What is the U.S. stock market doing right now, across time horizons?

As of the October 7, 2026 close, the tape is contested, swing conditions are fragile, the cycle is constructive, and long-term valuation risk is extreme. Near-term internals and long-run valuation are both demanding attention, but on different clocks. The state-vs-baseline tables below show how each condition behaved historically.

What are the four clocks?

Four live reads of the same market on different holding periods: Tape (today to 5 sessions — who controls the last 10 sessions), Swing (1 week to 3 months — daily-internals condition), Cycle (3 to 12 months — how broadly the average stock participates), and Valuation (3 to 10 years — how stretched prices are vs history). Each ships its historical base rate and the condition that would change the read.

How often is the Market Monitor updated?

The market readings and Decision Desk clocks update every U.S. trading day after the close. Monthly and quarterly inputs keep their own release dates and are labeled with what they cover.

Market monitor · updated after every close

The market,
measured.

As of the October 7, 2026 close, the tape is contested, swing conditions are fragile, the cycle is constructive, and long-term valuation risk is extreme. The Decision Desk connects today’s tape to the decade ahead—without averaging different holding periods into one misleading answer.

See what changed today ↓Find unusual volume

Built & maintained by Yuriy Matso · daily market data as of 2026-10-07 close · slower releases are labeled below.

Tape score2026-10-07 · close

Contested

10-session dimension scores · session control 44/100 · breadth 32/100 · volume confirmation 82/100 · pressure prints 22/100 · volatility 65/100 · overnight gap 36/100

Tape characterMiddle-of-the-road tape

Full breakdown: Tape Tracker

Decision Desk — the four market clocks

colors describe today's condition, not expected return

Tapetoday – 5 sessions

47/100

Contested

mixed

Swing1 week – 3 months

Valuation3 – 10 years

8/10

Bubble territory

long-run risk

Desk interpretation

Near-term internals and long-run valuation are both demanding attention, but on different clocks. The state-vs-baseline tables below show how each condition behaved historically.

Choose the clock closest to your holding period. Tape, Swing, Cycle and Valuation answer different questions, so disagreement is information—not an error to smooth away.

What moved today.

2026-10-07 close

The most unusual changes across everything we track — threshold crossings, regime flips, unusually large moves, and fresh economic releases.

Lead move · Economy — Financial Conditions

Fin. Stress

-0.47from -0.81

St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index printed -0.47 (prior -0.81), released today.

Open the live tool

02Economy — CommoditiesDistillate Exports1.76from 1.53 03Market Internals% above 200-day37.8%-1.9pp 04Risk & VolatilityVIX term structure0.85from 0.85 05SectorsSector tapeXLV +1.0%XLI -2.2%06MacroMacro: Reflation / Hot Growthcooling

Released — last 3 days

Due — next 7 days

Start with your question

Choose what you need to know.

The full catalog still exists. These are the shortest paths through it for the jobs visitors return to do.

01What is happening now?

Monitor the market

Follow price, participation and leadership without opening a dozen disconnected screens.

Open the live chart

02Where is activity concentrating?

Find opportunities

Move from unusual attention to the stocks, options and events attracting it.

Open unusual volume

03Is the market fragile or expensive?

Assess risk

Separate short-term stress from long-run valuation instead of blending them into one alarm.

Start with margin debt

Looking for a specialized breadth, sentiment, global, crypto, signal, or economic study?Search all tools →

Built to be checked

daily market data · 2026-10-07

Primary data

Exchange data, Fed Z.1/H.8, BEA, FINRA, Cboe and Shiller inputs processed by our own pipeline.

Honest timestamps

Daily, monthly and quarterly inputs keep their own release dates; slower data is never presented as live.

Published base rates

Every state is compared with all days. Color describes the current state, not expected return or a trade recommendation.

Maintained and reviewed by Yuriy Matso · methodology · how it works · how we use AI · educational, not financial advice.

The market,measured.