US vs International Stocks
Whether US stocks (SPY) or the rest of the developed world (EFA) is leading, with dividends. A rising line means the US is pulling ahead. The record runs back to 1975, with every leadership stretch, how much of each the dollar supplied, and what followed the widest US leads.
Today's reading
As of October 22, 2026, the S&P 500 fund (SPY) has returned 15.4% a year over ten years against 9.2% for developed markets abroad (EFA), dividends included: a US lead of +6.3 pts a year. This year SPY is +12.9% and EFA +9.1%. By the page's 25% rule the US still lead, a stretch that began in June 2008; the fund ratio is −9.4% from its record of December 24, 2024. On the long record through December 2025, the ten-year gap of +6.1 pts a year was wider than 68% of readings since 1984; the widest was +12.3 pts in December 1998.
Sources, methodology & freshnessSPY and EFA daily closes with Yahoo dividend records; Ken French, Fama/French Research Factors and International Research Returns (index of developed markets outside the US, in dollars and local currency, and 21 country indexes) · Daily after market close; the long record when Ken French publishes new monthsData as of 2026-10-22 · Open ↓Close ↑
A year, SPY over EFA across ten years with dividends (15.4% against 9.2%). The ratio is −9.4% from its record of December 24, 2024; the lead changes hands at 25% below it, −11.7% from here.
Descriptions, not forecasts. Points are the US annual return minus the international one. A stretch ends only after a 25% move the other way, a rule fixed before the record was read.
SPY against EFA, daily
The investable version, daily, with dividends reinvested in both funds, starting at 1.0 on December 31, 2009. It reached 3.32 on December 24, 2024 and stands at 3.01. The dashed line sits 25% below that record: a close past it would end the stretch under the page's rule.
US against international stocks since 1975
The long record: the US market against developed markets outside the US, both weighted by market value with dividends, monthly through December 2025. It moved closely with the fund pair (monthly correlation 0.94 over 192 months), though French's index includes Canada and EFA does not. The second line measures international stocks in their own currencies, so the space between the two lines is the dollar.
Every leadership stretch
The rule finds 11 stretches since 1975: 6 led by the US and 5 by international stocks. The median US stretch lasted 4.2 years and the median international one 2 years. The current US stretch, from June 2008, is the longest on the record at 17.5 years through December 2025. The last column is the dollar's move over each stretch: when it rose, foreign returns shrank in dollars.
| Stretch | Leader | Length | US, a year | International, a year | Ratio | Dollar |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 2008 – Dec 2025 (open) | US | 17.5 years | +12.2% | +5.6% | +191% | +33% |
| Jan 2002 – Jun 2008 | International | 6.4 years | +4.8% | +13.8% | −41% | −36% |
| Jun 1994 – Jan 2002 | US | 7.6 years | +14.3% | +3.1% | +118% | +33% |
| Jan 1993 – Jun 1994 | International | 17 months | +3.3% | +29.6% | −27% | −11% |
| Nov 1988 – Jan 1993 | US | 4.2 years | +15.9% | −3.7% | +117% | +8% |
| Feb 1985 – Nov 1988 | International | 3.8 years | +14.1% | +43.6% | −58% | −46% |
| Mar 1984 – Feb 1985 | US | 11 months | +21.4% | −4.8% | +25% | +20% |
| Jun 1983 – Mar 1984 | International | 9 months | −8.1% | +32.4% | −24% | −1% |
| Oct 1978 – Jun 1983 | US | 4.7 years | +22.2% | +7.8% | +80% | +38% |
| Oct 1976 – Oct 1978 | International | 2 years | +3.3% | +35.9% | −42% | −27% |
| Feb 1975 – Oct 1976 | US | 1.7 years | +20.1% | −3.5% | +44% | +14% |
Ratio: the change in US over international total return across the stretch. Dollar: the change in the dollar against the basket of currencies in the international index (French's local-currency index over the dollar one). Annual returns over stretches shorter than a year are annualized.
The stocks or the dollar?
