Energy Tracker: Where the Oil Shock Sits, From Crude to the Pump
One chain, read in order: seaborne crude, the refinery’s margin, the inventory buffer, where the barrels go, and what reached the pump. Every reading is dated, links to its full history, and is measured since the Brent low of Jul 2, 2026.
- Crude
- $0.6032%
- Refining margin
- $1.0657%
- Retail & taxes
- $0.2011%
Most of the rise is refining margin; crude is the smaller part.
Pump price = crude ÷ 42 + crack ÷ 42 + retail layer, so the three parts sum exactly. Weekly EIA retail price; wholesale and crude on the same dates. The chain ↓
The chain since the anchor · each line = 100 on 2026-07-02
through 2026-09-22The anchor
Every “since” figure on this page is measured from Jul 2, 2026, the lowest Brent close of the trailing six months ($68.53). The date is found from the price series, not chosen. Brent has risen +67.6% since then and +18.5% over the last 30 days.
Gasoline, the same split
Retail gasoline moved +$0.65 per gallon between Jun 29, 2026 and Sep 21, 2026: $0.60 crude, −$0.12 refining margin, $0.17 retail and taxes. The gasoline crack narrowed while the diesel crack widened: the same crude, two different products.
The chain, crude to pump
Read down the table. Each stage answers one question about where the pressure sits. “Since” is measured since the Brent low of Jul 2, 2026; the reference column is the highest reading in the full record before that date for prices and margins, and the lowest of the five years before it for buffers. Past that reference today: Retail diesel.
| Reading | Latest | Since anchor | 30 days | Reference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Crude What does the input cost, and is the pressure seaborne or domestic? | ||||
| Brent crude2026-09-22 | $114.89/barrel | +67.6% | +18.5% | $143.95record · 2008-07 |
| WTI crude2026-09-22 | $96.41/barrel | +38.3% | +10.5% | $145.31record · 2008-07 |
| Brent − WTI spread2026-09-22 | $18.48/barrel | +$19.68 | +90.3% | 96th pct since 2000 |
| 02 Refining How much of the pump price is the refinery taking, and is it running flat out? | ||||
| Diesel crack2026-09-22 | $113.88/barrel | +77.4% | +13.1% | $118.74record · 2022-05 |
| Gasoline crack2026-09-22 | $52.73/barrel | −0.3% | −3.6% | $70.41record · 2022-06 |
| 3-2-1 crack spread2026-09-22 | $73.12/barrel | +29.0% | +4.4% | $75.89record · 2022-05 |
| Refinery utilization2026-09-18 | 94.0% of capacity | −2.7% | −3.3% | 100.5record · 1998-08 |
| 03 Buffer How much cushion is in storage for the season? | ||||
| Distillate inventories2026-09-18 | 107.4million barrels | −1.1% | +1.7% | 100.85-yr low · 2026-05 |
| Distillate cover2026-09-18 | 29.5days of supply | −0.3% | +3.9% | 25.45-yr low · 2022-10 |
| Gasoline inventories2026-09-18 | 206.0million barrels | −3.7% | −1.6% | 205.15-yr low · 2025-11 |
| 04 Outlet Are the barrels being used at home or leaving the country? | ||||
| Distillate demand2026-09-18 | 3.64million barrels / day | −0.9% | −2.2% | 4.70record · 2007-02 |
| Distillate exports2026-09-18 | 1.56million barrels / day | +8.9% | −13.5% | 1.66record · 2026-05 |
| Gasoline demand2026-09-18 | 8.78million barrels / day | −2.0% | −1.7% | 9.78record · 2019-08 |
| 05 Pump What has reached the consumer? | ||||
| Retail diesel2026-09-21 | $6.529/gallon | +39.9% | +19.7% | $5.810record · 2022-06passed |
| Retail gasoline2026-09-21 | $4.478/gallon | +16.9% | +10.6% | $5.006record · 2022-06 |
Prior shocks: Brent up 25% in 30 days, since 1990
What happened after the last 14 runs of this size. An episode begins on the first day Brent is 25% or more above its close 30 calendar days earlier, with at least 126 sessions between episodes. Brent’s next 63 sessions averaged +17.8% (median +9.4%) across the 14 completed episodes, against +3.3% (median +1.8%) for every session since 1990. These 14 cases, with causes as different as 1990, 2020 and 2022, do not make a forecast; the columns show how far each run carried and what the diesel margin did. The current 30-day rise is +18.5%, short of the threshold, so today is not a new episode.
