Mar 5, 2026$88.59 · +26.5% in 30d
+63: +10.0%+126: +15.4%peak $138
diesel crack $67 → $99 · pump +63 +33.7%
EnergyDaily & weekly releases · latest Oct 12, 2026
Energy Tracker: Where the Oil Shock Sits, From Crude to the Pump
One chain, read in order: seaborne crude, the refinery’s margin, the inventory buffer, where the barrels go, and what reached the pump. Every reading is dated, links to its full history, and is measured since the Brent low of Jul 2, 2026.
Retail diesel2026-10-05
$6.20per gallon
+$1.53 (+32.8%) since the Brent low of Jul 2, 2026Record
- Crude
- $0.5838%
- Refining margin
- $0.7348%
- Retail & taxes
- $0.2214%
Most of the rise is refining margin; crude is the smaller part.
Brent − WTI
$29.20
100th pct
Diesel crack
$101.71
+58.4% since
Distillates
105.1
−11.8% vs season
Pump price = crude ÷ 42 + crack ÷ 42 + retail layer, so the three parts sum exactly. Weekly EIA retail price; wholesale and crude on the same dates. The chain ↓
Where the pressure sits
crude → refinery → storage → exports → pumpFlagged today: crude, refining, buffer, pump.
- 01 · CrudeShockBrent crude$125.44+83% since the anchor, +23% in 30 days
- 02 · RefiningNear recordDiesel crack$101.7186% of its 2022 record
- 03 · BufferTightDistillate inventories105.1−12% vs the five-year seasonal average
- 04 · OutletExports surgingDistillate exports1.56+24% vs a year earlier (four-week average)
- 05 · PumpRecordRetail diesel$6.20+33% since the anchor
Status rules: crude is a shock at +25% since the anchor and rising at +10%; the diesel crack is near record at 85% of its pre-anchor record; distillate stocks are tight at 10% below the five-year seasonal average; exports are surging at +15% on a year earlier; the pump is near record at 90% of its record. Each stage links to the full chain table below.
The shock, stage by stage
100 = 2026-07-02 · through 2026-10-06Each line is indexed to 100 at the anchor, so a reading of 150 means up half since the Brent low of Jul 2, 2026.
Crude
BrentWTI
Refining margins
Diesel crackGasoline crack
The pump
Retail dieselRetail gasoline
The anchor
Every “since” figure on this page is measured from Jul 2, 2026, the lowest Brent close of the trailing six months ($68.53). The date is found from the price series, not chosen. Brent has risen +83.0% since then and +22.7% over the last 30 days.
Gasoline, the same split
Retail gasoline moved +$0.52 per gallon between Jun 29, 2026 and Oct 5, 2026: $0.58 crude, −$0.31 refining margin, $0.25 retail and taxes. The gasoline crack narrowed while the diesel crack widened: the same crude, two different products.
01
The chain, crude to pump
Read down the table. Each stage answers one question about where the pressure sits. “Since” is measured since the Brent low of Jul 2, 2026; the reference column is the highest reading in the full record before that date for prices and margins, and the lowest of the five years before it for buffers. Past that reference today: Gasoline inventories, Retail diesel.
01 Crude
What does the input cost, and is the pressure seaborne or domestic?
- Brent crude$125.44since anchor +83.0%30d +22.7%record $143.95
- WTI crude$96.24since anchor +38.0%30d +3.8%record $145.31
- Brent − WTI spread$29.20since anchor +$30.4030d +205.8%100th pct since 2000
02 Refining
How much of the pump price is the refinery taking, and is it running flat out?
- Diesel crack$101.71since anchor +58.4%30d +3.4%record $118.74
- Gasoline crack$46.39since anchor −12.3%30d +6.4%record $70.41
- 3-2-1 crack spread$64.83since anchor +14.4%30d +4.8%record $75.89
- since anchor −4.0%30d −5.4%record 100.5
03 Buffer
How much cushion is in storage for the season?
