Decision desk · updated after every close
One market.
Four clocks.
As of the July 22, 2026 close, the tape is contested, swing conditions are constructive, the cycle is a broad advance, and long-term valuation risk is extreme. Four live reads connect today’s tape to the decade ahead — each with its own historical base rate and a condition that would change the read.
Built & maintained by Yuriy Matso · daily market data as of 2026-07-22 close · slower releases are labeled below.
10-session dimension scores · session control 56/100 · breadth 34/100 · volume confirmation 86/100 · pressure prints 48/100 · volatility 19/100 · overnight gap 43/100
The four clocks — choose your holding period
colors describe today's condition, not expected returnHealthy underneath, contested at the surface, expensive later. The broader market structure remains healthy, but short-term control is contested and long-run prices are stretched. Those readings can coexist because they answer different questions; none is a stand-alone buy or sell signal.
What moved today.
2026-07-22 closeThe most unusual changes across everything we track — threshold crossings, regime flips, unusually large moves, and fresh economic releases.
VIX/VIX3M is in backwardation — near-term fear exceeds longer-term fear, the stress signature.
St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index printed -0.70 (prior -0.88), released today.
National Financial Conditions Index printed -0.55 (prior -0.54), released today.
- Fin. Stress-0.7007-22
- Fin. Conditions-0.5507-22
- Recession Flag007-21
- Policy Uncertainty19807-21
- Fed Funds3.63%07-21
- Recession Flag07-22
- Policy Uncertainty07-22
- Fed Funds07-22
- CFNAI07-23
- Fed Balance Sheet07-23
- Jobless Claims07-23
The supporting read
Evidence by horizon.
Start with the summary and state-change threshold. Expand a card only when you want the full methodology and historical table.
Tape · today – 5 sessions
as of · daily, after each closeShort-term control is contested at 48/100; today’s tape character is middle-of-the-road tape.
Historical comparison
next 5 sessions · 1,375 casesNext state change
Improves to bulls leaning at 58. Weakens to bears leaning below 42.
View evidence & methodology
How to read it
The Tape Score reads who controls the last 10 sessions — 100 is full bull control, 0 full bear control. Today: 48/100 from session control 56, breadth 34, volume confirmation 86, pressure prints 48, volatility 19, overnight gap 43. Character check: middle-of-the-road tape (move size 0.81%, follow-through 45.6%).
Full historical table
Average SPY return after every prior day in this band, 2010+. The bands are contrarian at the extremes: bear-controlled tapes preceded the best forward returns.
Threshold details
Band edges are fixed at 70/58/42/30. Score 48 is 10 points below bulls leaning (58); a 7-point drop reaches bears leaning (below 42). Session control and breadth usually move it fastest.
Related tools
Swing · 1 week – 3 months
as of · daily, after each closeMulti-week conditions are constructive at 59/100; volatility & credit is weakest at 33/100.
Historical comparison
next 3 months · 846 casesNext state change
Improves to healthy at 75. Weakens to fragile below 55. Volatility & Credit is the main swing factor.
View evidence & methodology
How to read it
The Swing Score reads market condition over the multi-week window — 10 daily internals across five dimensions (trend, participation, momentum, leadership & divergence, volatility & credit), each classified on a documented threshold. Momentum now uses a 21-session change in % above 50-day breadth velocity in place of the faster McClellan Oscillator. Weakest dimension right now: volatility & credit at 33/100.
Full historical table
Average SPY return after every prior day in this band, 2019+. Contrarian: the stressed bands preceded the strongest forward returns.
Threshold details
Band edges are fixed at 75/55/35. Score 59 is 4 points above the Fragile line (55); volatility & credit (33/100) is the swing factor.
Related tools
Cycle · 3 – 12 months
as of · daily, after each closeThe medium-term structure is broad advance at 70/100; breadth velocity is weakest at 48/100.
Historical comparison
next 6 months · 979 casesNext state change
Weakens to constructive below 70. Breadth velocity is the main swing factor.
View evidence & methodology
How to read it
The Cycle Score reads the 3–12 month structure — 100 is a broadly owned advance, 0 a contraction. Today: 70/100 from trend 69, participation 56, breadth velocity 48, credit 70, growth cycle 100, recession risk 75. Thirteen inputs across six dimensions — including the OECD leading indicator, Baa credit premium and the new recession-risk block (yield curve, Sahm Rule, NFCI), joined by release date — each with documented fixed bounds, all itemized with their year-charts on the Cycle Tracker.
Full historical table
Average SPY return after every prior day in this band, 2010+. Contrarian at the extremes: contraction bands preceded the strongest forward returns.
Threshold details
Band edges are fixed at 70/58/42/30. Score 70 is in the top band; a 1-point drop reaches constructive (below 70). Breadth velocity and participation move first at this horizon.
Related tools
Valuation · 3 – 10 years
as of · market data daily; monthly gauges through 2026-07; quarterly through Q1 20268 of 10 gauges and 3 of 3 pillars are extreme; the current fingerprint most resembles 2000 peak.
Historical comparison
next 3 years · 52 casesNext state change
Each gauge leaves the extreme count only when its bubble percentile falls below 90; the scorecard lists the nearest holdouts.
View evidence & methodology
How to read it
8 of 10 valuation, allocation and leverage gauges sit past the 90th percentile of their own published history (a "bubble percentile" — oriented so higher always means more bubble-like). The fingerprint most resembles the 2000 peak. Same framework, replayed with no hindsight: 2000 = 10/10 · 2007 = 2/10 · 2021–22 = 5/10.
Full historical table
Average SPY return after months this stretched, 1997+. The next 12 months averaged +7.9% — valuation says nothing about the year ahead; it sets the odds for the decade.
Threshold details
Gauge by gauge: each drops out below the 90th bubble percentile of its own history (thresholds listed on the scorecard). The nearest holdouts and drivers are itemized on the Bubble Tracker.
Related tools
Why can the clocks disagree?
The clocks genuinely disagree, and that is information rather than error. The Tape Score is contested; swing conditions are constructive; valuation sits at historical extremes. These readings run on different horizons: short clocks describe current control and market structure, while valuation changes long-run expectations. The same valuation framework was already extreme through 1998–2000 even as the near-term tape continued to advance.
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Built to be checked
daily market data · 2026-07-22Primary data
Exchange data, Fed Z.1/H.8, BEA, FINRA, Cboe and Shiller inputs processed by our own pipeline.
Honest timestamps
Daily, monthly and quarterly inputs keep their own release dates; slower data is never presented as live.
Published base rates
Every state is compared with all days. Color describes the current state, not expected return or a trade recommendation.
Maintained and reviewed by Yuriy Matso · methodology · how it works · how we use AI · educational, not financial advice.