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Options BetsNov 11, 2026 · 12:09:39 ET · QQQ

QQQ calls likely bought for a rally into December

Logged Nov 11, 2026 at 12:09 ET with QQQ at $692.68. The position it leaves is long 10,000 Dec 18 744 calls, bullish on the Nasdaq-100 if opened long: the prints, what most likely happened, scenarios to expiry and the payoff follow.

QQQ betMarks start after the next close

Now long 10,000 Dec 18 744 calls: bullish on the Nasdaq-100 if opened long.

Money behind it
$3.53Mpremium paid, all it can lose; behaves like 155,400 QQQ shares long today ($107.64M)
Potential profit
Unlimited+$49.05M if the Nasdaq-100 rises 15% by Dec 18
Max risk
−$3.53Mthe premium, if QQQ ends at or below $744.00 on Dec 18
Capital behind it
$3.53M$3.53M premium paid
Return, 37 days
+1390%on the premium paid, if the Nasdaq-100 rises 15% by Dec 18; −100% if flat
Breakeven
$747.53+7.9% from $692.68
The trade
$3.53Mpremium across 10,000 contracts; −$3.53M net cash paid

Side read from the fill, not reported by the tape. Computed from the logged prints. Not advice.

01

The trade

Single call: buy the Dec 18 744 call, one displayed block on AMEX with no spread condition.

Time (ET)OptionQtyPriceExchangeMarketDeltaIVQQQRead
12:09:39Dec 18 744 call10,0003.53AMEX3.50 × 3.540.1520.3%692.68Bought
TotalDec 18 744 call10,0003.53AMEX3.50 × 3.540.1620.3%$3.53M premium

Every print of the order as it crossed the tape, in the time-and-sales layout. Prices in green printed at the ask, in red at the bid. Delta and implied volatility are solved from each print's own price against QQQ at $692.68 (Black-Scholes, fed funds, no dividend), so they differ slightly from a broker's. Totals weight price and quote by size. "Read" is our reading of the side, explained next.

02

What most likely happened

At 12:09 ET, 10,000 Dec 18 744 calls traded together in one order on AMEX, the same size on every leg: one trader, one decision.

Open interest before the session: Dec 18 744 call 1,186 with 10,000 traded. A strike that held about the traded size was being closed; one that held almost none was being opened.

Our read is a likely new bullish call position. The block printed above the midpoint of its quote and close to the offer, which supports a buyer-initiated interpretation, although it did not trade at the ask. The block alone was several times the prior open interest in the series, and session volume ran higher still, which supports new activity. The strike sits well above the fund's price and the expiry is a little over five weeks out, so the position needs a further Nasdaq-100 rally by the December expiration and pays nothing on a flat market. It printed on a day the fund was already up sharply, so the buyer paid for upside after the move had started. If opened long, the position gains from a rise in the fund and from higher implied volatility before expiration, and loses its entire premium if the fund finishes below the strike. The expiration breakeven lies above the strike by the premium paid; the strike itself is not a price target. Opening status and initiator direction are inferred; the payoff and exposure assume a new long position.

The evidence. One displayed block, listed in the platform's largest-trades view with no spread condition. Its execution quote comes from the same tape row. A later option-chain screenshot supplies prior open interest and cumulative session volume at the strike; its quotes, taken after the fund had moved, are not used to classify the execution. Counts are frozen at capture and are not refreshed with daily marks. The platform clock is interpreted as Pacific time and converted to Eastern; the chain capture time is the screenshot file's time, converted the same way. The order filled 25% of the way from the price at which the read's initiator crosses the whole quote (−$3.54M) to the price at which they are paid it (−$3.50M): below the midpoint, which supports the read.

The other read. The block could be seller-initiated: a call written against a long position in the fund to collect premium after a sharp rally, which is a common overwrite at a strike this far above the market and says the seller expects the advance to slow. It could also be one leg of a larger package whose other legs printed elsewhere or at another time, or the new side of a roll up from a lower strike. Intraday opening and closing activity can both lift volume above prior open interest, and the tape cannot establish the initiating account or its purpose.

03

Scenarios to the Dec 18 expiry

Where QQQ would end if it moved evenly to each level by Dec 18, 2026, and what the position would make or lose there. The solid line is the breakeven.

QQQ at expiry: the price and what the position makes or loses

Closes through Nov 10, last trade 12:42 ET · scenarios to Dec 18
POSITION LOSES AT EXPIRYPOSITION PROFITS AT EXPIRY588.8692.7796.6AugSepOctNovDecTrade$694.55$588.78 · −$3.53M$623.41 · −$3.53M$658.05 · −$3.53M$692.68 · −$3.53M$727.31 · −$3.53M$761.95 · +$14.42M$796.58 · +$49.05Mbreakeven $747.53
QQQthe Nasdaq-100 −15%: $588.78, −$3.53Mthe Nasdaq-100 −10%: $623.41, −$3.53Mthe Nasdaq-100 −5%: $658.05, −$3.53Mthe Nasdaq-100 flat: $692.68, −$3.53Mthe Nasdaq-100 +5%: $727.31, −$3.53Mthe Nasdaq-100 +10%: $761.95, +$14.42Mthe Nasdaq-100 +15%: $796.58, +$49.05MBreakeven $747.53
QQQ closes on today's split basis, the one its strikes use, with even paths to each level by expiry. Illustrations, not forecasts.
the Nasdaq-100 by Dec 18QQQPosition at expiry
−15%$588.78−$3.53M
−10%$623.41−$3.53M
−5%$658.05−$3.53M
flat$692.68−$3.53M
+5%$727.31−$3.53M
+10%$761.95+$14.42M
+15%$796.58+$49.05M
04

What the position makes or loses

Breakeven at the Dec 18 expiry: QQQ at $747.53 (+7.9% from entry). Behaves like long 155,400 QQQ shares ($107.64M).

Profit or loss by QQQ's price
Hover the chart for any price
$0+$20M+$40M+$60M$600−13%$650−6%$700+1%$750+8%QQQ price at expiry (top) · move from the trade (bottom)entry $692.68breakeven $747.53
At the Dec 18 expiryToday (Nov 11), at the options' current volatility

Profit or loss of the open position against what it was opened for, across QQQ prices from $588.78 to $799.86. The second axis is the move from the trade's price. Black-Scholes on each leg's implied volatility at the fed funds rate.

05

Since the trade

The first mark comes with the close on Nov 11, 2026. Marks run every session until the Dec 18 expiry.

06

Source

Options time and sales and an option-chain snapshot from a U.S. brokerage's trading platform, entered by hand. Marks from daily option bars; the closing price from our price files. Page data as of Nov 11, 2026. All bets →