Risk39 signs · bear markets since 1973 · as of October 15, 2026
Bear Market Warning Signs: Which Are On Today?
39 classic warnings, from the yield curve and credit spreads to margin debt, small caps and jobless claims, each a fixed rule checked every session. Today’s set sits beside the six months before every bear market since 1973, including 2007, 2020 and 2022, and every sign is graded on how often it was followed by a bear market compared with an ordinary day.
Warning signs onOctober 15, 2026
12
of 39
More than on 63% of sessions since 1990.
Rates and the Fed5/7
Credit and financial conditions0/6
Under the surface2/5
Leverage and sentiment2/6
Valuation2/2
The economy1/13
Share of each bear market’s signs on today
55%
2000 · 11/20
29%
2007 · 6/21
29%
2020 · 7/24
53%
2022 · 8/15
A count of fixed rules, never a score. Each sign’s rule and record are below.
Latest read
On October 15, 2026, 12 of 39 bear market warning signs were on, a larger share than on 63% of sessions since 1990. By group, valuation has 2 of 2 on, rates and the Fed has 5 of 7 on, under the surface has 2 of 5 on, while credit and financial conditions shows 0 of 6. Of the 20 signs on in the six months before the March 2000 peak, 11 are on today, the closest match among recent bear markets. Of the five signs that were on before all of 2007, 2020 and 2022, three are on today; all five lined up together 6 times since 2003, and 1 of the 5 completed cases led to a 20% fall within a year.
Sources, methodology & freshnessFRED, BLS, OECD, FINRA, Shiller and Fed survey data by release date; S&P 500, Russell 2000, Dow Transports, VIX and dollar index closes from Yahoo Finance; ICE BofA high-yield spread; Ken French industry portfolios; SPY, RSP and sector fund closes · Daily after the US closeData as of 2026-10-15 · Open ↓Close ↑
Source
FRED, BLS, OECD, FINRA, Shiller and Fed survey data by release date; S&P 500, Russell 2000, Dow Transports, VIX and dollar index closes from Yahoo Finance; ICE BofA high-yield spread; Ken French industry portfolios; SPY, RSP and sector fund closes
Methodology
39 fixed-rule signs; a bear market is an S&P 500 record close followed by a 20% fall; outcome is an S&P 500 close 20% below the day's close within 252 sessions
Updates
Daily after the US closeData as of 2026-10-15
Maintained & reviewed by Yuriy Matso — methodology shown on the page.
01
Today against every bear market since 1973
Each column shows which signs were on at any point in the six months before a bear market’s peak; the last column is today. Every bear market came with a different set. Today shares the most with 2000: 11 of its 20 signs are on.
| Sign | 1973 | 1980 | 1987 | 2000 | 2007 | 2020 | 2022 | Today |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rates and the Fed | ||||||||
| Yield curve inverted in the past year | ||||||||
| Curve back above zero after inverting | ||||||||
| Fed has hiked a point in two years | ||||||||
| Fed cutting from its high | ||||||||
| 10-year yield up a point in a year | ||||||||
| Market pricing rate hikes | ||||||||
| Real yields jumping | ||||||||
| Credit and financial conditions | ||||||||
| Junk-bond spreads widening | ||||||||
| Corporate spreads widening | ||||||||
| Financial conditions tightening | ||||||||
| Financial stress above normal | ||||||||
| Banks tightening loan standards | ||||||||
| Financials lagging | ||||||||
| Under the surface | ||||||||
| Small caps lagging at a high | ||||||||
| Equal weight lagging at a high | ||||||||
| Transports not confirming | ||||||||
| Defensives leading at a high | ||||||||
| Weak industry breadth at a high | ||||||||
| Leverage and sentiment | ||||||||
| VIX complacency in the past year | ||||||||
| VIX rising at a high | ||||||||
| Margin debt surging | ||||||||
| Margin debt rolling over | ||||||||
| Consumer sentiment slumping | ||||||||
| Households heavy in stocks | ||||||||
| Valuation | ||||||||
| CAPE above 30 | ||||||||
| Market cap to GDP at an extreme | ||||||||
| The economy | ||||||||
| Leading indicator falling | ||||||||
| Jobless claims rising | ||||||||
| Unemployment rising | ||||||||
| Temp-help jobs shrinking | ||||||||
| Hiring narrowing | ||||||||
| Building permits falling | ||||||||
| Capital-goods orders falling | ||||||||
| Industrial production falling | ||||||||
| Corporate profits falling | ||||||||
| Copper falling | ||||||||
| Core inflation at 4%+ | ||||||||
| Oil price spike | ||||||||
| Dollar surging | ||||||||
| Signs on, of those with data | 4/15 | 12/16 | 8/19 | 20/37 | 21/39 | 24/39 | 15/39 | 12/39 |
| Fall from peak to low | −48% | −27% | −34% | −49% | −57% | −34% | −25% | −1.0% |
02
How much today looks like each bear market’s run-up
The share of the signs on before each peak that are on today, among those with data today. This measures resemblance, not risk: the same share can come from different signs, and the next section shows that matching a past setup has often come to nothing.
