Nasdaq TICK: Session Bias & Extreme Prints
The Nasdaq TICK — Nasdaq stocks upticking minus downticking — summarized per session since 2001: the day's bias, its ±1000 extreme prints, and an era-proof five-state read with forward QQQ base rates behind each state. Same contrarian shape as its NYSE cousin: washouts led, euphoria lagged.
Today's reading
As of the July 2, 2026 close, the Nasdaq TICK session read Bearish tilt: average bias -75 (z -0.6 vs the trailing year), with 0 surge prints (+1000) and 2 washout prints (−1000). Session extremes: +751 high, -1029 low. Since 2002, bearish tilt sessions preceded +1.38% average QQQ returns over the next 21 sessions vs +1.37% for all sessions.
Since 2002, bearish tilt sessions preceded +1.38% avg QQQ returns over the next 21 sessions (64% positive) vs +1.37% baseline — 1,339 cases. Context, not a forecast.
Session bias vs its own era
Each session's bias (blue) against its rolling one-year mean and ±1.5σ band (gray). The band IS the era adjustment — what counts as a washout or euphoric session moves with the market's structure, which is why raw TICK levels from different decades can't be compared directly.
Cumulative TICK — trend & divergence
The running sum of each session's bias, rebased to zero at the left edge of the window. The trend is the read: a rising line confirms the tape beneath a rally; price making new highs while cumulative TICK makes lower highs means fewer stocks are ticking along — the classic divergence warning. On the Max window the line partly reflects the Nasdaq TICK's own structural drift across two decades. Use the shorter windows for the trading read.
What followed each state — full history
Forward QQQ returns from every session in each z-score state since 2002. The familiar contrarian U: washout sessions preceded the best average returns (+2.0% over the next 21 sessions vs +1.4% baseline) and euphoric sessions the worst — panic prints on the Nasdaq tape marked exhaustion, not acceleration.
| State | % of days | Next 5 sessions | Next 10 sessions | Next 21 sessions | N |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washout | 8% | +0.51% · 59%↑ | +1.06% · 63%↑ | +2.02% · 65%↑ | 470 |
| Bearish tiltnow | 22% | +0.38% · 57%↑ | +0.73% · 61%↑ | +1.38% · 64%↑ | 1,339 |
| Balanced | 38% | +0.37% · 60%↑ | +0.69% · 62%↑ | +1.34% · 67%↑ | 2,311 |
| Bullish tilt | 25% | +0.21% · 58%↑ | +0.47% · 61%↑ | +1.35% · 63%↑ | 1,534 |
| Euphoric | 7% | +0.11% · 57%↑ | +0.35% · 58%↑ | +0.89% · 64%↑ | 405 |
| All sessions (baseline) | 100% | +0.33% · 59%↑ | +0.65% · 61%↑ | +1.37% · 65%↑ | 6,059 |
Forward returns on QQQ closes. States use the rolling one-year z-score of the session bias, so they are era-comparable. Overlapping windows — descriptive tendencies, not signals.
Extreme-print days — modern era (2010+)
Days when ±1000 prints actually hit the Nasdaq tape, 2010+. Fair warning: these buckets are small — ±1000 prints are much rarer on the Nasdaq TICK in the modern era (a few dozen cases each), so treat this table as color and lean on the z-state study above for statistics.
| State | % of days | Next 5 sessions | Next 10 sessions | Next 21 sessions | N |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washout day (5+ −1000 prints) | 1% | +0.97% · 63%↑ | +1.27% · 60%↑ | +1.82% · 59%↑ | 57 |
| Heavy washout (10+ −1000 prints) | 1% | +0.56% · 55%↑ | +0.57% · 55%↑ | +1.13% · 53%↑ | 20 |
| Surge day (5+ +1000 prints) | 1% | -0.26% · 54%↑ | +0.76% · 50%↑ | +1.16% · 52%↑ | 24 |
| No extreme prints | 74% | +0.34% · 60%↑ | +0.68% · 63%↑ | +1.40% · 67%↑ | 3,070 |
| All 2010+ sessions (baseline) | 100% | +0.37% · 60%↑ | +0.74% · 63%↑ | +1.57% · 67%↑ | 4,157 |
±1000 counts are 5-minute bars whose high/low reached the threshold. Restricted to 2010+ where the print-frequency regime is stable. Overlapping windows — base rates, not signals.
How Nasdaq TICK Works
- 1What the Nasdaq TICK isThe same construction as the NYSE TICK, on Nasdaq stocks: the number trading on an uptick minus a downtick, printed continuously through the session. Near zero is two-way trade; large positive or negative prints mean program-driven buying or selling sweeping the Nasdaq tape at once.
- 2Aggregate each sessionFrom 5-minute $TIKQ bars (2001–present) we compute each session's BIAS — the average TICK reading — and its EXTREME PRINTS: bars whose high reached +1000 (surge prints) or whose low reached −1000 (washout prints). ±1000 sits at roughly the 1% tail of the modern Nasdaq TICK distribution.
- 3Make it comparable across erasLike its NYSE cousin, the Nasdaq TICK's distribution drifts as market structure changes, so the state uses a rolling 252-session z-score of the bias — today versus the trailing year of itself, not versus 2003.
- 4Classify the state — and attach base ratesFive states by z: Washout (≤ −1.5), Bearish tilt, Balanced, Bullish tilt, Euphoric (≥ +1.5). For each, we show what QQQ actually did over the following 5, 10 and 21 sessions since 2002. The shape is contrarian: washouts led, euphoria lagged.