Credit Spreads Tracker: HYG/LQD Ratio, Credit Stress & Risk-Off Signal
Free credit-spreads tracker. The HYG / LQD ratio with rolling 1-year and 3-year z-scores classifies the credit market as Risk On, Neutral, or Risk Off. When high-yield bonds underperform investment grade, credit can signal stress ahead of equities — a widely watched early-warning indicator. 15 years of daily history (2011–present): the primary HY/IG ratio, regime classification, per-ETF returns across the credit complex, and four supporting ratios.
Underlying ETFs: HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond), LQD (iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond), and seven peers across the credit and Treasury complex. Pair this read with the VIX term structure, Hindenburg Omen, and sector health for cross-asset confirmation.
Today's reading
As of market close on June 5, 2026, the HYG/LQD credit ratio is 0.7343 — +0.64σ vs its 1-year history and +0.93σ vs its 3-year history. That puts the spread regime at NORMAL (day 8), a neutral credit read. The ratio rose from 0.7334 the prior session. The series covers 3,838 trading days since 2011.
Credit spreads today (2026-06-05): the HYG/LQD ratio is 0.7343, with z-scores of +0.64σ over 1 year and +0.93σ over 3 years. Spread regime NORMAL (day 8) maps to a NEUTRAL credit read.
HY/IG ratio near its long-run mean. No directional credit signal.
- TIGHT (z ≥ +1σ)
- Spreads compressed; HY outperforming IG. Risk On.
- NORMAL (-1σ to +1σ)
- Within typical range; no directional credit signal.
- WIDE (-2σ to -1σ)
- HY underperforming; spreads widening. Risk Off forming.
- STRESS (z ≤ -2σ)
- Severe stress; historically coincides with equity drawdowns.
HYG / LQD Ratio — primary credit-stress signal
HYG/LQD chart summary
Static read of the HYG/LQD ratio chart above: lookback period changes and the most recent regime transitions classified from the rolling 1-year z-score. Both panels render at page load so search engines and AI crawlers see the structured numbers without executing chart JS.
HYG/LQD ratio period changes
| Last close | 0.7343 | 2026-06-05 |
| 6-month change | +1.17% | |
| 1-year change | -0.31% | |
| 2-year change | +1.76% | |
Recent regime transitions
| 2026-05-27 | TIGHT→NORMAL |
| 2026-05-18 | NORMAL→TIGHT |
| 2026-05-01 | TIGHT→NORMAL |
| 2026-04-30 | NORMAL→TIGHT |
| 2026-03-10 | WIDE→NORMAL |
Regime classified from the rolling 1-year HYG/LQD z-score.
Three ways to watch credit spreads
The metric on this page is an ETF price ratio: HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF) divided by LQD (iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF). It's a tradeable, freely available proxy for credit-market risk appetite — but it is not the same thing as a traditional credit spread, and a professional desk would typically watch all three of the views below in parallel.
Traditional credit spreads — like the ICE BofA US High Yield Index Option-Adjusted Spread (OAS) published by FRED as BAMLH0A0HYM2 — measure the actual yield differential between high-yield bonds and comparable Treasuries, controlled for embedded options. Bloomberg and Refinitiv terminals additionally provide intraday bond-level pricing and curve analytics that neither this page nor FRED can match.
| Property | HYG/LQD ETF proxy (this page) | ICE BofA HY OAS (FRED) | Terminal workflow (Bloomberg, Refinitiv) |
|---|---|---|---|
| What it measures | Relative ETF price performance of HY vs IG | Actual yield premium of HY bonds vs Treasuries | Real-time bond yields, OAS, curves, issuer-level data |
| Update cadence | Daily close on this page; ETFs trade intraday | Daily, with one-business-day publication lag | Real-time intraday |
| Tradeable | Yes (the underlying ETFs) | No (it's a published statistic) | N/A (workflow tool — execution happens elsewhere) |
| Affected by ETF flows / mechanics | Yes — premium/discount, AP arbitrage, NAV drift | No — pure bond pricing | No — issuer-level pricing |
| Direction during stress | Falls (HY underperforms IG) | Rises (HY yields spike vs Treasuries) | Both views available |
| Cost | Free | Free | Subscription |
| Best for | Quick risk-on/off read for retail traders | Academic / longer-horizon analysis (data back to 1996) | Professional desks needing intraday execution context |
For most discretionary purposes, the ETF ratio is sufficient and timelier than FRED OAS. For research that requires literal spread levels (basis points over Treasuries) or that needs to reproduce academic studies, prefer the FRED OAS series. For real-time execution on individual issuers, a terminal is the right tool.
Historical event study — did credit see it coming?