March 2000 peak · S&P 500 then fell 49%11 of 20
Yield curve inverted in the past yearCurve back above zero after invertingFed has hiked a point in two yearsFed cutting from its high10-year yield up a point in a yearMarket pricing rate hikesFinancial conditions tighteningFinancial stress above normalBanks tightening loan standardsFinancials laggingSmall caps lagging at a highTransports not confirmingWeak industry breadth at a highMargin debt surgingHouseholds heavy in stocksCAPE above 30Market cap to GDP at an extremeCapital-goods orders fallingOil price spikeDollar surging
October 2007 peak · S&P 500 then fell 57%6 of 21
Yield curve inverted in the past yearCurve back above zero after invertingFed has hiked a point in two yearsFed cutting from its highJunk-bond spreads wideningCorporate spreads wideningFinancial conditions tighteningFinancial stress above normalFinancials laggingSmall caps lagging at a highEqual weight lagging at a highTransports not confirmingDefensives leading at a highVIX complacency in the past yearMargin debt surgingMargin debt rolling overMarket cap to GDP at an extremeTemp-help jobs shrinkingBuilding permits fallingCorporate profits fallingCopper falling
February 2020 peak · S&P 500 then fell 34%7 of 24
Yield curve inverted in the past yearCurve back above zero after invertingFed has hiked a point in two yearsFed cutting from its highJunk-bond spreads wideningFinancial stress above normalFinancials laggingSmall caps lagging at a highEqual weight lagging at a highTransports not confirmingDefensives leading at a highVIX complacency in the past yearVIX rising at a highMargin debt rolling overHouseholds heavy in stocksCAPE above 30Market cap to GDP at an extremeLeading indicator fallingJobless claims risingTemp-help jobs shrinkingCapital-goods orders fallingIndustrial production fallingCorporate profits fallingCopper falling
January 2022 peak · S&P 500 then fell 25%8 of 15
Market pricing rate hikesFinancials laggingSmall caps lagging at a highEqual weight lagging at a highTransports not confirmingWeak industry breadth at a highVIX rising at a highMargin debt surgingConsumer sentiment slumpingHouseholds heavy in stocksCAPE above 30Market cap to GDP at an extremeLeading indicator fallingCore inflation at 4%+Oil price spike
03
The five signs on before 2007, 2020 and 2022
Only five signs were on before all three of the last bear markets: financials lagging, small caps lagging at a high, equal weight lagging at a high, transports not confirming, market cap to GDP at an extreme. 3 are on today. They were picked by those three peaks, so the test is everything else. Since 2003 all five have lined up 6 separate times, and 1 of the 5 completed cases led to a 20% fall within a year. With 4 or more on, since 1992, 4 of 10 completed cases saw a fall of 15% or more.