- since anchor −3.2%30d +0.9%5-yr low 100.8
- Distillate cover27.9since anchor −5.7%30d −2.1%5-yr low 25.4
- Gasoline inventories204.7since anchor −4.3%30d −0.4%5-yr low 205.1 · passed
04 Outlet
Are the barrels being used at home or leaving the country?
- since anchor +2.8%30d +3.0%record 4.70
- since anchor +8.9%30d −11.7%record 1.66
- Gasoline demand8.78since anchor −2.1%30d −1.4%record 9.78
05 Pump
What has reached the consumer?
- Retail diesel$6.199since anchor +32.8%30d +10.7%record $5.810 · passed
- Retail gasoline$4.354since anchor +13.7%30d +7.0%record $5.006
| Reading | Latest | Since anchor | 30 days | Reference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Crude What does the input cost, and is the pressure seaborne or domestic? | ||||
| Brent crude2026-10-06 | $125.44/barrel | +83.0% | +22.7% | $143.95record · 2008-07 |
| WTI crude2026-10-06 | $96.24/barrel | +38.0% | +3.8% | $145.31record · 2008-07 |
| Brent − WTI spread2026-10-06 | $29.20/barrel | +$30.40 | +205.8% | 100th pct since 2000 |
| 02 Refining How much of the pump price is the refinery taking, and is it running flat out? | ||||
| Diesel crack2026-10-06 | $101.71/barrel | +58.4% | +3.4% | $118.74record · 2022-05 |
| Gasoline crack2026-10-06 | $46.39/barrel | −12.3% | +6.4% | $70.41record · 2022-06 |
| 3-2-1 crack spread2026-10-06 | $64.83/barrel | +14.4% | +4.8% | $75.89record · 2022-05 |
| Refinery utilization2026-10-02 | 92.7% of capacity | −4.0% | −5.4% | 100.5record · 1998-08 |
| 03 Buffer How much cushion is in storage for the season? | ||||
| Distillate inventories2026-10-02 | 105.1million barrels | −3.2% | +0.9% | 100.85-yr low · 2026-05 |
| Distillate cover2026-10-02 | 27.9days of supply | −5.7% | −2.1% | 25.45-yr low · 2022-10 |
| Gasoline inventories2026-10-02 | 204.7million barrels | −4.3% | −0.4% | 205.15-yr low · 2025-11passed |
| 04 Outlet Are the barrels being used at home or leaving the country? | ||||
| Distillate demand2026-10-02 | 3.77million barrels / day | +2.8% | +3.0% | 4.70record · 2007-02 |
| Distillate exports2026-10-02 | 1.56million barrels / day | +8.9% | −11.7% | 1.66record · 2026-05 |
| Gasoline demand2026-10-02 | 8.78million barrels / day | −2.1% | −1.4% | 9.78record · 2019-08 |
| 05 Pump What has reached the consumer? | ||||
| Retail diesel2026-10-05 | $6.199/gallon | +32.8% | +10.7% | $5.810record · 2022-06passed |
| Retail gasoline2026-10-05 | $4.354/gallon | +13.7% | +7.0% | $5.006record · 2022-06 |
02
Prior shocks: Brent up 25% in 30 days, since 1990
What happened after the last 14 runs of this size. An episode begins on the first day Brent is 25% or more above its close 30 calendar days earlier, with at least 126 sessions between episodes. Brent’s next 63 sessions averaged +17.8% (median +9.4%) across the 14 completed episodes, against +3.3% (median +1.8%) for every session since 1990. These 14 cases, with causes as different as 1990, 2020 and 2022, do not make a forecast; the columns show how far each run carried and what the diesel margin did. The current 30-day rise is +22.7%, short of the threshold, so today is not a new episode.