| Episode start | Brent | 30-day rise | Peak within 63 | Brent +63 | Brent +126 | Diesel crack, start → max | Retail diesel +63 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 1, 1990 | $19.93 | +29.4% | $41.451990-09 | +73.9% | +2.4% | — | — |
| Jan 11, 1999 | $12.07 | +30.3% | $15.021999-03 | +21.6% | +61.4% | — | +12.1% |
| May 10, 2000 | $26.59 | +26.1% | $32.152000-07 | +3.7% | +15.9% | — | +0.6% |
| Mar 22, 2002 | $24.83 | +27.7% | $27.172002-05 | +0.6% | +14.6% | — | +2.4% |
| Dec 17, 2002 | $29.25 | +25.4% | $34.942003-03 | −2.9% | −6.0% | — | +25.1% |
| Jul 29, 2004 | $40.93 | +25.5% | $52.282004-10 | +27.1% | +11.8% | — | +26.1% |
| Mar 9, 2005 | $54.11 | +26.7% | $56.032005-03 | −4.6% | +21.9% | — | +3.0% |
| Jan 6, 2009 | $48.89 | +32.0% | $51.892009-03 | +3.5% | +22.1% | $22 → $28 | −2.7% |
| Feb 13, 2015 | $60.33 | +31.7% | $66.332015-05 | +8.7% | −20.0% | $32 → $47 | +1.5% |
| Mar 9, 2016 | $40.26 | +27.2% | $50.732016-06 | +26.0% | +16.0% | $14 → $15 | +19.1% |
| Dec 12, 2016 | $53.99 | +29.8% | $56.342017-02 | −8.1% | −12.6% | $16 → $18 | +2.8% |
| May 11, 2020 | $25.53 | +26.2% | $45.042020-08 | +72.6% | +54.6% | $12 → $12 | +1.3% |
| Jan 19, 2022 | $89.64 | +27.1% | $133.182022-03 | +17.2% | +29.3% | $26 → $73 | +36.9% |
| Mar 5, 2026 | $88.59 | +26.5% | $138.212026-04 | +10.0% | +15.4% | $67 → $99 | +33.7% |
Supply buffers
How much cushion is in storage? For the week ending 2026-09-18, distillate inventories were 12.2% below their five-year seasonal average. Compare the buffer with days of supply and domestic demand before attributing a price move to a shortage.
Distillate inventories · million barrels
Full indicator →Diesel and heating oil stocks compared with a five-year seasonal average. The chart shows the actual stock level.
Demand & trade
Are more barrels being used at home or sent abroad? These readings use four-week averages and compare with 52 weeks earlier. Product supplied approximates domestic consumption; exports show a separate outlet for US refinery output.
Gasoline demand · million barrels / day
Full indicator →Four-week average product supplied, EIA’s proxy for domestic consumption. Smoothing reduces the noise in individual weekly estimates.
Natural gas & the grid
Is the pressure spreading to the other fuel? Natural gas is a separate market with its own storage cycle. Its price, storage and the share of generation it supplies sit here for context; they do not enter the oil chain above.
Natural gas · $ / MMBtu
Full indicator →Henry Hub daily spot price. Storage and electricity demand provide context farther down this page.
Sources, methodology & freshnessLast updated 2026-09-23 · Open ↓Close ↑
Definitions: EIA product supplied. Gas-market context: EIA market drivers. These readings describe energy conditions; they do not establish causation or predict investment returns.
- Crude
- $0.6032%
- Refining margin
- $1.0657%
- Retail & taxes
- $0.2011%
Most of the rise is refining margin; crude is the smaller part.
Pump price = crude ÷ 42 + crack ÷ 42 + retail layer, so the three parts sum exactly. Weekly EIA retail price; wholesale and crude on the same dates. The chain ↓
How Energy Tracker Works
- 1Split the pump price into its three partsA gallon at the pump is crude ÷ 42, plus the crack spread ÷ 42, plus the layer between the wholesale terminal and the retail price (distribution, retail margin and taxes). The change in each part between two dates sums exactly to the change in the retail price, so the answer card can say how many cents came from crude and how many from the refinery. Wholesale and crude prices are taken on the same dates as the weekly EIA retail observation.
- 2Measure everything from one anchorEvery "since" figure is measured from the lowest Brent close of the trailing six months, used only when Brent has since risen at least 15%; otherwise the page measures over 30 calendar days. The date comes from the price series, never from an editorial choice, though a dated event can override it in config. Crack spreads measure wholesale product prices less crude cost; a widening spread shows the product becoming more expensive relative to crude and does not identify the cause on its own.
- 3Read inventories in seasonPetroleum seasonal comparisons use the prior five years, taking the average within 14 calendar days of each anniversary and weighting each year equally. Each year needs at least three observations. Natural gas uses the existing same-calendar-week five-year baseline. These are descriptive comparisons using the latest revised history.
- 4Smooth demand and keep the dates visibleDemand and exports use four-week averages, compared with 52 weeks earlier. Other non-seasonal indicator cards show the percentage change over 30 calendar days, using the last observation on or before that date, at most eight days earlier. Grid demand uses the existing seven-day annual comparison. Charts retain observation dates; weekly petroleum releases usually arrive after the survey week. This is not a release-aligned trading backtest.
- 5Compare with prior shocks, then inspect the evidenceThe shock table finds every episode since 1990 on which Brent closed 25% or more above its close 30 calendar days earlier, keeping one episode per 126-session gap, and shows how far each run carried, what Brent did over the next 63 and 126 sessions against the unconditional baseline, and what the diesel crack and pump price did. These are price paths, not forecasts.
- 6Inspect the evidenceSelect any reading to see its history, source and download. Daily feeds and weekly reports refresh through the existing data pipeline. Missing series show as unavailable; each chart checks freshness independently. The dashboard does not combine unlike measures into an energy score or forecast.