Gold Price
The gold price in US dollars per ounce, with the record back to 1960 before and after inflation, and every 20% fall from a record since gold began trading freely in 1971.
Latest reading
On October 5, 2026, gold futures settled at $4,157 an ounce, 21.8% below the record close of $5,318 on January 29, 2026, and −7.1% over the past month. The World Bank monthly average for September 2026 was $4,319, 14.0% below its February 2026 record of $5,020. After inflation, that record is also the highest on file: $5,122 in August 2026 dollars, against $2,892 for the January 1980 peak.
Sources, methodology & freshnessCOMEX gold futures, front month (Yahoo Finance, daily since 2000); World Bank Commodity Price Data, monthly average gold price since 1960 (CC BY 4.0); CPI-U from the BLS · Daily after the US close; the World Bank series monthlyData as of 2026-10-05 · Open ↓Close ↑
COMEX front-month settlement, in a bear market: 21.8% below the January 29, 2026 record.
Gold price, daily since 2000
Daily settlements of the front-month COMEX gold contract on a log scale, where equal steps are equal percentage moves. The record close was $5,318 on January 29, 2026, and gold is +6.3% from October 3, 2025. Over the last 24 months the front month averaged 0.5% above the World Bank's monthly average, roughly the cost of carrying gold to the delivery date.
Gold since 1960, before and after inflation
Until August 1971 the dollar was convertible into gold at a fixed price for foreign central banks, and the monthly average stayed between $35 and $43. The market record starts after that. In August 2026 dollars, the January 1980 average of $675 is worth $2,892. The February 2026 average set the record both ways: $5,020 as quoted and $5,122 after inflation.
Every 20% decline since 1971
A decline counts once the monthly average closes 20% below its running record. It bottoms at the lowest month before the record is regained, and the next one can only start after a new record. Five declines since 1971 have run their course. Their full fall from the record had a median of 39.3% and an average of 36.8%. Measured from the first month 20% down, the median further fall was 23.6%. Two of them (1973 and 2008) bottomed in the month they crossed the line. The 1980 decline fell another 50.5% and took 20 years to reach its low.
| Record | 20% down | Trough | Full decline | After inflation | Daily closes | To trough | Record regained |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 1973 · $120 | Nov 1973 | Nov 1973 · $95 | −20.8% | −23.7% | – | 4 mo | Jan 1974 · 6 mo |
| Dec 1974 · $184 | Sep 1975 | Aug 1976 · $110 | −40.2% | −45.9% | – | 20 mo | Mar 1978 · 3y 3m |
| Jan 1980 · $675 | Apr 1980 | Jul 1999 · $256 | −62.1% | −83.0% | – | 19y 6m | May 2006 · 26y 4m |
| Mar 2008 · $968 | Nov 2008 | Nov 2008 · $761 | −21.4% | −21.3% | −29.7% | 8 mo | Sep 2009 · 18 mo |
| Sep 2011 · $1,772 | May 2013 | Dec 2015 · $1,076 | −39.3% | −42.1% | −44.4% | 4y 3m | Jul 2020 · 8y 10m |
| Feb 2026 · $5,020 | Not yet | Jul 2026 · $4,073 | −18.9% so far | −20.2% | −24.9% | 5 mo so far | Not yet |
Jul 1973 · $120
−20.8%
Full decline
- 20% down
- Nov 1973
- Trough
- Nov 1973 · $95
- After inflation
- −23.7%
- Daily closes
- –
- To trough
- 4 mo
- Record regained
- Jan 1974 · 6 mo
Dec 1974 · $184
−40.2%
Full decline
- 20% down
- Sep 1975
- Trough
- Aug 1976 · $110
- After inflation
- −45.9%
- Daily closes
- –
- To trough
- 20 mo
- Record regained
- Mar 1978 · 3y 3m
Jan 1980 · $675
−62.1%
Full decline
- 20% down
- Apr 1980
- Trough
- Jul 1999 · $256
- After inflation
- −83.0%
- Daily closes
- –
- To trough
- 19y 6m
- Record regained
- May 2006 · 26y 4m
Mar 2008 · $968
−21.4%
Full decline
- 20% down
- Nov 2008
- Trough
- Nov 2008 · $761
- After inflation
- −21.3%
- Daily closes
- −29.7%
- To trough
- 8 mo
- Record regained
- Sep 2009 · 18 mo
Sep 2011 · $1,772
−39.3%
Full decline
- 20% down
- May 2013
- Trough
- Dec 2015 · $1,076
- After inflation
- −42.1%
- Daily closes
- −44.4%
- To trough
- 4y 3m
- Record regained
- Jul 2020 · 8y 10m
Feb 2026 · $5,020
−18.9% so far
Full decline
- 20% down
- Not yet
- Trough
- Jul 2026 · $4,073
- After inflation
- −20.2%
- Daily closes
- −24.9%
- To trough
- 5 mo so far
- Record regained
- Not yet
What followed the first 20% month
Twelve months after the first month 20% down, the median change in the monthly average was −4.1% across five declines, and 40% were higher. Over every 12-month window since 1971 the median was +5.7%, with 61% higher (650 overlapping windows). Thirty-six months on, the median was +36.8% against +13.8% for all months.