Over the ten years to December 2025, international stocks returned 8.6% a year in dollars and 9.1% in their own currencies, against 14.7% for the US, so the stocks did most of the work and the dollar (+4.0% over the decade) little. The last year ran the other way: international stocks returned 32.2% in dollars but 21.9% at home, because the dollar fell 7.8%.
| Years to Dec 2025 | US, a year | International in dollars | International at home | Dollar |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +17.5% | +32.2% | +21.9% | −8% |
| 3 | +23.0% | +16.7% | +16.0% | −2% |
| 5 | +13.1% | +8.6% | +11.2% | +13% |
| 10 | +14.7% | +8.6% | +9.1% | +4% |
| 20 | +11.1% | +6.2% | +6.7% | +9% |
| 30 | +10.4% | +6.6% | +7.1% | +16% |
| 50 | +12.3% | +9.7% | +9.0% | −27% |
Annual total returns. “At home” is the same index in local currencies. Dollar is its total change over the window: a positive figure means the dollar strengthened and cut foreign returns for a US holder.
The ten-year gap, and what followed
The US annual return minus the international one over each trailing ten years: +6.1 pts in December 2025, against a widest of +12.3 pts in December 1998 and a deepest international lead of −7.3 pts in November 1987. The purple line is the same measure for SPY against EFA.
The next 5 years
After the widest fifth of US leads, the US was ahead over the next 5 years by a median +6.0 pts a year, against +5.9 pts for every month (108 of 313 months, December 1994 to December 2020). That is no real difference. The wide-lead months make up 3 non-overlapping 5-year periods.
The next 10 years
After the widest fifth of US leads, the US was ahead over the next 10 years by a median −2.5 pts a year, against +3.5 pts for every month (64 of 253 months, December 1994 to December 2015). International did better in 77% of those months against 34% of all months. The wide-lead months make up 1 non-overlapping 10-year period, too few to call a pattern.
Each month is ranked only against the ten-year gaps published by then, after ten years of them, so the test starts in December 1994. “Widest” is the top fifth of those readings (+7.2 pts a year or more by December 2025; today's gap ranks above 68% of them). The decade table below uses hindsight but never overlaps:
| December | US lead, past 10 years | US lead, next 10 years |
|---|---|---|
| 1985 | +0.2 pts | +0.9 pts |
| 1990 | −3.0 pts | +8.2 pts |
| 1995 | +0.9 pts | +1.7 pts |
| 2000 | +8.2 pts | −2.5 pts |
| 2005 | +1.7 pts | +3.7 pts |
| 2010 | −2.5 pts | +8.0 pts |
| 2015 | +3.7 pts | +6.1 pts |
Points a year, US annual total return minus international, in dollars. Rows five years apart, so neighbouring rows share half their window; every second row is fully independent.
Do country leaders stay leaders?
Each December since 1975, the developed markets in French's record (the US included) were ranked by their past twelve months in dollars, and the top and bottom quarter were followed for the next twelve. The leaders beat the average market by a median +1.6 pts and the laggards trailed it by −2.6 pts; the leaders beat the laggards in 32 of 50 years. Leadership tended to carry over, with many years the other way.
Twelve months to December 2025, in dollars
Data: SPY and EFA daily closes; dividends from Yahoo records; Ken French, Fama/French Research Factors (US market) and International Research Returns (the developed-market index, in dollars and local currency, and the country indexes), through December 2025. Download the series: us_vs_intl.json.
A year, SPY over EFA across ten years with dividends (15.4% against 9.2%). The ratio is −9.4% from its record of December 24, 2024; the lead changes hands at 25% below it, −11.7% from here.
Descriptions, not forecasts. Points are the US annual return minus the international one. A stretch ends only after a 25% move the other way, a rule fixed before the record was read.
How US vs International Stocks Works
- 1Divide US stocks by international stocksThe live line is SPY (the S&P 500) against EFA (developed markets outside North America), both with dividends reinvested. A rising line means US stocks are pulling ahead. The record before 2010 comes from Ken French’s value-weighted US market and his index of developed markets outside the US, monthly since 1975, both total return in dollars.
- 2Find each leadership stretch with one ruleA stretch of US leadership ends only when the ratio has fallen 25% from its high, and a stretch of international leadership ends only when it has risen 25% from its low. The threshold was fixed before the stretches were listed, so a dip of a few months never counts as a change of leader.
- 3Split the gap into stocks and the dollarFrench publishes the same international index in local currencies. Comparing the dollar and local versions shows how much of any gap came from the dollar strengthening or weakening, and how much came from the stocks themselves.
- 4Grade the widest US leads against what came nextEach month the trailing ten-year gap between US and international annual returns is ranked only against the gaps known by then. The page then reports the gap over the following five and ten years after the widest fifth of US leads, beside every month, and counts how many non-overlapping periods those results rest on.