20	BEST	9.00 × 9.20	0.88	111.4%	30.45	Bought
09:39:21	Nov 20 22 call	850	9.20	BEST	9.00 × 9.20	0.88	111.4%	30.45	Bought
09:38:50	Nov 20 22 call	1,000	9.20	BEST	9.00 × 9.20	0.88	111.4%	30.45	Bought
09:37:40	Nov 20 22 call	900	9.00	NYSE	8.00 × 9.00	0.90	99.4%	30.45	Bought
Total	Nov 20 22 call	4,750	9.16	2 exchanges	8.81 × 9.16	0.88	109.2%	$4.35M premium

Every print of the order as it crossed the tape, in the time-and-sales layout. Prices in green printed at the ask, in red at the bid. Delta and implied volatility are solved from each print's own price against XP at $30.45 (Black-Scholes, fed funds, no dividend), so they differ slightly from a broker's. Totals weight price and quote by size. "Read" is our reading of the side, explained next.

What most likely happened

At 09:37 ET, 4,750 Nov 20 22 calls traded together in one order across 2 exchanges, the same size on every leg: one trader, one decision.

Likely read. A buyer took deep in-the-money November calls at the ask in the first minutes of trading, print after print, the way a trader does who wants the position more than a good price. Calls this deep move almost one for one with the stock, so the trade works like buying XP shares with far less cash and a loss capped at the premium. XP's near-dated options price a large event before the end of October, and the buyer chose to own the upside through it. The same morning a large holder put a collar on shares through that event, so the day's flow mixed new bullish exposure with protection.

The evidence. Every print filled at its ask, and the buyer kept paying the ask as it stepped up. The order filled 0% of the way from the price at which the read's initiator crosses the whole quote (−$4.35M) to the price at which they are paid it (−$4.18M): below the midpoint, which supports the read.

The other read. A trader who had sold these calls earlier bought them back in a hurry, closing a short. The next open-interest count at the strike settles it.

Scenarios to the Nov 20 expiry

Where XP would end if it moved evenly to each level by Nov 20, 2026, and what the position would make or lose there. The solid line is the breakeven.

XP at expiry: the price and what the position makes or loses

Closes through Oct 20 · scenarios to Nov 20

XPXP −15%: $25.88, −$2.51MXP −10%: $27.41, −$1.78MXP −5%: $28.93, −$1.06MXP flat: $30.45, −$338KXP +5%: $31.97, +$385KXP +10%: $33.50, +$1.11MXP +15%: $35.02, +$1.83MBreakeven $31.16

XP closes on today's split basis, the one its strikes use, with even paths to each level by expiry. Illustrations, not forecasts.

XP at expiry: the price and what the position makes or loses

Closes through Oct 20 · scenarios to Nov 20

XPXP −15%: $25.88, −$2.51MXP −10%: $27.41, −$1.78MXP −5%: $28.93, −$1.06MXP flat: $30.45, −$338KXP +5%: $31.97, +$385KXP +10%: $33.50, +$1.11MXP +15%: $35.02, +$1.83MBreakeven $31.16

XP closes on today's split basis, the one its strikes use, with even paths to each level by expiry. Illustrations, not forecasts.

XP by Nov 20	XP	Position at expiry
−15%	$25.88	−$2.51M
−10%	$27.41	−$1.78M
−5%	$28.93	−$1.06M
flat	$30.45	−$338K
+5%	$31.97	+$385K
+10%	$33.50	+$1.11M
+15%	$35.02	+$1.83M

What the position makes or loses

Breakeven at the Nov 20 expiry: XP at $31.16 (+2.3% from entry). Behaves like long 419,472 XP shares ($12.77M).

Profit or loss by XP's price

Hover the chart for any price

At the Nov 20 expiryToday (Oct 20), at the options' current volatility

Profit or loss of the open position against what it was opened for, across XP prices from $20.46 to $35.02. The second axis is the move from the trade's price. Black-Scholes on each leg's implied volatility at the fed funds rate.

Since the trade

First mark on Oct 20, 2026: +$18K. The chart starts with the second session.

Source

Options time and sales from a U.S. brokerage's trading platform, entered by hand. Marks from daily option bars; the closing price from our price files. Page data as of Oct 20, 2026. All bets →

XP betOpen · +$18K on Oct 20

Now long 4,750 Nov 20 22 calls: bullish on XP.

Money behind it: $4.35Mpremium paid, all it can lose; behaves like 419,472 XP shares long today ($12.77M)
Potential profit: Unlimited+$1.83M if XP rises 15% by Nov 20
Max risk: −$4.35Mthe premium, if XP ends at or below $22.00 on Nov 20
Capital behind it: $4.35M$4.35M premium paid
Return, 31 days: +42%on the premium paid, if XP rises 15% by Nov 20; −8% if flat
Breakeven: $31.16+2.3% from $30.45
The trade: $4.35Mpremium across 4,750 contracts; −$4.35M net cash paid

Side read from the fill, not reported by the tape. Computed from the logged prints. Not advice.