Nasdaq Advance-Decline Issues: Intraday Breadth & Extreme Prints
Nasdaq advancing minus declining issues — live breadth — summarized per session since 2007: the day's participation bias, its ±2000 extreme prints, and an era-proof five-state read with forward QQQ base rates. The finding: breadth washouts led; unlike the TICK, broad up-days were not a reliable fade.
Today's reading
As of the October 7, 2026 close, Nasdaq breadth read Bearish tilt: net advancers averaged -1893 through the session (z -1.5 vs the trailing year), with 0 surge prints (+2000) and 23 washout prints (−2000). Session extremes: -1239 net advancers at best, -2315 at worst. Since 2008, bearish tilt sessions preceded +1.33% average QQQ returns over the next 21 sessions vs +1.49% for all sessions.
Sources, methodology & freshnessNasdaq advance-decline issues difference ($ADQD) 5-minute bars from TradeStation, regular session only (2007–present); QQQ closes for the forward-return studies · Daily after US market close (~1pm PT)Data as of 2026-10-07 · Open ↓Close ↑
Since 2008, bearish tilt sessions preceded +1.33% avg QQQ returns over the next 21 sessions (66% positive) vs +1.49% baseline — 1,101 cases. That is historical context. It does not forecast the next move.
Intraday tape — the last sessions, 5-minute
The raw tape behind the daily aggregates: every regular-hours 5-minute bar of $ADQD, plus the session-cumulative running total day traders watch for one-sided program days. Pick how many sessions to show; the data refreshes with the daily update after each close.
Session bias vs its own era
Each session's bias (blue) against its rolling one-year mean and ±1.5σ band (gray). The band IS the era adjustment — what counts as a washout or euphoric session moves with the market's structure, which is why raw TICK levels from different decades can't be compared directly.
Cumulative TICK — trend & divergence
The running sum of each session's bias, rebased to zero at the left edge of the window. The trend is the read: a rising line confirms the tape beneath a rally; price making new highs while cumulative TICK makes lower highs means fewer stocks are ticking along — the classic divergence warning. On the Max window the line partly reflects listing-count and structure changes across two decades of Nasdaq breadth. Use the shorter windows for the trading read.
What followed each state — full history
Forward QQQ returns from every session in each z-score state since 2008. Washout sessions preceded the best average returns (+2.1% over the next 21 sessions vs +1.5% baseline) — breadth capitulation marked exhaustion. Note the euphoric fade familiar from the TICK dashboards is much weaker here: broad participation strength was closer to neutral than bearish.
| State | % of days | Next 5 sessions | Next 10 sessions | Next 21 sessions | N |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washout | 8% | +0.60% · 61%↑ | +1.16% · 67%↑ | +2.10% · 70%↑ | 367 |
| Bearish tiltnow | 24% | +0.36% · 59%↑ | +0.61% · 61%↑ | +1.33% · 66%↑ | 1,101 |
| Balanced | 35% | +0.30% · 60%↑ | +0.69% · 63%↑ | +1.43% · 68%↑ | 1,588 |
| Bullish tilt | 26% | +0.35% · 61%↑ | +0.67% · 64%↑ | +1.47% · 67%↑ | 1,196 |
| Euphoric | 7% | +0.29% · 59%↑ | +0.68% · 64%↑ | +1.65% · 69%↑ | 325 |
| All sessions (baseline) | 100% | +0.35% · 60%↑ | +0.70% · 63%↑ | +1.49% · 67%↑ | 4,577 |
Forward returns on QQQ closes. States use the rolling one-year z-score of the session bias, so they are era-comparable. Overlapping windows — descriptive tendencies, not signals.
Extreme-print days — modern era (2010+)
Days when ±2000 net-issue prints actually hit the tape, 2010+ — and unlike the Nasdaq TICK, these buckets have real samples (hundreds of cases). Washout-print days ran roughly 1.7x the baseline over the following week; surge-print days tracked close to baseline.
| State | % of days | Next 5 sessions | Next 10 sessions | Next 21 sessions | N |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washout day (5+ −2000 prints) | 7% | +0.64% · 62%↑ | +1.25% · 63%↑ | +2.15% · 66%↑ | 297 |
| Heavy washout (10+ −2000 prints) | 6% | +0.68% · 62%↑ | +1.16% · 63%↑ | +1.97% · 66%↑ | 267 |
| Surge day (5+ +2000 prints) | 5% | +0.42% · 59%↑ | +0.74% · 60%↑ | +2.15% · 67%↑ | 192 |
| No extreme prints | 86% | +0.35% · 60%↑ | +0.70% · 64%↑ | +1.46% · 67%↑ | 3,623 |
| All 2010+ sessions (baseline) | 100% | +0.37% · 60%↑ | +0.74% · 63%↑ | +1.55% · 67%↑ | 4,229 |
±2000 counts are 5-minute bars whose high/low reached the threshold. Restricted to 2010+ where the print-frequency regime is stable. Overlapping windows — base rates, not signals.
Since 2008, bearish tilt sessions preceded +1.33% avg QQQ returns over the next 21 sessions (66% positive) vs +1.49% baseline — 1,101 cases. That is historical context. It does not forecast the next move.
How Nasdaq A/D Issues Works
- 1What the A/D issues difference isThe number of Nasdaq stocks trading above their prior close minus those below, printed through the session — live breadth. A reading of +1500 means fifteen hundred more Nasdaq issues are up than down at that moment; the sign of the tape's participation, not its price.
- 2Aggregate each sessionFrom 5-minute $ADQD bars (2007–present) we compute each session's BIAS — the average net-advancers reading, i.e. how one-sided participation was all day — and its EXTREME PRINTS: bars reaching +2000 (surge prints) or −2000 (washout prints), roughly the 5% tails of the modern distribution.
- 3Make it comparable across timeListing counts and market structure shift what a "normal" net-advancers reading is, so the state uses a rolling 252-session z-score of the bias — today versus the trailing year of itself.
- 4Classify the state — and attach base ratesFive states by z: Washout (≤ −1.5), Bearish tilt, Balanced, Bullish tilt, Euphoric (≥ +1.5). For each, what QQQ actually did over the following 5, 10 and 21 sessions since 2008. The washout edge is the finding: breadth capitulation preceded above-baseline returns.