Buffett Indicator (Market Cap to GDP)
US public-equity market value divided by annualized nominal GDP — an economy-wide valuation gauge with no near-term timing value.
Official end-of-quarter public-equity value divided by annualized nominal GDP. The level is a new official record, above every pre-2020 cycle peak.
The official ratio divides by $32.49T, the Q2 2026 GDP on record when the Z.1 posted; BEA has since revised it to $32.56T (quarter first published Jul 30, 2026).
- Long-run median
- 85%
- Dot-com peak
- 172%
- Official record
- 288% · Q2 2026
- Rolling 20Y rank
- 100th pctile
Estimate validation: VTI scaling reproduced 66 subsequent official quarter-end market values with a median absolute error of 0.32% (90th percentile 0.91%). It remains an estimate, not a Fed print. Next Z.1 release: Dec 10, 2026.
Bottom line
The official Q2 2026 Buffett Indicator is 288%, released Sep 11, 2026 — the 100.0th percentile of the 1947+ record and a new official high. It rose 38.1 points last quarter as public-equity value changed +17.5% while nominal GDP changed +1.9%. A separate market-close estimate stands at 297% as of Oct 9, 2026, dividing by BEA's latest Q2 2026 GDP estimate ($32.56T annual rate, revised from the $32.49T the official ratio uses). High readings describe long-horizon starting valuations. They do not time a near-term crash.
Sources, methodology & freshnessFed Z.1 + BEA via FRED (BOGZ1LM883164115Q ÷ GDP); annual 1947–1951, quarterly from 1952 · Quarterly, with every releaseData as of 2026-04-01 · Open ↓Close ↑
Full history
What changed last quarter
$79.67T → $93.61T
$31.87T → $32.49T
250% → 288% (+15.2%)
The official ratio rose because the quarter-end market value grew faster (+17.5%) than the economy's annualized dollar output (+1.9%). The split between the two inputs says more than the direction arrow alone, and it is why the official reading can move sharply even though GDP changes slowly.
Why 288% is not the same valuation as 2000
A lower market-cap/profits multiple than 2000, multiplied by a much larger profit share of GDP.
The market was more expensive against profits, but profits captured barely half today's share of GDP.
Market value relative to profits
After-tax profits as a share of GDP
Historical benchmarks, on comparable data
Fixed labels such as “overvalued above 130%” hide how the denominator changed. The comparison below keeps the same Fed public-equity numerator across every quarter, then shows the profits cross-check and what followed after the number was actually released.
Late-1960s peak
Q4 1968- Cap / GDP
- 102%
- Cap / profits
- 15.8×
- Profits / GDP
- 6.5%
- Next 5Y real / yr
- -4.1%
- Worst DD, next 3Y
- -30%
Dot-com peak
Q1 2000- Cap / GDP
- 172%
- Cap / profits
- 30.5×
- Profits / GDP
- 5.6%
- Next 5Y real / yr
- -4.5%
- Worst DD, next 3Y
- -45%
2007 peak
Q2 2007- Cap / GDP
- 131%
- Cap / profits
- 12.9×
- Profits / GDP
- 10.2%
- Next 5Y real / yr
- -1.2%
- Worst DD, next 3Y
- -50%
2021–22 peak
Q4 2021- Cap / GDP
- 240%
- Cap / profits
- 20.1×
- Profits / GDP
- 11.9%
- Next 5Y real / yr
- Ungraded
- Worst DD, next 3Y
- -17%
Official record
Q2 2026- Cap / GDP
- 288%
- Cap / profits
- 21.8×
- Profits / GDP
- 13.2%
- Next 5Y real / yr
- Ungraded
- Worst DD, next 3Y
- Ungraded
Latest official
Q2 2026- Cap / GDP
- 288%
- Cap / profits
- 21.8×
- Profits / GDP
- 13.2%
- Next 5Y real / yr
- Ungraded
- Worst DD, next 3Y
- Ungraded
Rolling 20-year percentile
A structural-drift check: each quarter is ranked only against the preceding 20 years. It does not declare a fair value; it asks whether the reading is extreme even inside its own modern regime.
