Risk & VolatilityUpdated daily after close · as of 2026-10-07
Tech Volatility Spread: Nasdaq vs S&P 500 (VXN − VIX)
How much more risk the options market is pricing into the Nasdaq-100 than the S&P 500 — the VXN − VIX implied-vol spread, plus the QQQ − SPY realized-vol spread. A wide spread means the market expects bigger, more violent swings for tech than for the broad market.
The reading
As of the October 7, 2026 close, the Nasdaq-100 vs S&P 500 implied-volatility spread (VXN − VIX) is 5.9 points — the 77th percentile since 2001 and about 1.3× its 5-year average of 4.7. The options market is pricing in materially more risk for technology than for the broad market. The all-time record is 41.6 (April 25, 2001, the dot-com unwind). Historically, when this spread is elevated the Nasdaq's forward returns have run weaker and less dominant than usual.
Sources, methodology & freshnessCBOE VXN & VIX daily closes, same-day via TradeStation (implied); QQQ & SPY price history (realized), 2001–present · Daily after US market close (~1pm PT)Data as of 2026-10-07 · Open ↓Close ↑
Source
CBOE VXN & VIX daily closes, same-day via TradeStation (implied); QQQ & SPY price history (realized), 2001–present
Methodology
Implied spread = VXN − VIX (30-day IV); realized spread = 15-session annualized realized vol of QQQ − SPY; percentile, z-score and forward returns vs history
Updates
Daily after US market close (~1pm PT)Data as of 2026-10-07
Maintained & reviewed by Yuriy Matso — methodology shown on the page.
Implied spread · VXN − VIX2026-10-07
5.9
pts
77th percentile since 2001 · 1.3× the 5-year average
5-year avg
4.7
Record
41.6
2001-04
Realized
+4.5
QQQ − SPY
A high tech-vol premium has historically preceded weaker, less tech-dominant forward returns — regime context, not a timing trigger.
01
Implied spread (VXN − VIX) and realized spread
Top: the implied tech-vol spread — Nasdaq-100 minus S&P 500 30-day implied volatility (dashed line = 5-year average). Below: the realizedspread — the 3-week annualized realized volatility of QQQ minus SPY, i.e. how much harder tech is actually swinging.
Window:loading history…
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02
What happened next — by spread regime
Average forward returns from days when the implied spread was elevated(top quintile of history) versus normal. When tech-vol premium is stretched, the Nasdaq has historically returned less and given up its usual edge over the S&P.
| Spread regime | Days | QQQ +3m | SPY +3m | QQQ − SPY +3m |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elevated (top 20%) | 1,291 | +0.9% | +0.8% | +0.1% |
| Normal | 5,143 | +3.9% | +2.4% | +1.5% |
Forward returns use QQQ/SPY closes ~63 trading days out from every day in each regime since 2001. Overlapping windows. The split is directional and is not a trade signal.
Implied spread · VXN − VIX2026-10-07
5.9
pts
77th percentile since 2001 · 1.3× the 5-year average
5-year avg
4.7
Record
41.6
2001-04
Realized
+4.5
QQQ − SPY
A high tech-vol premium has historically preceded weaker, less tech-dominant forward returns — regime context, not a timing trigger.
How Tech Volatility Spread Works
- 1Take the two headline volatility indicesVIX is the market's expected 30-day volatility for the S&P 500; VXN is the same thing for the Nasdaq-100. Both are published daily by CBOE from live options prices — the price of insurance on each index.
- 2Subtract to get the implied spreadThe implied tech-vol spread is simply VXN minus VIX. When it is large and positive, options traders are paying up for far more protection on tech than on the broad market — pricing in bigger, more violent swings for the Nasdaq than for the S&P 500.
- 3Add the realized spreadImplied vol is what the market expects; realized vol is what actually happened. We compute the annualized 3-week (15-session) realized volatility of QQQ and SPY from price history and take the difference. When the realized spread blows out, tech is actually swinging far harder than the index — not just priced to.