Jan 19, 2022$89.64 · +27.1% in 30d
+63: +17.2%+126: +29.3%peak $133
diesel crack $26 → $73 · pump +63 +36.9%
May 11, 2020$25.53 · +26.2% in 30d
+63: +72.6%+126: +54.6%peak $45
diesel crack $12 → $12 · pump +63 +1.3%
Dec 12, 2016$53.99 · +29.8% in 30d
+63: −8.1%+126: −12.6%peak $56
diesel crack $16 → $18 · pump +63 +2.8%
Mar 9, 2016$40.26 · +27.2% in 30d
+63: +26.0%+126: +16.0%peak $51
diesel crack $14 → $15 · pump +63 +19.1%
Feb 13, 2015$60.33 · +31.7% in 30d
+63: +8.7%+126: −20.0%peak $66
diesel crack $32 → $47 · pump +63 +1.5%
Jan 6, 2009$48.89 · +32.0% in 30d
+63: +3.5%+126: +22.1%peak $52
diesel crack $22 → $28 · pump +63 −2.7%
Mar 9, 2005$54.11 · +26.7% in 30d
+63: −4.6%+126: +21.9%peak $56
· pump +63 +3.0%
Jul 29, 2004$40.93 · +25.5% in 30d
+63: +27.1%+126: +11.8%peak $52
· pump +63 +26.1%
Dec 17, 2002$29.25 · +25.4% in 30d
+63: −2.9%+126: −6.0%peak $35
· pump +63 +25.1%
Mar 22, 2002$24.83 · +27.7% in 30d
+63: +0.6%+126: +14.6%peak $27
· pump +63 +2.4%
May 10, 2000$26.59 · +26.1% in 30d
+63: +3.7%+126: +15.9%peak $32
· pump +63 +0.6%
Jan 11, 1999$12.07 · +30.3% in 30d
+63: +21.6%+126: +61.4%peak $15
· pump +63 +12.1%
Aug 1, 1990$19.93 · +29.4% in 30d
+63: +73.9%+126: +2.4%peak $41
| Episode start | Brent | 30-day rise | Peak within 63 | Brent +63 | Brent +126 | Diesel crack, start → max | Retail diesel +63 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 1, 1990 | $19.93 | +29.4% | $41.451990-09 | +73.9% | +2.4% | — | — |
| Jan 11, 1999 | $12.07 | +30.3% | $15.021999-03 | +21.6% | +61.4% | — | +12.1% |
| May 10, 2000 | $26.59 | +26.1% | $32.152000-07 | +3.7% | +15.9% | — | +0.6% |
| Mar 22, 2002 | $24.83 | +27.7% | $27.172002-05 | +0.6% | +14.6% | — | +2.4% |
| Dec 17, 2002 | $29.25 | +25.4% | $34.942003-03 | −2.9% | −6.0% | — | +25.1% |
| Jul 29, 2004 | $40.93 | +25.5% | $52.282004-10 | +27.1% | +11.8% | — | +26.1% |
| Mar 9, 2005 | $54.11 | +26.7% | $56.032005-03 | −4.6% | +21.9% | — | +3.0% |
| Jan 6, 2009 | $48.89 | +32.0% | $51.892009-03 | +3.5% | +22.1% | $22 → $28 | −2.7% |
| Feb 13, 2015 | $60.33 | +31.7% | $66.332015-05 | +8.7% | −20.0% | $32 → $47 | +1.5% |
| Mar 9, 2016 | $40.26 | +27.2% | $50.732016-06 | +26.0% | +16.0% | $14 → $15 | +19.1% |
| Dec 12, 2016 | $53.99 | +29.8% | $56.342017-02 | −8.1% | −12.6% | $16 → $18 | +2.8% |
| May 11, 2020 | $25.53 | +26.2% | $45.042020-08 | +72.6% | +54.6% | $12 → $12 | +1.3% |
| Jan 19, 2022 | $89.64 | +27.1% | $133.182022-03 | +17.2% | +29.3% | $26 → $73 | +36.9% |
| Mar 5, 2026 | $88.59 | +26.5% | $138.212026-04 | +10.0% | +15.4% | $67 → $99 | +33.7% |
03
Supply buffers
How much cushion is in storage? For the week ending 2026-10-02, distillate inventories were 11.8% below their five-year seasonal average. Compare the buffer with days of supply and domestic demand before attributing a price move to a shortage.
