1 week (5 sessions)
- Median after inversion
- +0.71%
- Median, all starting days
- +0.41%
- Positive after inversion
- 63%
80 completed, non-overlapping trigger windows · 4,221 baseline starts
Volatility riskUpdated daily after close · as of 2026-10-20
VIX Term Structure: VIX/VIX3M Backwardation & Contango Tracker
Today's regime, the IVTS ratio, every backwardation episode since 2010 and the VIX futures curve
The VIX/VIX3M ratio (IVTS) tracks the shape of the implied-volatility curve across 16 years of daily history. Above 1.0 the curve is in backwardation — near-term stress and hedging demand; below it, contango, the calm-market default. Every backwardation episode is catalogued below with its SPY outcome, followed by the monthly VIX futures curve from Cboe's daily settlements. Definitions live on the concept pages for contango and backwardation.
VIX / VIX3M indexes2026-10-20 · close
CONTANGO
Day 136 in regime·16-yr backwardation rate 7.6%
IVTS
0.9115
-0.0885 from 1.0
VIX
17.31
30-day
VIX3M
18.99
3-month
VIX as of market close 2026-10-20: spot VIX 17.31, VIX3M 18.99, IVTS 0.9115. Term structure is in CONTANGO (day 136).
Today's reading
As of market close on October 20, 2026, the VIX term structure is in contango, the normal state. VIX closed at 17.31 and VIX3M at 18.99, putting the IVTS ratio at 0.9115 (backwardation begins above 1.0000). This is day 136 of the current contango regime. The ratio fell from 0.9408 the prior session. The most recent backwardation episode ran 2026-04-07 to 2026-04-07 (1 trading day, peak IVTS 1.0082, SPY +0.04% from the prior close to the episode's last close). Since 2010, backwardation has occurred on 7.6% of trading days across 103 episodes, each a run of consecutive closes with the VIX/VIX3M ratio above 1.0.
Sources, methodology & freshnessCboe daily VX futures settlements (monthly contracts) and daily VIX and VIX3M index closes from our price database · Daily after the close: futures at Cboe's official settlement; index closes after the 4:15 PM ET settle, the newest provisional until verified the next sessionData as of 2026-10-20 · Open ↓Close ↑
Source
Cboe daily VX futures settlements (monthly contracts) and daily VIX and VIX3M index closes from our price database
Methodology
IVTS = VIX / VIX3M; backwardation when ratio > 1.0; an episode is a run of consecutive closes above 1.0, and its SPY return runs from the close before its first day to its last close
Updates
Daily after the close: futures at Cboe's official settlement; index closes after the 4:15 PM ET settle, the newest provisional until verified the next sessionData as of 2026-10-20
Maintained & reviewed by Yuriy Matso — methodology shown on the page.
Range
IVTS Signal (VIX / VIX3M)
IVTS Ratio
SPY Price
Backwardation (1.0)
VIX vs VIX3M
VIX (30-day)
VIX3M (3-month)
Backwardation (VIX > VIX3M)
SPY Price with Backwardation Regimes
