The market has gauges. These are their operating manuals.
A number is easy to quote and hard to use. Each Manual opens the instrument, rebuilds the famous episodes from the underlying data, and marks the exact places where the signal can fool you.
Just need the word? The Concepts library defines the vocabulary — Manuals pick up where definitions end.
Latest Manual
The Buffett Indicator Manual
The official market-cap-to-GDP ratio beside a validated market-close estimate, the profit-share decomposition, historical benchmark quarters, and the honest finding that today's valuation band is still largely ungraded.
How expensive is the whole market — and what does today's reading actually mean?
The reading is the orientation. The Manual is the argument, history and failure mode.
Start with the question
Breadth & participation
Is the index telling the truth?
Read beneath the cap-weighted headline: participation, internal momentum, divergence and the rare conditions that turn disagreement into risk.
Bullish Percent Index
GaugeHow many stocks are still on buy signals?
How many stocks are still on buy signals?
The P&F buy-signal count: construction, every sub-30 washout since 2010 graded — and the honest test showing the over-70 "overbought" folklore fails on sixteen years of data.
Zweig Breadth Thrust
GaugeDid the stampede signal actually fire?
Did the stampede signal actually fire?
The exact state machine, every completed thrust and near-miss on our universe, the sourced 1945+ lore — and the two famous NYSE thrusts that peaked at 0.612 here, three thousandths short.
Market Breadth
TopicIs the rally broad enough to trust?
Is the rally broad enough to trust?
The three-layer reading framework, six breadth gauges compared with their classic false positives, and every thrust since 2010.
Advance-Decline Line
GaugeAre more stocks advancing than declining?
Are more stocks advancing than declining?
How the cumulative breadth line is built, the divergence record before every major top, and the cap-cohort decomposition that locates the weakness.
McClellan Oscillator
GaugeIs breadth stretched, washed out, or accelerating?
Is breadth stretched, washed out, or accelerating?
The 19/39-EMA construction, the honest edge test, the deepest prints on record — and why we refuse to publish a Summation Index.
Hindenburg Omen
GaugeIs internal conflict actually dangerous?
Is internal conflict actually dangerous?
The recipe behind the scary name, its honest hit rate, and the famous fires and fizzles from our full 2010+ record.
Risk & regime
Is stress being priced — and where?
Volatility, credit, rates and options answer different versions of the same question. These Manuals show when they agree and when they do not.
Fed Balance Sheet
GaugeIs the Fed adding or draining — and does it matter?
Is the Fed adding or draining — and does it matter?
What the H.4.1 actually reports, every QE and QT era computed from the weekly record — and the honest test: the largest QT ever ran while SPY rose 74%.
Consumer Sentiment
GaugeDo feelings match the receipts?
Do feelings match the receipts?
What Michigan actually asks, why eight of the ten lowest readings ever came since 2022 while spending grew, and the honest contrarian test — low sentiment tilted bullish, modestly.
VIX Term Structure
GaugeIs volatility stress momentary or structural?
Is volatility stress momentary or structural?
Contango, backwardation, why the average inversion was buyable and the long ones were not — plus the settlement quirk that once burned us.
Credit Spreads
GaugeIs the bond market pricing trouble?
Is the bond market pricing trouble?
What a credit spread actually prices, every famous blowout computed from seven decades of data, and the 2007 lesson that calm is the warning.
Yield Curve
GaugeIs policy restrictive enough to threaten the cycle?
Is policy restrictive enough to threaten the cycle?
Every inversion cycle since 1976 computed — depth, duration, recession leads — plus the un-inversion trap and the 2022–24 record breaker.
Put/Call Ratio
GaugeIs options activity actually stretched?
Is options activity actually stretched?
What the ratio actually counts, why equity and index readings live on different scales, and the honest limits of a record that starts in 2025.
Valuation & leverage
What price is the market paying for the future?
Long-horizon valuation and borrowed money are slow gauges. Use them to frame the decade and the fragility — never to schedule next Tuesday.
Buffett Indicator
GaugeHow expensive is the whole market — and what does today's reading actually mean?
How expensive is the whole market — and what does today's reading actually mean?
The official market-cap-to-GDP ratio beside a validated market-close estimate, the profit-share decomposition, historical benchmark quarters, and the honest finding that today's valuation band is still largely ungraded.
M2 Money Supply
GaugeHow much money is there — and does it predict anything?
How much money is there — and does it predict anything?
What the Fed counts and excludes, the 40% pandemic surge, the only contraction in the 1959+ record, and the honest two-era test of whether M2 growth predicts inflation.
Shiller CAPE
GaugeWhat has this valuation implied for the next decade?
What has this valuation implied for the next decade?
What the Shiller PE measures, forward 10-year real returns by starting valuation, every episode above 30 since 1881 — and the rate-adjusted rebuttal in Shiller's own excess CAPE yield.
Margin Debt
GaugeIs leverage rising faster than the market?
Is leverage rising faster than the market?
What FINRA actually counts, the three famous leverage peaks, and why the level alone is only a headline.
Leadership & rotation
Who is carrying the market?
Leadership is a map of the cycle. Start here when defensives and cyclicals begin telling different stories.
The Manual standard
Open the instrument
Define exactly what the gauge counts, how it is calculated and which data it leaves out.
Recompute the folklore
Test the famous episodes and forward outcomes against the maintained history — no inherited anecdotes.
Mark the failure mode
State where the gauge breaks, what it cannot time and which companion read keeps it honest.
Want the number rather than the owner's manual?