All 5 on · deepest S&P 500 fall over the next year
Sep ’07
−23.9%
Aug ’20
−1.8%
May ’23
−2.0%
Jun ’24
−8.3%
Aug ’25
0.0%
Sep ’26
open
4 or more of 5 on · deepest S&P 500 fall over the next year
Nov ’99
−6.7%
Aug ’07
−17.9%
Dec ’15
−12.6%
Jun ’17
−1.0%
Mar ’19
−19.3%
Jul ’20
−0.3%
Sep ’21
−19.2%
Apr ’23
−2.6%
Jun ’24
−5.8%
Feb ’25
−16.9%
Aug ’26
open
04
Every sign since 1970
When each sign was on, against the bear markets. A useful warning is on before the yellow bands and off in between; most are on for long stretches either way.
Rates and the Fed
●Yield curve inverted in the past year
●Curve back above zero after inverting
Fed has hiked a point in two years
Fed cutting from its high
●10-year yield up a point in a year
●Market pricing rate hikes
●Real yields jumping
Credit and financial conditions
Junk-bond spreads widening
Corporate spreads widening
Financial conditions tightening
Financial stress above normal
Banks tightening loan standards
Financials lagging
Under the surface
●Small caps lagging at a high
Equal weight lagging at a high
●Transports not confirming
Defensives leading at a high
Weak industry breadth at a high
Leverage and sentiment
VIX complacency in the past year
VIX rising at a high
●Margin debt surging
Margin debt rolling over
Consumer sentiment slumping
●Households heavy in stocks
Valuation
●CAPE above 30
●Market cap to GDP at an extreme
The economy
Leading indicator falling
Jobless claims rising
Unemployment rising
Temp-help jobs shrinking
Hiring narrowing
Building permits falling
Capital-goods orders falling
Industrial production falling
Corporate profits falling
Copper falling
Core inflation at 4%+
●Oil price spike
Dollar surging
19801990200020102020
05
Share of signs on, since 1990
Range:
06
Each sign’s record
How often a day with the sign on was followed by an S&P 500 close 20% lower within a year (red bar), against every day in the same record (grey tick): 12.7% for all days since 1971 and 7.6% for days within 5% of a high. Signs gated on the S&P 500 near its high are compared with near-high days. Days overlap, so these are frequencies, not independent trials.
| Sign and rule | Today | 20% fall within a year: when on vs baseline | Days on | Bears preceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rates and the Fed | ||||
Yield curve inverted in the past year The 10-year Treasury yield fell below the 3-month bill yield on at least one day in the past 252 sessions. Since 1982. | −0.03 pt on since Oct ’22 | 29% vs 13% | 29% | 3/5 |
Curve back above zero after inverting The 10-year minus 3-month spread is at or above zero after an inversion in the past 252 sessions. Since 1982. | +0.91 pt on since Oct ’25 | 34% vs 13% | 18% | 3/5 |
Fed has hiked a point in two years The fed funds rate is at least 1 point above its low of the past 504 sessions. Since 1971. | +0.26 pt last on Nov ’24 | 13% vs 13% | 53% | 6/7 |
Fed cutting from its high The fed funds rate is at least 0.5 point below its high of the past 252 sessions. Since 1970. | +0.24 pt last on Sep ’26 | 16% vs 13% | 62% | 6/7 |
10-year yield up a point in a year The 10-year Treasury yield is at least 1 point higher than 252 sessions earlier. Since 1970. | +1.18 pt on since Sep ’26 | 7% vs 13% | 15% | 3/7 |
Market pricing rate hikes The 2-year Treasury yield is at least 0.5 point above the fed funds rate. Since 1976. | +0.91 pt on since Jun ’26 | 9% vs 11% | 44% | 4/6 |
Real yields jumping The 10-year TIPS yield is at least 0.75 point higher than 126 sessions earlier. Since 2003. | +0.95 pt on since Sep ’26 | 13% vs 12% | 8% | 0/3 |
| Credit and financial conditions | ||||
Junk-bond spreads widening The ICE BofA high-yield spread is at least 1 point above its low of the past 252 sessions. Since 1997. | +0.65 pt last on May ’25 | 28% vs 17% | 39% | 2/4 |
