SentimentUpdated daily after close · as of 2026-06-18

Leveraged ETF Speculation Index: Bull vs Bear Sentiment

A contrarian sentiment gauge built from the dollar volume of matched bull and bear leveraged (2x/3x) ETFs — TQQQ vs SQQQ, SOXL vs SOXS, and seven more pairs. When traders crowd the bullish funds the index runs hot (greed); when they pile into the inverse funds it sinks (fear). Ranked against 16 years of history.

Today's reading

As of market close on June 18, 2026, the Leveraged ETF Speculation Index reads 71% bull — the 80th percentile since 2009, a greed reading, with leveraged traders crowded into the bullish funds. The most one-sided corner is Financials at 84% bull. Total leveraged trading volume is in the 100th percentile — speculation activity is running hot. As a contrarian gauge, greed extremes have clustered near market tops and fear extremes near bottoms.

Source

Leveraged 2x/3x ETF closes & volume (9 bull/bear pairs), 2009+

Methodology

Bull share of leveraged $ volume, 20-day smoothed, percentile-ranked since 2009

Updates

Daily after market closeLast: 2026-06-18

Leveraged speculation2026-06-18

71%

Greed

bull share of leveraged $-volume — the 80th percentile since 2009.

Raw bull share

75%

Activity pctile

100th

leveraged $ vol

Greed peak

86%

2021-11

Window:

Speculation index vs the S&P 500

The 20-day smoothed bull share (black, left axis) against SPY (gray, right axis). Readings in the shaded greed band (top 20% of history) have clustered near tops; the fear band (bottom 20%) near bottoms.

Where the speculation is

Each leveraged theme's bull share (20-day) and its slice of total leveraged dollar volume, sorted most-bullish first. The 1-year column shows how positioning has shifted.

Theme	Pair	Bull share	1Y ago	% of $vol
Financials	FAS/FAZ	84%	44% ▲	0.4%
Semiconductors	SOXL/SOXS	79%	66% ▲	55.2%
Gold Miners	NUGT/DUST	68%	63% ▲	0.5%
China	YINN/YANG	67%	66% ▲	0.3%
Nasdaq 100	TQQQ/SQQQ	66%	69% ▼	29.6%
Biotech	LABU/LABD	59%	54% ▲	0.7%
Dow 30	UDOW/SDOW	57%	64% ▼	1.0%
S&P 500	UPRO/SPXU	55%	63% ▼	6.3%
Small Caps	TNA/TZA	27%	66% ▼	6.0%

Note: a rising bull share is colored as greed because the index is contrarian — crowding into the long funds is the caution signal.

Speculation activity

Total dollar volume across all leveraged funds (21-day average). Surges mark periods of intense speculative churn — currently the 100th percentile of the last 16 years.

How Leveraged ETF Speculation Index Works

1
Pair every bull fund with its bear twin
Leveraged ETFs come in matched long/short pairs on the same exposure — TQQQ (3x long Nasdaq 100) vs SQQQ (3x short), SOXL vs SOXS on semiconductors, SPXL/UPRO vs SPXS/SPXU on the S&P 500, and so on across nine themes. These funds are dominated by short-term, speculative traders, which makes the balance between the bull and bear sides a clean read on crowd positioning.
2
Measure the bull share of leveraged dollar volume
For every session we compute dollar volume (price × shares traded) on each side, sum the bull funds and the bear funds across all pairs, and take the bull share: bull ÷ (bull + bear) × 100. Because it is volume-weighted, the most-traded funds (TQQQ/SQQQ, SOXL/SOXS) carry the most signal. We then smooth it over 20 trading days to cut the daily noise.
3
Rank it against 16 years of history
The smoothed bull share is scored as a percentile of its full history since 2009 and bucketed into Extreme Fear, Fear, Neutral, Greed, or Extreme Greed. A reading in the top decile means leverage is crowded long — historically a froth/greed warning; a bottom-decile reading marks fear and capitulation.
4
Read it as a contrarian gauge
High readings have clustered near major tops (the bull share peaked in late 2021, just before the 2022 bear market); low readings clustered near major bottoms (2011 and the 2022 lows). It is a sentiment extreme detector, not a timing trigger — confirm with trend and breadth before acting.

