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Reference library / market gauges

The market has gauges. These are their operating manuals.

A number is easy to quote and hard to use. Each Manual opens the instrument, rebuilds the famous episodes from the underlying data, and marks the exact places where the signal can fool you.

Just need the word? The Concepts library defines the vocabulary — Manuals pick up where definitions end.

01
New / Valuation & leverage

The Buffett Indicator Manual

The official market-cap-to-GDP ratio beside a validated market-close estimate, the profit-share decomposition, historical benchmark quarters, and the honest finding that today's valuation band is still largely ungraded.

How expensive is the whole market — and what does today's reading actually mean?

Current readingSeptember 16, 2026
$6.75T
Fed total assets / weekly H.4.1
27%
below the $8.97T record
+72%
SPY through the largest QT ever

The reading is the orientation. The Manual is the argument, history and failure mode.

02

Start with the question

17 manuals
03

Breadth & participation

Is the index telling the truth?

Read beneath the cap-weighted headline: participation, internal momentum, divergence and the rare conditions that turn disagreement into risk.

M.04

Bullish Percent Index

Gauge

How many stocks are still on buy signals?

The P&F buy-signal count: construction, every sub-30 washout since 2010 graded — and the honest test showing the over-70 "overbought" folklore fails on sixteen years of data.

M.05

Zweig Breadth Thrust

Gauge

Did the stampede signal actually fire?

The exact state machine, every completed thrust and near-miss on our universe, the sourced 1945+ lore — and the two famous NYSE thrusts that peaked at 0.612 here, three thousandths short.

M.07

Market Breadth

Topic

Is the rally broad enough to trust?

The three-layer reading framework, six breadth gauges compared with their classic false positives, and every thrust since 2010.

M.08

Advance-Decline Line

Gauge

Are more stocks advancing than declining?

How the cumulative breadth line is built, the divergence record before every major top, and the cap-cohort decomposition that locates the weakness.

M.09

McClellan Oscillator

Gauge

Is breadth stretched, washed out, or accelerating?

The 19/39-EMA construction, the honest edge test, the deepest prints on record — and why we refuse to publish a Summation Index.

M.10

Hindenburg Omen

Gauge

Is internal conflict actually dangerous?

The recipe behind the scary name, its honest hit rate, and the famous fires and fizzles from our full 2010+ record.

04

Risk & regime

Is stress being priced — and where?

Volatility, credit, rates and options answer different versions of the same question. These Manuals show when they agree and when they do not.

M.02

Fed Balance Sheet

Gauge

Is the Fed adding or draining — and does it matter?

What the H.4.1 actually reports, every QE and QT era computed from the weekly record — and the honest test: the largest QT ever ran while SPY rose 74%.

M.03

Consumer Sentiment

Gauge

Do feelings match the receipts?

What Michigan actually asks, why eight of the ten lowest readings ever came since 2022 while spending grew, and the honest contrarian test — low sentiment tilted bullish, modestly.

M.11

VIX Term Structure

Gauge

Is volatility stress momentary or structural?

Contango, backwardation, why the average inversion was buyable and the long ones were not — plus the settlement quirk that once burned us.

M.12

Credit Spreads

Gauge

Is the bond market pricing trouble?

What a credit spread actually prices, every famous blowout computed from seven decades of data, and the 2007 lesson that calm is the warning.

M.13

Yield Curve

Gauge

Is policy restrictive enough to threaten the cycle?

Every inversion cycle since 1976 computed — depth, duration, recession leads — plus the un-inversion trap and the 2022–24 record breaker.

M.14

Put/Call Ratio

Gauge

Is options activity actually stretched?

What the ratio actually counts, why equity and index readings live on different scales, and the honest limits of a record that starts in 2025.

05

Valuation & leverage

06

Leadership & rotation

07

The Manual standard

01

Open the instrument

Define exactly what the gauge counts, how it is calculated and which data it leaves out.

02

Recompute the folklore

Test the famous episodes and forward outcomes against the maintained history — no inherited anecdotes.

03

Mark the failure mode

State where the gauge breaks, what it cannot time and which companion read keeps it honest.

Want the number rather than the owner's manual?