Corporate spreads widening Moody's Baa spread over the 10-year is at least 0.5 point above its low of the past 12 months. Since 1970. | 0.00 pt last on Nov ’22 | 19% vs 13% | 28% | 2/7 |
Financial conditions tightening The Chicago Fed's National Financial Conditions Index is at least 0.25 above its low of the past 52 weeks. Since 1993. | 0.07 last on Jan ’23 | 24% vs 15% | 23% | 2/4 |
Financial stress above normal The St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index is above zero, its long-run average. Since 1994. | −0.72 last on Apr ’25 | 31% vs 15% | 35% | 3/4 |
Banks tightening loan standards At least 10% more banks are tightening business-loan standards than easing them (Fed senior loan officer survey). Since 1993. | 0.0% last on Aug ’25 | 37% vs 15% | 28% | 1/4 |
Financials lagging The financial-sector fund XLF trails SPY by at least 5 points over 126 sessions. Since 1999. | −3.77 pt last on Oct ’26 | 26% vs 18% | 25% | 4/4 |
| Under the surface | ||||
Small caps lagging at a high The Russell 2000 trails the S&P 500 by at least 5 points over 126 sessions, with the S&P 500 within 5% of its one-year high. Since 1988. | −8.23 pt on since Oct ’26 | 13% vs 7% | 16% | 4/4 |
Equal weight lagging at a high The equal-weight S&P 500 fund RSP trails SPY by at least 3 points over 126 sessions, with the S&P 500 within 5% of its one-year high. Since 2003. | −2.84 pt last on Oct ’26 | 20% vs 9% | 10% | 3/3 |
Transports not confirming The Dow Jones Transportation Average is at least 10% below its one-year high while the S&P 500 is within 3% of its own. Since 1992. | −16.0% on since Sep ’26 | 17% vs 7% | 7% | 4/4 |
Defensives leading at a high Consumer staples (XLP) and utilities (XLU) beat SPY by at least 3 points over 63 sessions, with the S&P 500 within 5% of its one-year high. Since 1999. | −6.86 pt last on Apr ’26 | 15% vs 11% | 9% | 2/4 |
Weak industry breadth at a high Fewer than 60% of 49 US industries trade above their 200-day average while the S&P 500 is within 3% of its one-year high (Ken French data, published a month or two late). Since 1970. | 77.6% last on Apr ’26 | 8% vs 7% | 3% | 3/7 |
| Leverage and sentiment | ||||
VIX complacency in the past year The VIX closed below 12 at least once in the past 252 sessions. Since 1990. | 13.47 last on Jun ’25 | 9% vs 14% | 46% | 2/4 |
VIX rising at a high The VIX is at least 50% above its low of the past 63 sessions while the S&P 500 is within 3% of its one-year high. Since 1990. | +15.8% last on Mar ’26 | 11% vs 7% | 1% | 2/4 |
Margin debt surging FINRA margin debt is at least 30% higher than a year earlier. Since 1998. | +37.2% on since Sep ’25 | 27% vs 18% | 16% | 3/4 |
Margin debt rolling over FINRA margin debt is at least 5% below its high of the past 12 months. Since 1998. | −3.2% last on Sep ’26 | 36% vs 17% | 42% | 2/4 |
Consumer sentiment slumping The University of Michigan sentiment index is at least 15 points below its high of the past 12 months. Since 1970. | −4.90 last on Jun ’26 | 31% vs 13% | 19% | 2/7 |
Households heavy in stocks Households' allocation to stocks ranks in the top tenth of every earlier quarter. Since 1998. | record on since Jun ’23 | 23% vs 18% | 33% | 3/4 |
| Valuation | ||||
CAPE above 30 Robert Shiller's cyclically adjusted P/E is at least 30. Since 1970. | 40.71 on since Dec ’23 | 23% vs 13% | 18% | 3/7 |
Market cap to GDP at an extreme US stock market value over GDP ranks in the top tenth of every earlier quarter. Since 1970. | record on since Jun ’13 | 18% vs 13% | 43% | 4/7 |
| The economy | ||||
Leading indicator falling The OECD composite leading indicator for the US is lower than six months earlier. Since 1993. | 0.52 last on Oct ’25 | 26% vs 15% | 47% | 2/4 |
Jobless claims rising The four-week average of initial jobless claims is at least 15% above its low of the past 52 weeks. Since 1970. | +0.1% last on Jul ’25 | 24% vs 13% | 23% | 3/7 |
