QQQ put ratio: paid for a dip by November, sold the crash
Logged Oct 20, 2026 at 14:20 ET with QQQ at $719.19. The position it leaves is long 700 Nov 20 685 puts, short 1,400 Nov 20 650 puts, a bet on a modest QQQ pullback by November, not a crash: the prints, what most likely happened, scenarios to expiry and the payoff follow.
Now long 700 Nov 20 685 puts, short 1,400 Nov 20 650 puts: a bet on a modest QQQ pullback by November, not a crash.
- Money behind it
- $826Kshort QQQ, the position's share-equivalent
- Potential profit
- +$2.40Mat the Nov 20 expiry; −$50K if QQQ ends flat
- Max risk
- −$43.10Mif QQQ went to zero; −$308K if QQQ falls 15% by Nov 20
- Capital behind it
- $4.78M$4.78M standard margin · $106K portfolio margin
- Return, 31 days
- up to 50%50% max, -1% if flat, on standard margin
- Breakevens
- $615.71 / $684.29−14.4% / −4.9% from $719.19
- The trade
- $977Kpremium across 2,100 contracts; −$50K net cash paid
Side read from the fill, not reported by the tape. Computed from the logged prints. Not advice.
The trade
1×2 put ratio spread: buy the Nov 20 685 put, sell twice as many Nov 20 650 puts, one order on PHLX.
| Time (ET) | Option | Qty | Price | Exchange | Market | Delta | IV | QQQ | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:20:29 | Nov 20 685 put | 700 | 7.33 | PHLX | 7.30 × 7.34 | −0.23 | 25.3% | 719.19 | Bought to open |
| 14:20:29 | Nov 20 650 put | 1,400 | 3.31 | PHLX | 3.29 × 3.33 | −0.11 | 29.8% | 719.19 | Sold to open |
| Total | Nov 20 685 put | 700 | 7.33 | PHLX | 7.30 × 7.34 | -0.23 | 25.3% | $513K premium | |
| Total | Nov 20 650 put | 1,400 | 3.31 | PHLX | 3.29 × 3.33 | -0.11 | 29.8% | $463K premium | |
Every print of the order as it crossed the tape, in the time-and-sales layout. Prices in green printed at the ask, in red at the bid. Delta and implied volatility are solved from each print's own price against QQQ at $719.19 (Black-Scholes, fed funds, no dividend), so they differ slightly from a broker's. Totals weight price and quote by size. "Read" is our reading of the side, explained next.
What most likely happened
At 14:20 ET, 700 Nov 20 685 puts and 1,400 Nov 20 650 puts traded together in one order on PHLX, in a 1:2 ratio: one trader, one decision.
Leaning read. A trader bought a put below the market and paid for most of it by selling twice as many puts further down: a ratio spread. It costs little, earns nothing if QQQ holds up, and pays most if QQQ slips to the lower strike by the November expiry. Below that, the extra short puts start losing, so the trader has in effect agreed to own QQQ if it falls hard. That is a view on a modest pullback, not a crash: protection for a dip, financed by selling the crash tail. Few hedgers would choose to give up their protection exactly where a crash begins, which is why this reads as a view more than as portfolio insurance.
The evidence. The higher put printed near its ask and the lower put at its midpoint. The order filled 42% of the way from the price at which the read's initiator crosses the whole quote (−$53K) to the price at which they are paid it (−$45K): below the midpoint, which supports the read.
The other read. The reverse: someone sold the higher put and bought twice as many lower puts, a backspread that pays in a crash. The higher put printing near its ask points the other way.
Scenarios to the Nov 20 expiry
Where QQQ would end if it moved evenly to each level by Nov 20, 2026, and what the position would make or lose there. The solid line is the breakeven.
QQQ at expiry: the price and what the position makes or loses
Closes through Oct 20 · scenarios to Nov 20QQQ at expiry: the price and what the position makes or loses
Closes through Oct 20 · scenarios to Nov 20| QQQ by Nov 20 | QQQ | Position at expiry |
|---|---|---|
| −15% | $611.31 | −$308K |
| −10% | $647.27 | +$2.21M |
| −5% | $683.23 | +$74K |
| flat | $719.19 | −$50K |
| +5% | $755.15 | −$50K |
| +10% | $791.11 | −$50K |
| +15% | $827.07 | −$50K |
What the position makes or loses
Breakeven at the Nov 20 expiry: QQQ at $615.71 (−14.4% from entry) or $684.29 (−4.9% from entry). The loss grows as QQQ falls. The most it can make at expiry is $2.40M. Behaves like short 1,148 QQQ shares ($826K).
Profit or loss of the open position against what it was opened for, across QQQ prices from $572.61 to $827.07. The second axis is the move from the trade's price. Black-Scholes on each leg's implied volatility at the fed funds rate.
The money behind it
Estimates under Cboe's published rules. A short option covered by a long one is charged the spread's width (nothing for a debit spread); an uncovered one is charged its value plus 15% of QQQ's price, less any out-of-the-money amount, with a floor. Portfolio margin is the worst loss of the whole position within its price range, which ignores moves beyond it: a tail the standard figure prices and portfolio margin does not. Brokers can require more, and an account holding offsetting positions less.
Since the trade
First mark on Oct 20, 2026: −$2K. The chart starts with the second session.
Source
Options time and sales from a U.S. brokerage's trading platform, entered by hand. Marks from daily option bars; the closing price from our price files. Page data as of Oct 20, 2026. All bets →
Now long 700 Nov 20 685 puts, short 1,400 Nov 20 650 puts: a bet on a modest QQQ pullback by November, not a crash.
- Money behind it
- $826Kshort QQQ, the position's share-equivalent
- Potential profit
- +$2.40Mat the Nov 20 expiry; −$50K if QQQ ends flat
- Max risk
- −$43.10Mif QQQ went to zero; −$308K if QQQ falls 15% by Nov 20
- Capital behind it
- $4.78M$4.78M standard margin · $106K portfolio margin
- Return, 31 days
- up to 50%50% max, -1% if flat, on standard margin
- Breakevens
- $615.71 / $684.29−14.4% / −4.9% from $719.19
- The trade
- $977Kpremium across 2,100 contracts; −$50K net cash paid
Side read from the fill, not reported by the tape. Computed from the logged prints. Not advice.