Signals
What actually happened after the signal fired. Each study detects every historical occurrence of a well-known SPY technical trigger across 30+ years of daily data, then measures forward returns at six horizons (1 week to 12 months). No forecasts — just the documented base rates.
Recomputed after every market close · data through 2026-06-05 · 20-trading-day cooldown between occurrences
Golden Cross
SPY's 50-day simple moving average crosses above its 200-day simple moving average.
Monthly Faber Crossover
SPY month-end close crosses above its 10-month simple moving average.
50/200 MA Reclaim
SPY closes above both its 50- and 200-day moving averages after being below both.
RSI Oversold Thrust
SPY RSI(14) rallies from below 30 to above 60 within 20 trading days.
Methodology
Every signal is detected mechanically over SPY's full daily history (February 1993 to present) from our TradeStation-sourced close series. A 20-trading-day cooldown deduplicates clustered triggers so each occurrence is an independent episode. Forward returns are measured from the trigger day's close to the close 5, 21, 63, 126, 189, and 252 trading days later (≈1w, 1m, 3m, 6m, 9m, 12m); horizons that haven't elapsed yet for a recent trigger are shown as pending rather than estimated.
The usual caveats apply and we'd rather state them than bury them: these are small samples (7–24 occurrences), exclusively from a period in which US equities trended upward; positive base rates partly reflect that drift. Base rates are evidence about conditional tendencies, not predictions. Nothing here is investment advice.