Five cases is too few to call this an edge in either direction. The spread is the useful part: the same signal came before a quick recovery and before a decline that lasted two decades. History here describes past episodes and is not a forecast.
The run into each record
In the 24 months into February 2026 the monthly average rose +148%, a faster two-year gain than 96% of all months since 1971. The largest on record is the run into January 1980, +290% in two years. A steep run is common to the peaks that preceded the deepest declines, and also to peaks that were followed by mild ones, so it describes the setup without deciding the ending.
| Record month | 24-month gain | 12-month gain | 24 months, after inflation | Percentile, all months |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 1973 · $120 | +193% | +82% | +169% | 98th |
| Dec 1974 · $184 | +188% | +72% | +136% | 97th |
| Jan 1980 · $675 | +290% | +197% | +214% | 100th |
| Mar 2008 · $968 | +74% | +48% | +63% | 90th |
| Sep 2011 · $1,772 | +78% | +39% | +69% | 90th |
| Feb 2026 · $5,020 | +148% | +73% | +136% | 96th |
Jul 1973 · $120
+193%
24-month gain
- 12-month gain
- +82%
- 24 months, after inflation
- +169%
- Percentile, all months
- 98th
Dec 1974 · $184
+188%
24-month gain
- 12-month gain
- +72%
- 24 months, after inflation
- +136%
- Percentile, all months
- 97th
Jan 1980 · $675
+290%
24-month gain
- 12-month gain
- +197%
- 24 months, after inflation
- +214%
- Percentile, all months
- 100th
Mar 2008 · $968
+74%
24-month gain
- 12-month gain
- +48%
- 24 months, after inflation
- +63%
- Percentile, all months
- 90th
Sep 2011 · $1,772
+78%
24-month gain
- 12-month gain
- +39%
- 24 months, after inflation
- +69%
- Percentile, all months
- 90th
Feb 2026 · $5,020
+148%
24-month gain
- 12-month gain
- +73%
- 24 months, after inflation
- +136%
- Percentile, all months
- 96th
What moves the gold price
Gold pays no interest, so its main competitor is the return on safe bonds after inflation. When real yields rise, holding gold costs more in income forgone; when they fall, the cost shrinks. It is priced in dollars, so a stronger dollar tends to weigh on it.
Demand comes from central banks, from investors through gold ETFs, and from speculators in futures, whose net position the gold COT report tracks each week. The research on what separated past corrections is in Gold: buying opportunity or deeper decline?
Sources and limits
The daily price is the front-month futures settlement, which sits slightly above spot by the cost of carry. The history before 2000 comes from the World Bank's monthly averages, which sit below the daily highs and above the daily lows, so a decline measured on them is always shallower than the same decline on daily prices.
The inflation adjustment uses the US consumer price index, which suits a US investor; a buyer in another currency saw a different real price. The World Bank data are licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 and credited to the World Bank.
COMEX front-month settlement, in a bear market: 21.8% below the January 29, 2026 record.
How Gold Price Works
- 1Today's price from the futures marketThe latest reading is the settlement of the front-month COMEX gold futures contract, the price most traders quote as "the gold price". Its history is never back-adjusted, so its levels are the dollars per ounce that actually traded. It runs a little above spot because a futures buyer pays for storage and financing until delivery, and the page reports that gap.
- 2The long record from the World BankBefore 2000 the daily futures record on public feeds runs out, so the history comes from the World Bank's Commodity Price Data, the monthly average gold price since January 1960. A monthly average smooths the daily extremes, so its peaks sit below the highest daily price and its troughs above the lowest.
- 3After inflation, month by monthThe inflation-adjusted line divides each month's average by that month's consumer price index (CPI-U) and restates it in dollars of the latest CPI month. Months that CPI has not reached yet stay nominal, and nothing is carried forward.
- 4Declines found by one ruleA decline counts once the monthly average closes 20% below its running record. It bottoms at the lowest month before the record is regained, and a new episode can only start after a new record. The rule runs from August 1971, when the dollar stopped being convertible into gold for foreign central banks and a free market price could set records.