SPY Price
Backwardation Period
IVTS Ratio Distribution
Contango (ratio < 1.0)
Backwardation (ratio > 1.0)
Backwardation Episodes (full history)
Total Episodes
103
Backwardation Days
321
% of Time
7.6%
Avg Duration
3.1 days
Median Duration
2 days
| Start | End | Duration | Max IVTS | SPY Prior Close | SPY End | SPY Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-07 | 2026-04-07 | 1d | 1.0082 | $658.93 | $659.22 | +0.04% |
| 2026-03-26 | 2026-03-30 | 3d | 1.0608 | $656.82 | $631.97 | -3.78% |
| 2026-03-23 | 2026-03-24 | 2d | 1.0147 | $648.57 | $653.18 | +0.71% |
| 2026-03-12 | 2026-03-12 | 1d | 1.0126 | $676.33 | $666.06 | -1.52% |
| 2026-03-06 | 2026-03-09 | 2d | 1.0700 | $681.31 | $678.27 | -0.45% |
| 2026-03-03 | 2026-03-03 | 1d | 1.0013 | $686.38 | $680.33 | -0.88% |
| 2025-11-20 | 2025-11-20 | 1d | 1.0256 | $662.63 | $652.53 | -1.52% |
| 2025-11-18 | 2025-11-18 | 1d | 1.0061 | $665.67 | $660.08 | -0.84% |
| 2025-10-16 | 2025-10-16 | 1d | 1.0177 | $665.17 | $660.64 | -0.68% |
| 2025-04-02 | 2025-04-24 | 16d | 1.2739 | $560.97 | $546.69 | -2.55% |
| 2025-03-31 | 2025-03-31 | 1d | 1.0141 | $555.66 | $559.39 | +0.67% |
| 2025-03-03 | 2025-03-13 | 9d | 1.0832 | $594.18 | $551.42 | -7.20% |
| 2024-12-18 | 2024-12-18 | 1d | 1.1394 | $604.29 | $586.28 | -2.98% |
| 2024-11-04 | 2024-11-05 | 2d | 1.0190 | $571.04 | $576.70 | +0.99% |
| 2024-10-31 | 2024-10-31 | 1d | 1.0230 | $580.01 | $568.64 | -1.96% |
| 2024-10-07 | 2024-10-07 | 1d | 1.0022 | $572.98 | $567.80 | -0.90% |
| 2024-08-02 | 2024-08-07 | 4d | 1.1442 | $543.01 | $518.66 | -4.48% |
| 2022-10-11 | 2022-10-13 | 3d | 1.0133 | $360.02 | $365.97 | +1.65% |
| 2022-09-29 | 2022-09-29 | 1d | 1.0032 | $370.53 | $362.79 | -2.09% |
| 2022-09-26 | 2022-09-27 | 2d | 1.0154 | $367.95 | $363.38 | -1.24% |
| 2022-04-29 | 2022-04-29 | 1d | 1.0066 | $427.81 | $412.00 | -3.70% |
| 2022-04-26 | 2022-04-26 | 1d | 1.0115 | $428.51 | $416.10 | -2.90% |
| 2022-03-07 | 2022-03-08 | 2d | 1.0199 | $432.17 | $416.25 | -3.68% |
| 2022-02-28 | 2022-03-01 | 2d | 1.0224 | $437.75 | $429.98 | -1.77% |
| 2022-02-23 | 2022-02-24 | 2d | 1.0090 | $429.57 | $428.30 | -0.30% |
| 2022-01-26 | 2022-01-26 | 1d | 1.0003 | $434.47 | $433.38 | -0.25% |
| 2021-12-01 | 2021-12-01 | 1d | 1.0107 | $455.56 | $450.50 | -1.11% |
| 2021-01-27 | 2021-01-27 | 1d | 1.0414 | $383.79 | $374.41 | -2.44% |
| 2020-10-26 | 2020-11-03 | 7d | 1.0670 | $345.78 | $336.03 | -2.82% |
| 2020-06-11 | 2020-06-11 | 1d | 1.0089 | $319.00 | $300.61 | -5.76% |
| 2020-02-24 | 2020-04-23 | 43d | 1.3437 | $333.48 | $279.08 | -16.31% |
| 2020-01-31 | 2020-01-31 | 1d | 1.0113 | $327.68 | $321.73 | -1.82% |
| 2020-01-27 | 2020-01-27 | 1d | 1.0039 | $328.77 | $323.50 | -1.60% |
| 2019-08-14 | 2019-08-15 | 2d | 1.0376 | $292.55 | $284.65 | -2.70% |
| 2019-08-12 | 2019-08-12 | 1d | 1.0288 | $291.62 | $288.12 | -1.20% |