Who Uses Leveraged ETF Speculation Index

Contrarians

Fade the crowd at extremes — when leverage is piled into the bullish funds at a multi-year high, the easy upside is usually behind you; when the inverse funds dominate, fear is peaking.

Risk managers

Treat extreme-greed readings as a cue to tighten risk and extreme-fear readings as a cue to stop pressing shorts. The index quantifies how stretched speculative positioning has become.

Rotation traders

The per-theme breakdown shows which corners are hot — heavy bull-share concentration in semis or Nasdaq leverage flags where the speculative money is crowding right now.

Pro Tips

Direction and extremes, not the level

A reading of 65% is roughly average — the signal is in the extremes (top/bottom decile) and in sharp reversals. A bull share rolling over from an extreme high is more telling than its absolute value.

Watch total activity too

When total leveraged dollar volume is also at a historical extreme, the speculation signal is stronger — a crowded bull share on record volume is peak froth; on quiet volume it means less.

Volume ≠ assets

This gauge uses trading volume, which captures churn and intraday speculation. It is a fast, responsive read on positioning, but it is not the same as net assets or fund flows — the two can occasionally diverge.

Common Issues & Solutions

Why use leveraged ETFs for sentiment?▾

Leveraged 2x/3x ETFs are held almost entirely by short-term, speculative traders — buy-and-hold investors avoid them because of daily-reset decay. That makes the bull-vs-bear balance an unusually clean, real-money read on speculative positioning, updated every session.

Is a high reading bullish or bearish?▾

It is contrarian. A high bull share means traders are crowded into the long leveraged funds (greed) — historically a caution signal. A low reading means they have piled into the inverse funds (fear) — historically closer to a bottom. The index measures crowd extremes, not the market’s direction.

Why does it differ from a put/call ratio or VIX?▾

They measure different crowds. Put/call and VIX read the options market; this reads leveraged-ETF traders. They often agree at major extremes but can diverge — using several together is more robust than relying on any one.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Leveraged ETF Speculation Index?▾

It is a contrarian sentiment gauge that measures the balance of trading between bullish and bearish leveraged (2x/3x) ETFs. We sum the dollar volume of the long funds (TQQQ, SOXL, SPXL and others) and the short funds (SQQQ, SOXS, SPXS and others) across nine themes, then take the bull share — bull ÷ (bull + bear). A high share means speculative traders are crowded long; a low share means they have piled into the inverse funds.

How do I read it?▾

The smoothed bull share is ranked as a percentile of its history since 2009 and labeled Extreme Fear through Extreme Greed. Read it as a contrarian: extreme-greed readings have clustered near market tops (it peaked in late 2021) and extreme-fear readings near bottoms (2011 and 2022). It flags stretched positioning, not a precise buy or sell moment.

Which leveraged ETFs are included?▾

Nine matched bull/bear pairs: TQQQ/SQQQ (Nasdaq 100), UPRO+SPXL/SPXU+SPXS (S&P 500), SOXL/SOXS (semiconductors), TNA/TZA (small caps), UDOW/SDOW (Dow), FAS/FAZ (financials), YINN/YANG (China), NUGT/DUST (gold miners), and LABU/LABD (biotech). The index is volume-weighted, so the most-traded pairs carry the most signal.

Why is this a good sentiment indicator?▾

Leveraged ETFs are held almost exclusively by short-term, speculative traders because daily-reset decay makes them unsuitable for long-term holding. That isolates a pure speculative crowd, so the balance between their bullish and bearish bets is a clean, real-money sentiment read that updates every session — unlike weekly surveys.

Does it use fund flows or trading volume?▾

Trading volume (dollar volume = price × shares traded). That makes it fast and responsive to intraday speculation. It is not the same as net creation/redemption flows or assets under management, which would require separate fund-level data; volume and flows usually agree at extremes but can diverge.

How often is it updated?▾

Daily, after the US market close, alongside the rest of the pipeline. The bull share, its smoothed line, the percentile ranking, and the per-theme breakdown are all recomputed from leveraged-ETF closes and volume back to 2009.

Explore Other Tools

Commitment of Traders

Smart-money futures positioning with a 3-year COT Index — the institutional counterpart to this retail gauge

VIX Fear Index

The options market’s fear gauge with regime zones and a 16-year percentile

SPY Options Volume

Daily SPY call & put volume with the put/call ratio — another positioning read

Last updated: 2026-06-18