What happened after each starting valuation
Each quarter is graded from the first monthly S&P observation after its initial release date, using inflation-adjusted total return with dividends reinvested. Values are median annualized returns. The sample count and number of distinct eras appear under every result so overlapping quarters cannot masquerade as independent evidence.
Under 70%
107 starts70–99%
86 starts100–129%
45 starts130–169%
38 starts170% and above
27 startsData-vintage note: the Fed and BEA revise both sides of the ratio, and this series does not restate them: each quarter keeps the equity value and GDP on record when it entered the dataset (the history before 2026 carries the vintage of the initial download). The market-close estimate divides by BEA's latest GDP vintage instead, which is why its Q2 2026 denominator ($32.56T) differs from the official row's ($32.49T). The outcome study starts each return window with the first monthly observation after publication. This is release-aware analysis on recorded values, not a point-in-time vintage database.
Methodology & data
Buffett Indicator is sourced from Fed/BEA via the Federal Reserve's FRED service (Fed Z.1 + BEA via FRED (BOGZ1LM883164115Q ÷ GDP); annual 1947–1951, quarterly from 1952). We pull the complete history, chart it on a quarterly basis, overlay SPY for context, and generate a dated plain-English reading from the latest release — with no smoothing or adjustment beyond what the chart legend states.
Every reading is stamped with its release date. Latest observation 2026-04-01; site refreshed 2026-10-09. Maintained and reviewed by Yuriy Matso; see our methodology for the standards every series on the site is held to.
The Manual — Buffett Indicator
The official reading is 288% for Q2 2026, while the market-close estimate is 297%. The Manual explains the official-versus-estimated distinction, decomposes the record into profits and profit share, grades the historical valuation bands, and shows why the current 170%+ regime has only 1 completed 10-year observation from 1 era.
Read The Buffett Indicator Manual →Frequently asked questions
What is the Buffett Indicator (Market Cap to GDP)?
The Buffett Indicator divides the market value of all publicly traded US corporate equities (Federal Reserve Z.1) by annualized nominal GDP. Warren Buffett called the ratio "probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment" in 2001. Most published versions use a Wilshire-based estimate; this page uses the Fed's public-equities series directly — annual observations for 1947–1951 and quarterly observations from 1952 onward.
How do you read Buffett Indicator?
The long-run median is 85%; the dot-com peak reached 172%, and the ratio first crossed 200% on a released-data basis in 2021. High readings describe expensive long-horizon starting valuations. They set no crash date. The main structural caveats are foreign earnings outside domestic GDP, a much larger corporate-profit share of GDP, the market's shift toward high-margin businesses, and the interest-rate backdrop. The market-cap-to-profits multiple and Shiller excess CAPE yield are the necessary cross-checks.
Where does the Buffett Indicator data come from?
Fed Z.1 + BEA via FRED (BOGZ1LM883164115Q ÷ GDP); annual 1947–1951, quarterly from 1952. We chart the full history and publish a dated, plain-English reading with every release; the raw series is downloadable as CSV at /data/indicators/buffett-indicator.csv.
How often is Buffett Indicator updated?
Buffett Indicator is a quarterly series from Fed/BEA, refreshed here as soon as a new release posts to FRED. Between Z.1 releases, a market-close estimate (the official equity value scaled by VTI, divided by the latest GDP) is recomputed every trading day and labeled as an estimate.
Official end-of-quarter public-equity value divided by annualized nominal GDP. The level is a new official record, above every pre-2020 cycle peak.
The official ratio divides by $32.49T, the Q2 2026 GDP on record when the Z.1 posted; BEA has since revised it to $32.56T (quarter first published Jul 30, 2026).
- Long-run median
- 85%
- Dot-com peak
- 172%
- Official record
- 288% · Q2 2026
- Rolling 20Y rank
- 100th pctile
Estimate validation: VTI scaling reproduced 66 subsequent official quarter-end market values with a median absolute error of 0.32% (90th percentile 0.91%). It remains an estimate, not a Fed print. Next Z.1 release: Dec 10, 2026.