How well credit spreads have signaled equity drawdowns over the past two decades. The signal has worked clearly in some episodes (2007–2008, sector-level in 2015–16) and barely registered in others (2020 was coincident, 2024 was cross-asset volatility). Use this as context for any single read — credit is one input among several, not a standalone forecast.
| Event | Window | HY OAS before | HY OAS peak | SPY drawdown | Lead/lag read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2007–2009 Global Financial Crisis | Jul 2007 – Mar 2009 | ~3% in mid-2007 | ~21.8% (Nov 2008) | –55% peak-to-trough | Credit led — HY OAS started widening months before the equity peak in October 2007. |
| 2011 European Debt Crisis | Jul – Oct 2011 | ~5% in mid-2011 | ~9% (Oct 2011) | –19% peak-to-trough | Roughly coincident — credit and equities widened/sold off together over a few weeks. |
| 2015–2016 Energy / EM Stress | Jul 2015 – Feb 2016 | ~5% in mid-2015 | ~9% (Feb 2016) | –14% peak-to-trough | Credit-led at the sector level — energy HY blew out well before broad equity weakness. |
| Q4 2018 selloff | Sep – Dec 2018 | ~3.2% in Sep 2018 | ~5.4% (Dec 2018) | –19% peak-to-trough | Roughly coincident — modest credit signal relative to the depth of the equity drawdown. |
| 2020 COVID crash | Feb – Mar 2020 | ~3.5% in Feb 2020 | ~11% (late Mar 2020) | –34% in 33 days | Largely coincident — both moved violently in the same weeks. Credit didn't provide much lead time. |
| 2022 rate-hike cycle | Jan – Oct 2022 | ~3% in Jan 2022 | ~6% (Sep 2022) | –25% peak-to-trough | Modest credit signal vs depth of equity drawdown — this was primarily a duration / discount-rate event. |
| Aug 2024 yen carry unwind | Aug 2024 | ~3% beforehand | ~3.5% (no notable spike) | –8% (brief) | Credit barely moved — this was a cross-asset volatility/leverage event, not a credit event. |
Approximate peak HY OAS values from the ICE BofA US High Yield Index Option-Adjusted Spread (FRED: BAMLH0A0HYM2). Figures are rounded for readability — consult FRED for exact values. SPY drawdowns measured peak-to-trough on SPY price.
Takeaway: credit-spread widening has been a useful but inconsistent leading indicator. It worked best in episodes where the underlying stress was credit-driven (2007–08, sector-level energy in 2015–16). It worked poorly when the equity drawdown was driven by something else — discount-rate shocks (2022) or pure volatility/leverage events (2020, 2024). Pair this with VIX, breadth, and price action.
Credit complex — recent returns
| Symbol | Description | Last | 1d | 1w | 1m | 3m | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HYG | HY Corp | $79.43 | -0.50% | -1.10% | -0.91% | -0.33% | -1.49% |
| JNK | HY Bond | $95.73 | -0.44% | -1.07% | -0.84% | -0.19% | -1.52% |
| LQD | IG Corp | $108.17 | -0.62% | -1.09% | -0.93% | -1.81% | -1.83% |
| EMB | EM Bond | $95.40 | -0.73% | -1.07% | -0.90% | -0.37% | -0.91% |
| BKLN | Sr Loan | $20.46 | -0.20% | -0.05% | -0.87% | +0.49% | -2.57% |
| AGG | Aggregate | $98.17 | -0.50% | -0.90% | -1.03% | -1.95% | -1.71% |
| TLT | 20Y Treasury | $85.06 | -0.51% | -0.82% | -1.18% | -3.84% | -2.41% |
| IEF | 7-10Y Treasury | $93.62 | -0.53% | -1.09% | -1.45% | -2.93% | -2.64% |
| SHY | 1-3Y Treasury | $81.86 | -0.21% | -0.53% | -0.53% | -1.05% | -1.16% |
Supporting ratios
Four cross-confirmation ratios alongside the primary HYG/LQD signal. Each card shows the most recent close, the period change over the selected time range, and a one-line read of what the ratio captures. Use them to distinguish credit-driven moves (HYG/LQD, JNK/AGG) from rates-driven moves (TLT/HYG) and from emerging-market stress (EMB/LQD).
HYG / LQD
0.7343HY corp vs IG corp — primary credit-stress signal
JNK / AGG
0.9751Junk vs aggregate bond — alternative HY/IG view
EMB / LQD
0.8819EM bonds vs US IG — emerging-market credit appetite
TLT / HYG
1.0709Long Treasuries vs HY — rates duration vs credit risk
How Credit Spreads Tracker Works
- 1Pull daily prices for nine credit and Treasury ETFsEach trading day after the close, we fetch closing prices for HYG, JNK, LQD, EMB, BKLN, AGG, TLT, IEF, and SHY directly from the TradeStation market-data API.
- 2Compute the HYG/LQD ratio plus three supporting ratios with rolling z-scoresThe primary signal is HYG (high-yield corporates) divided by LQD (investment-grade corporates). We z-score it against rolling 252-day (1-year) and 756-day (3-year) windows. Three supporting ratios — JNK/AGG, EMB/LQD, and TLT/HYG — give cross-confirmation.
- 3Classify the current regime and surface as Risk On or Risk OffZ-scores ≥ +1σ are TIGHT (Risk On). Between -1σ and +1σ is NORMAL (Neutral). -1σ to -2σ is WIDE (Risk Off). Below -2σ is STRESS (severe Risk Off). The big label at the top of the page tells you which regime credit is currently in.