Distillate inventories
2026-10-02 · weekly105.1million barrels
-11.8% vs 5-year seasonal average
Gasoline inventories
2026-10-02 · weekly204.7million barrels
-6.2% vs 5-year seasonal average
Distillate cover
2026-10-02 · weekly27.9days of supply
-8.8% vs 5-year seasonal average
Distillate cover4-week average
Charts show the last three years; each reading keeps its own observation date.
04
Demand & trade
Are more barrels being used at home or sent abroad? These readings use four-week averages and compare with 52 weeks earlier. Product supplied approximates domestic consumption; exports show a separate outlet for US refinery output.
Gasoline demand
2026-10-02 · weekly8.78million barrels / day
-0.3% vs 52 weeks ago · 4-week average
Distillate demand
2026-10-02 · weekly3.77million barrels / day
-1.6% vs 52 weeks ago · 4-week average
Distillate exports
2026-10-02 · weekly1.56million barrels / day
+24.0% vs 52 weeks ago · 4-week average
Charts show the last three years; each reading keeps its own observation date.
05
Natural gas & the grid
Is the pressure spreading to the other fuel? Natural gas is a separate market with its own storage cycle. Its price, storage and the share of generation it supplies sit here for context; they do not enter the oil chain above.
Natural gas
2026-10-06 · daily$3.03$ / MMBtu
+3.8% over 30 calendar days
Natural gas200-day average
Natural gas storage
2026-10-02 · weekly3,500billion cubic feet
+2.3% vs 5-year same-week average
Natural gas storage5-year same-week average
Average grid demand
2026-10-12 · daily487.7GW
+3.9% vs a year ago · 7-day average
Peak grid demand
2026-10-12 · daily581.4GW
Highest demand hour of the day
Renewable generation
2026-10-12 · daily28.1% of generation
Natural gas supplied 38.2% of generation
Charts show the last three years; each reading keeps its own observation date.
Sources, methodology & freshnessEIA petroleum, natural gas and electricity data; spot and retail price series via FRED · Existing daily pipeline; each series keeps its daily or weekly reporting cadenceData as of 2026-10-12 · Open ↓Close ↑
Source
EIA petroleum, natural gas and electricity data; spot and retail price series via FRED
Methodology
Observed prices and volumes; gross crack spreads; an exact crude/margin/retail split of the pump price; five-year seasonal comparisons; four-week demand and export averages; mechanically found Brent shock episodes against the unconditional baseline
Updates
Existing daily pipeline; each series keeps its daily or weekly reporting cadenceData as of 2026-10-12
Maintained & reviewed by Yuriy Matso — methodology shown on the page.
Definitions: EIA product supplied. Gas-market context: EIA market drivers. These readings describe energy conditions; they do not establish causation or predict investment returns.
Retail diesel2026-10-05
$6.20per gallon
+$1.53 (+32.8%) since the Brent low of Jul 2, 2026Record
- Crude
- $0.5838%
- Refining margin
- $0.7348%
- Retail & taxes
- $0.2214%
Most of the rise is refining margin; crude is the smaller part.
Brent − WTI
$29.20
100th pct
Diesel crack
$101.71
+58.4% since
Distillates
105.1
−11.8% vs season
Pump price = crude ÷ 42 + crack ÷ 42 + retail layer, so the three parts sum exactly. Weekly EIA retail price; wholesale and crude on the same dates. The chain ↓
How Energy Tracker Works
- 1Split the pump price into its three partsA gallon at the pump is crude ÷ 42, plus the crack spread ÷ 42, plus the layer between the wholesale terminal and the retail price (distribution, retail margin and taxes). The change in each part between two dates sums exactly to the change in the retail price, so the answer card can say how many cents came from crude and how many from the refinery. Wholesale and crude prices are taken on the same dates as the weekly EIA retail observation.
- 2Measure everything from one anchorEvery "since" figure is measured from the lowest Brent close of the trailing six months, used only when Brent has since risen at least 15%; otherwise the page measures over 30 calendar days. The date comes from the price series, never from an editorial choice, though a dated event can override it in config. Crack spreads measure wholesale product prices less crude cost; a widening spread shows the product becoming more expensive relative to crude and does not identify the cause on its own.
