Buffett Indicator (Market Cap to GDP)
The Buffett Indicator divides the market value of all publicly traded US corporate equities (Federal Reserve Z.1) by nominal GDP. Warren Buffett called the ratio "probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment" in 2001. Most published versions use the discontinued Wilshire 5000; this one uses the Z.1 public-equities series directly — the same concept, from the primary source, quarterly back to the early 1950s.
Latest reading
As of January 2026, Buffett Indicator (Public equity market value / GDP %) stands at 250% — down from 265% the prior reading. The long-run median is around 84%; the dot-com peak hit 172%, and the ratio first crossed 200% in 2021. Readings far above prior peaks say expectations embedded in prices are historically extreme relative to the economy's output. Two honest caveats: US-listed companies earn far more abroad than in past decades (inflating the numerator relative to domestic GDP), and structurally lower interest rates support higher steady-state valuations. Compare it with the market-cap-to-profits multiple, which adjusts for the profit boom and paints a less extreme picture. Series history runs from 1947 to present.
Public equity market value / GDP %
- Vs full history
- 25099th pctile
- Equity value
- $79.67T
- Nominal GDP
- $31.87T
Next release: Sep 10, 2026
Full history
Methodology & data
Buffett Indicator is sourced from Fed/BEA via the Federal Reserve's FRED service (Fed Z.1 + BEA via FRED (BOGZ1LM883164115Q ÷ GDP), quarterly, 1950s+). We pull the complete history, chart it on a quarterly basis, overlay SPY for context, and generate a dated plain-English reading from the latest release — with no smoothing or adjustment beyond what the chart legend states.
Every reading is stamped with its release date, last updated 2026-07-12. Maintained and reviewed by Yuriy Matso; see our methodology for the standards every series on the site is held to.
Frequently asked questions
What is the Buffett Indicator (Market Cap to GDP)?
The Buffett Indicator divides the market value of all publicly traded US corporate equities (Federal Reserve Z.1) by nominal GDP. Warren Buffett called the ratio "probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment" in 2001. Most published versions use the discontinued Wilshire 5000; this one uses the Z.1 public-equities series directly — the same concept, from the primary source, quarterly back to the early 1950s.
How do you read Buffett Indicator?
The long-run median is around 84%; the dot-com peak hit 172%, and the ratio first crossed 200% in 2021. Readings far above prior peaks say expectations embedded in prices are historically extreme relative to the economy's output. Two honest caveats: US-listed companies earn far more abroad than in past decades (inflating the numerator relative to domestic GDP), and structurally lower interest rates support higher steady-state valuations. Compare it with the market-cap-to-profits multiple, which adjusts for the profit boom and paints a less extreme picture.
Where does the Buffett Indicator data come from?
Fed Z.1 + BEA via FRED (BOGZ1LM883164115Q ÷ GDP), quarterly, 1950s+. We chart the full history and publish a dated, plain-English reading with every release; the raw series is downloadable as CSV at /data/indicators/buffett-indicator.csv.
How often is Buffett Indicator updated?
Buffett Indicator is a quarterly series from Fed/BEA, refreshed here as soon as a new release posts to FRED.