Unemployment rising The unemployment rate is at least 0.3 point above its low of the past 12 months. Since 1970. | +0.10 pt last on Apr ’26 | 18% vs 13% | 32% | 1/7 |
Temp-help jobs shrinking Temporary-help employment is lower than a year earlier. Since 1991. | +0.6% last on Jul ’26 | 32% vs 14% | 33% | 2/4 |
Hiring narrowing Fewer than half of private industries added jobs over three months (BLS diffusion index). Since 1991. | 57.00 last on Apr ’26 | 28% vs 14% | 22% | 0/4 |
Building permits falling Housing permits are at least 10% lower than a year earlier. Since 1970. | +4.2% last on Jul ’24 | 24% vs 13% | 23% | 3/7 |
Capital-goods orders falling Core capital-goods orders are lower than a year earlier. Since 1993. | +14.1% last on Dec ’24 | 24% vs 15% | 34% | 2/4 |
Industrial production falling Industrial production is lower than a year earlier. Since 1970. | +1.4% last on Feb ’25 | 19% vs 13% | 28% | 2/7 |
Corporate profits falling Corporate profits are lower than a year earlier. Since 1970. | +26.6% last on Dec ’25 | 22% vs 13% | 31% | 4/7 |
Copper falling The copper price is lower than a year earlier. Since 1993. | +38.6% last on Jul ’25 | 16% vs 15% | 47% | 2/4 |
Core inflation at 4%+ Core CPI inflation over the past year is at least 4%. Since 1970. | +2.8% last on Jan ’24 | 7% vs 13% | 38% | 3/7 |
Oil price spike WTI crude is at least 50% higher than 252 sessions earlier. Since 1986. | +61.7% on since Sep ’26 | 34% vs 14% | 12% | 3/5 |
Dollar surging The US dollar index is at least 8% higher than 252 sessions earlier. Since 1971. | +3.0% last on Mar ’23 | 11% vs 13% | 19% | 1/7 |
07
Limits of this record
- 7 bear markets is a small sample, and several signs cover only the last three or four. A sign that is on a third of the time will be on before many of them by chance.
- The signs are the classic warnings with round-number thresholds, chosen before the results were examined. Other thresholds would give other counts; none was tuned here.
- Economic data uses today’s revised values on the dates they were first published. The first prints were sometimes different.
- 6 of today’s 12 signs switched on in the past year or less. A hard threshold flips near its line, so the value beside each sign shows how close it is.
- For a single split-market test with its full threshold grid, see the Titanic Syndrome; for plain-English answers that weigh several gauges, see Market Questions.
Warning signs onOctober 15, 2026
12
of 39
More than on 63% of sessions since 1990.
Rates and the Fed5/7
Credit and financial conditions0/6
Under the surface2/5
Leverage and sentiment2/6
Valuation2/2
The economy1/13
Share of each bear market’s signs on today
55%
2000 · 11/20
29%
2007 · 6/21
29%
2020 · 7/24
53%
2022 · 8/15
A count of fixed rules, never a score. Each sign’s rule and record are below.
How Bear Market Warning Signs Works
- 1Thirty-nine signs, each a fixed ruleEach warning sign is a plain test with a round-number threshold, such as the 10-year yield up a point in a year or jobless claims 15% above their low. The thresholds were set before any result was examined and none was tuned afterwards. Every rule is printed on the page.
- 2Release dates, not reference monthsMonthly and weekly data such as payrolls, margin debt and the leading indicator count from the day they were published, so no sign uses information the market did not have yet. Old readings use today's revised values.
- 3Bear markets found mechanicallyA bear market is an S&P 500 record close followed by a fall of 20% or more before the next record. That rule finds the peaks of 1973, 1980, 1987, 2000, 2007, 2020 and 2022. For each, the page records which signs were on at any point in the six months (126 sessions) before the peak.