- 3Read inventories in seasonPetroleum seasonal comparisons use the prior five years, taking the average within 14 calendar days of each anniversary and weighting each year equally. Each year needs at least three observations. Natural gas uses the existing same-calendar-week five-year baseline. These are descriptive comparisons using the latest revised history.
- 4Smooth demand and keep the dates visibleDemand and exports use four-week averages, compared with 52 weeks earlier. Other non-seasonal indicator cards show the percentage change over 30 calendar days, using the last observation on or before that date, at most eight days earlier. Grid demand uses the existing seven-day annual comparison. Charts retain observation dates; weekly petroleum releases usually arrive after the survey week. This is not a release-aligned trading backtest.
- 5Compare with prior shocks, then inspect the evidenceThe shock table finds every episode since 1990 on which Brent closed 25% or more above its close 30 calendar days earlier, keeping one episode per 126-session gap, and shows how far each run carried, what Brent did over the next 63 and 126 sessions against the unconditional baseline, and what the diesel crack and pump price did. These are price paths, not forecasts.
- 6Inspect the evidenceSelect any reading to see its history, source and download. Daily feeds and weekly reports refresh through the existing data pipeline. Missing series show as unavailable; each chart checks freshness independently. The dashboard does not combine unlike measures into an energy score or forecast.
Frequently Asked Questions
How much of the diesel price rise is crude and how much is the refinery?▾
The answer card splits the change in the US retail diesel price since the anchor date into crude (the change in WTI divided by 42), refining margin (the change in the diesel crack divided by 42) and the retail layer (the change in the gap between the New York Harbor wholesale price and the pump). The three parts sum exactly to the retail change. The same split is shown for gasoline.
What is the anchor date and who chose it?▾
Nobody chose it. The anchor is the lowest Brent close in the trailing 126 sessions, used when Brent has since risen 15% or more. Otherwise the page measures change over 30 calendar days. An editor can override it with a dated event through a config file, and the page then says so.
What happened after previous oil shocks?▾
The tracker lists every episode since 1990 on which Brent closed 25% or more above its level 30 calendar days earlier, one per 126-session gap, with the peak reached within 63 sessions, the change over the next 63 and 126 sessions against the unconditional baseline, the path of the diesel crack where the series exists, and the change in retail diesel. With causes as different as 1990, 2020 and 2022, the table describes history and does not forecast.
What does the Energy Tracker cover?▾
The tracker brings together crude oil, retail gasoline and diesel, Henry Hub natural gas, refining margins, refinery utilization and capacity, fuel inventories, domestic demand, distillate exports and lower-48 electricity data.
Why can diesel prices rise faster than crude oil?▾
Diesel is a finished product with its own supply and demand. Its wholesale premium over crude is the diesel crack spread. Compare that spread with inventories, refinery activity, domestic product supplied and exports to investigate a divergence. The dashboard shows those relationships without asserting a single cause.
Are crack spreads refinery profits?▾
They are gross spot benchmarks. The 3-2-1 spread assumes three barrels of crude produce two barrels of gasoline and one of diesel. It excludes operating costs, transport, compliance costs and the particular crude mix and yields of each refinery.
Does product supplied measure actual fuel consumption?▾
EIA uses product supplied as an approximation of petroleum consumption. Weekly estimates are noisy and subject to revision, so the tracker uses four-week averages for gasoline demand, distillate demand and distillate exports.
Are all readings from the same day?▾
No. Oil and gas spot prices and grid data are daily; retail prices, petroleum balances and gas storage are weekly. Every card identifies its observation date. A fresh daily price does not imply that the weekly inventory report has updated.
Does low days of supply mean fuel will run out?▾
No. Days of supply divides inventories by a recent daily consumption estimate. Production, imports and exports continue while stocks are drawn down or rebuilt. The ratio describes the inventory buffer relative to demand.
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