- 4Put it in contextA raw spread means little without history. We show the current reading against its full-history record, its 5-year average, its percentile and z-score — and what the Nasdaq and S&P did in the months after the spread was elevated versus normal.
Who Uses Tech Volatility Spread
Risk Managers
A single number for tech concentration risk. A blown-out implied spread means the options market expects the Nasdaq to move far more than the S&P — a regime-shift warning for tech-heavy books.
Options Traders
The relative-value gauge behind dispersion and index-vs-index vol trades. Extreme spreads flag when Nasdaq protection is expensive relative to the S&P.
Equity Investors
Context for the "is the tech trade fragile?" question. Pair the elevated-vs-normal forward returns with your positioning before adding to concentrated tech exposure.
Macro Watchers
Rising tech-vol premium often accompanies a rotation in risk perception — money treating megacap tech as the marginal source of index risk.
Pro Tips
01
Read the percentile before the raw points
A spread of 10 sounds alarming until you see it against history. The percentile and 5-year average tell you whether the current reading is genuinely stretched or merely above average.
02
Mind the true record
The dot-com unwind of 2000-2002 produced far wider spreads than anything since — so "highest on record" claims that start their history in the 2020s can mislead. This tool shows the full record back to 2001.
03
Implied leads, realized confirms
The implied spread (VXN-VIX) reprices instantly as options traders react; the realized spread lags but confirms whether tech actually delivered the bigger swings. Divergences between the two are informative.
04
Elevated spread ≠ immediate selloff
A high tech-vol premium has historically preceded weaker and less tech-dominant forward returns — not a guaranteed crash. Use it as regime context. It does not time entries or exits.
Common Issues & Solutions
Is this Goldman's 3-month spread?▾
It measures the same thing with free, daily CBOE data. Goldman uses 3-month at-the-money implied vol from raw options; we use the 30-day VXN and VIX indices. The two track each other closely and land on nearly the same number — and the CBOE version has clean history back to 2001.
Why does the current spread look less extreme than headlines say?▾
Headlines often start the history in 2021. Measured against the full record, the 2000-2002 tech unwind produced much larger spreads. The current reading can be a multi-year high and still well below the all-time record — both are true, and we show both.
What window is the realized vol?▾
Annualized standard deviation of daily log returns over the trailing 15 trading days (~3 weeks) for QQQ and SPY, matching the short-horizon realized measure. A longer window would be smoother but slower to react.
Why QQQ and SPY for realized, but VXN and VIX for implied?▾
VXN/VIX are the canonical Nasdaq-100 and S&P 500 implied-vol indices. QQQ and SPY are the most liquid trackers of those same indices, so their realized volatility is the natural realized counterpart.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the tech volatility spread?▾
It is the difference between the Nasdaq-100 and S&P 500 implied volatility — VXN minus VIX. A large positive spread means the options market is pricing far more risk into tech than into the broad market, expecting bigger and more violent moves for the Nasdaq.
How is it calculated?▾
The implied spread is CBOE's VXN (Nasdaq-100 30-day implied vol) minus VIX (S&P 500 30-day implied vol), from daily FRED data. The realized spread is the annualized 15-session realized volatility of QQQ minus that of SPY, computed from price history.
What does a high spread signal?▾
That investors are pricing in disproportionately large swings for technology stocks versus the rest of the market — often a sign of a shift in risk perception around the concentrated megacap-tech trade. Historically, elevated spreads have preceded weaker and less tech-dominant forward returns.
Is the current spread a record?▾
It depends on the window. The 2000-2002 dot-com unwind produced the widest spreads on record; a current reading can be the highest in several years while still below that all-time peak. The tool shows the full history since 2001 so you can judge for yourself.
Can I trade on it?▾
It is best used as regime context and relative-value input. On its own it is not a trade signal. Extreme readings flag stretched conditions and have historically mean-reverted, but the timing is unreliable — pair it with your other risk tools.
How often is it updated?▾
Daily after the US market close, same-day: CBOE index closes via our TradeStation feed for the implied spread (FRED mirrors the same official values with a one-day lag) and our own QQQ/SPY price history for the realized spread.
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Last updated: 2026-10-07