- 4A count, never a scoreThe headline is the number of signs on today. Signs are not weighted or blended, so each one can be checked against its own rule and its own record.
- 5Graded against ordinary daysFor every sign, the page measures how often a day with the sign on was followed by an S&P 500 fall of 20% or more within a year, and compares it with every day in the same record. Signs that compare parts of the market only count with the S&P 500 near its high, and are compared with every near-high day.
Who Uses Bear Market Warning Signs
Investors asking whether a bear market is coming
The page shows which of the classic warnings are on today and, for each one, how often it has been followed by a bear market compared with an ordinary day.
Anyone comparing today with 2007, 2020 or 2022
A matrix sets today's signs beside the six months before every bear market since 1973, and measures how many of each one's signs are on now.
Risk managers
The signs are grouped into rates, credit, market internals, leverage, valuation and the economy, so it is clear which part of the system is flashing and which is quiet.
Pro Tips
01
Every bear market had a different set
The run-ups to 2007 and 2020 were marked by credit and jobs warnings; 2022 by rate hikes, inflation and an oil spike. No sign with data back to 1973 was on before every bear market since, which is why the page lists them all rather than naming one.
02
Many signs are on most of the time
A sign that is on a third of all days will be on before most bear markets by chance. Compare each sign's odds when it is on with the baseline before reading anything into it.
03
Resemblance is a description
The share of a past bear market's signs on today says how alike the conditions are, not what happens next. Some of the closest matches in the record came to nothing.
Common Issues & Solutions
A sign switches on and off within days▾
Each rule is a hard threshold, so a reading near its line can flip from one session to the next. The value beside each sign shows how close it is.
Some signs have no reading for older bear markets▾
Several series start later: the VIX in 1990, the leading indicator and margin debt in the 1990s, the equal-weight S&P 500 fund in 2003. A blank cell means the series had not started yet.
Monthly signs lag the market▾
Economic data is counted from its release date, a few weeks after the month it covers, and a print stays current until the next one. Margin debt carries no release date and is assumed known 50 days after the month ends.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the warning signs of a bear market?▾
The warnings most often cited are an inverted yield curve, widening credit spreads, rising jobless claims, falling leading indicators, surging margin debt, extreme valuations, and a market rising on fewer stocks, such as small caps, transports or the equal-weight index lagging while the S&P 500 makes highs. This page checks 39 of them every session and shows which were on before each bear market since 1973.
Can warning signs predict a bear market?▾
Not on their own timing. Most signs on this page roughly double the odds of a 20% fall within a year when they are on, but each is on for long stretches that end without one. Every bear market since 1973 was preceded by a different mix of signs, and some of the closest matches to past bear markets came to nothing.
How many bear market warning signs are on today?▾
As of October 15, 2026, 12 of the 39 warning signs on this page are on, more than on 63% of sessions since 1990. They are: yield curve inverted in the past year; curve back above zero after inverting; 10-year yield up a point in a year; market pricing rate hikes; real yields jumping; small caps lagging at a high; transports not confirming; margin debt surging; households heavy in stocks; CAPE above 30; market cap to GDP at an extreme; oil price spike. The closest match among recent bear markets is 2000: 11 of the 20 signs on in the six months before that peak are on now.
What were the warning signs before the 2008 crash?▾
In the six months before the S&P 500 peaked on October 9, 2007, 21 of the signs on this page were on, among them: yield curve inverted in the past year; curve back above zero after inverting; Fed has hiked a point in two years; Fed cutting from its high; junk-bond spreads widening; corporate spreads widening; financial conditions tightening; financial stress above normal; financials lagging; small caps lagging at a high; equal weight lagging at a high; transports not confirming; defensives leading at a high; VIX complacency in the past year; margin debt surging; margin debt rolling over; market cap to GDP at an extreme; temp-help jobs shrinking; building permits falling; corporate profits falling; copper falling. The S&P 500 then fell 56.8% by March 9, 2009. 6 of those signs are on today.