InternalsUpdated daily after close · as of 2026-06-25
Coppock Curve: Live Reading & Buy Signals
The Coppock Curve is Edwin Coppock's long-term, buy-only momentum signal: a 10-month weighted average of the S&P 500's 14- and 11-month rate of change. The classic buy signal fires when the curve turns up from below zero — momentum re-accelerating after a real decline. Built for investors, not traders. Live monthly reading and every signal since 1993.
Today's reading
As of June 25, 2026, the Coppock Curve reads 41.2 and the curve is rising and above zero (no buy setup — Coppock buys only fire from below zero). Coppock is a long-term, buy-only signal: it fires when the curve turns up from below zero. The last buy signal fired in March 2023. There have been 6 buy signals since 1993; the S&P 500 was higher 12 months later after five of the six.
Source
SPY monthly closes from our price database (1993–present), proxy for the S&P 500
Methodology
Coppock = 10-month WMA of (14-month ROC + 11-month ROC); buy signal = curve turns up from below zero
Updates
Daily after US market close (~1pm PT); the monthly value firms as each month closesLast: 2026-06-25
Coppock CurveSPY · 2026-06-25 · monthly
RISING
41.2
Rising · above zero (Coppock buys fire only from below zero)
Buy signals since 1993
6
Last signal
Mar 2023
Avg SPY +12m
+12.0%
A buy fires when the curve turns up from below zero. After the 6 signals since 1993, the S&P 500 was higher 12 months later 5 of 6 times. Coppock gives no sell signal.
01
The Coppock Curve over time
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Coppock Curve (monthly) zero line buy signal S&P 500 (right, log)
02
Every buy signal since 1993 — and what the S&P 500 did next
| Signal month | Coppock | SPY +6m | SPY +12m |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 2001 | -39.5 | -13.4% | -22.8% |
| Nov 2002 | -38.2 | +3.2% | +13.3% |
| Apr 2003 | -42.1 | +14.6% | +20.7% |
| May 2009 | -74.1 | +18.8% | +18.2% |
| May 2016 | -2.1 | +5.0% | +15.1% |
| Mar 2023 | -22.5 | +4.4% | +27.8% |
| Average | — | +5.4% | +12.0% |
Computed on SPY monthly closes (proxy for the S&P 500) since 1993. Forward returns use the index 6 and 12 months after the signal month. Six signals is a small sample — a strong record, not a guarantee. Coppock is a buy-only signal.
How Coppock Curve Works
- 1Measure long-horizon momentumEach month we take the S&P 500's 14-month and 11-month rate of change — how far the index has moved over roughly the past year and a bit. Adding the two captures momentum over a deliberately long horizon, which is what makes the Coppock Curve a cycle gauge rather than a noise machine.
- 2Smooth with a 10-month weighted averageWe take a 10-month weighted moving average of that combined momentum, with the most recent months weighted most heavily. The result is a single slow-moving line that rises and falls with the market's multi-year rhythm.
- 3Watch the turn from below zeroEdwin Coppock designed this as a buy-only signal: a buy triggers when the curve bottoms below the zero line and then turns up. The below-zero condition means the move comes after real weakness; the upturn marks momentum re-accelerating. There is no built-in sell signal — Coppock intended it only to time long-side entries.
- 4Read the live statusWe label the current reading Rising or Falling, note whether it is above or below zero, and flag a Buy signal in the month one fires. The table below lists every buy signal since 1993 and what the S&P 500 did over the following 6 and 12 months.
Who Uses Coppock Curve
Long-term Investors
The Coppock Curve is built for exactly this audience — a once-every-few-years signal to add to equities after a washout, not a trading tool. A turn up from below zero has historically marked attractive long-side entry points.
Tactical Allocators
Use the curve's position and direction as a regime overlay: below zero and falling is a defensive backdrop; turning up from below zero is the historical green light to lean back into risk.
Retirement / 401(k) Investors
Because it is monthly and rare, the Coppock signal suits slow, deliberate allocation decisions far better than daily indicators — it is one of the few signals designed to be acted on a handful of times per decade.
Market Historians
The curve called the 2009 and 2023 lows on our data. Having the live monthly value plus the dated history of every signal makes it easy to check "has the Coppock Curve given a buy signal?" against the record.
Pro Tips
01
It is a buy signal only
Coppock deliberately built no sell signal — he found the indicator unreliable for exits. Use it to time entries after weakness; rely on other tools for risk management and trims.
02
The below-zero condition matters
An upturn while the curve is already above zero is not a classic Coppock buy. The signal's edge comes specifically from turning up out of negative territory — momentum re-accelerating after a real decline.
03
It can whipsaw in long bears
In a drawn-out decline the curve can turn up, fail, and turn down again — the 2001–2003 bear produced several signals before the durable low. Treat clustered signals in an ongoing downtrend with more caution than a single clean turn.
04
It is slow by design
The 14- and 11-month lookbacks mean the curve lags turning points by months. That is the trade-off for filtering noise: you give up the exact bottom to avoid being whipsawed by every correction.
Common Issues & Solutions
Why does it use 14 and 11 months?▾
Those are Edwin Coppock's original parameters, reportedly chosen because he asked an Episcopal church how long people grieve a loss — roughly 11 to 14 months — reasoning that markets "mourn" a decline for a similar span. The 10-month weighted average is also his. We keep the originals.
Is this computed on the S&P 500 or SPY?▾
We compute it on SPY monthly closes back to 1993 as a clean, freely-downloadable proxy for the S&P 500. The classic Coppock uses a monthly index level; results are effectively identical for signal timing.
Why no sell signal?▾
Coppock found the upside turns reliable and the downside turns not, so he published it as a buy-only tool. A curve rolling over from a high is informational — momentum fading — but it is not a Coppock sell signal, and we do not present it as one.
The current month isn't over yet — does that matter?▾
The latest point uses the most recent available close, so an in-progress month can shift slightly until it closes. We label the reading Rising or Falling rather than calling a signal until the monthly turn is confirmed.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Coppock Curve?▾
A long-term momentum indicator devised by Edwin Coppock in 1962. It is a 10-month weighted moving average of the sum of the S&P 500's 14-month and 11-month rate of change. Its one signal — a buy — fires when the curve turns up from below the zero line, marking momentum re-accelerating after a real decline.
Has the Coppock Curve given a buy signal?▾
The live status at the top of this page answers that each month. It reads Rising or Falling, notes whether the curve is above or below zero, and flags Buy signal in the month one triggers. The page also dates the most recent signal.
How accurate is the Coppock Curve?▾
On our SPY data there have been six buy signals since 1993 (Dec 2001, Nov 2002, Apr 2003, May 2009, May 2016, Mar 2023). The S&P 500 was higher 12 months later after five of the six, averaging roughly +12%. The 2009 and 2023 signals landed near major lows. Six instances is a small sample — a strong record, not a guarantee.
Does the Coppock Curve give sell signals?▾
No. Edwin Coppock designed it as a buy-only indicator because he found the downside turns unreliable. A curve rolling over tells you momentum is fading, but it is not a Coppock sell signal.
How is it calculated and how often is it updated?▾
It is a 10-month weighted moving average of (14-month ROC + 11-month ROC) of SPY monthly closes — Coppock's original parameters. We update the reading after every US market close; the monthly value firms up as each month closes.
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Last updated: 2026-06-25