| 2019-08-05 | 2019-08-06 | 2d | 1.1228 | $292.62 | $287.80 | -1.65% |
| 2019-06-03 | 2019-06-03 | 1d | 1.0048 | $275.27 | $274.57 | -0.25% |
| 2019-05-13 | 2019-05-13 | 1d | 1.0384 | $288.10 | $280.86 | -2.51% |
| 2019-05-07 | 2019-05-09 | 3d | 1.0358 | $292.82 | $286.66 | -2.10% |
| 2019-01-22 | 2019-01-22 | 1d | 1.0053 | $266.46 | $262.86 | -1.35% |
| 2018-12-17 | 2019-01-03 | 12d | 1.2507 | $260.47 | $244.21 | -6.24% |
| 2018-12-06 | 2018-12-11 | 4d | 1.0352 | $270.25 | $264.13 | -2.26% |
| 2018-11-20 | 2018-11-20 | 1d | 1.0094 | $269.10 | $264.12 | -1.85% |
| 2018-11-14 | 2018-11-14 | 1d | 1.0014 | $272.06 | $270.20 | -0.68% |
| 2018-11-12 | 2018-11-12 | 1d | 1.0109 | $277.76 | $272.57 | -1.87% |
| 2018-11-06 | 2018-11-06 | 1d | 1.0169 | $273.39 | $275.12 | +0.63% |
| 2018-10-23 | 2018-10-31 | 7d | 1.1154 | $275.01 | $270.63 | -1.59% |
| 2018-10-18 | 2018-10-19 | 2d | 1.0101 | $280.45 | $276.25 | -1.50% |
| 2018-10-10 | 2018-10-15 | 4d | 1.1586 | $287.40 | $274.40 | -4.52% |
| 2018-04-06 | 2018-04-10 | 3d | 1.0254 | $265.64 | $265.15 | -0.18% |
| 2018-04-02 | 2018-04-03 | 2d | 1.0465 | $263.15 | $260.77 | -0.90% |
| 2018-03-22 | 2018-03-28 | 5d | 1.0913 | $270.43 | $259.83 | -3.92% |
| 2018-03-01 | 2018-03-01 | 1d | 1.0490 | $271.65 | $267.70 | -1.45% |
| 2018-02-15 | 2018-02-20 | 3d | 1.0295 | $269.59 | $271.40 | +0.67% |
| 2018-02-02 | 2018-02-13 | 8d | 1.3267 | $281.58 | $266.00 | -5.53% |
| 2017-04-12 | 2017-04-13 | 2d | 1.0321 | $235.06 | $232.51 | -1.08% |
| 2016-11-02 | 2016-11-08 | 5d | 1.0667 | $211.01 | $214.11 | +1.47% |
| 2016-06-24 | 2016-06-27 | 2d | 1.0765 | $210.81 | $199.60 | -5.32% |
| 2016-06-22 | 2016-06-22 | 1d | 1.0043 | $208.44 | $208.10 | -0.16% |
| 2016-02-11 | 2016-02-11 | 1d | 1.0152 | $185.27 | $182.86 | -1.30% |
| 2016-02-08 | 2016-02-08 | 1d | 1.0008 | $187.95 | $185.42 | -1.35% |
| 2016-01-13 | 2016-01-15 | 3d | 1.0178 | $193.66 | $187.81 | -3.02% |
| 2016-01-07 | 2016-01-08 | 2d | 1.0297 | $198.82 | $191.92 | -3.47% |
| 2015-12-11 | 2015-12-11 | 1d | 1.0004 | $205.87 | $201.88 | -1.94% |
| 2015-09-28 | 2015-09-29 | 2d | 1.0474 | $192.85 | $188.12 | -2.45% |
| 2015-09-24 | 2015-09-24 | 1d | 1.0004 | $193.60 | $192.90 | -0.36% |
| 2015-09-14 | 2015-09-14 | 1d | 1.0232 | $196.74 | $196.01 | -0.37% |
| 2015-08-20 | 2015-09-01 | 9d | 1.3083 | $208.32 | $191.77 | -7.94% |
| 2015-07-08 | 2015-07-09 | 2d | 1.0213 | $208.02 | $204.90 | -1.50% |
| 2015-06-29 | 2015-06-29 | 1d | 1.0069 | $209.82 | $205.42 | -2.10% |
| 2015-01-14 | 2015-01-15 | 2d | 1.0263 | $202.08 | $199.02 | -1.51% |
| 2014-12-16 | 2014-12-16 | 1d | 1.0208 | $199.51 | $197.91 | -0.80% |
| 2014-12-12 | 2014-12-12 | 1d | 1.0038 | $204.19 | $200.89 | -1.62% |
| 2014-10-09 | 2014-10-17 | 7d | 1.1139 | $196.64 | $188.47 | -4.15% |
| 2014-07-31 | 2014-08-01 | 2d | 1.0348 | $196.98 | $192.50 | -2.27% |
| 2014-04-11 | 2014-04-11 | 1d | 1.0143 | $183.16 | $181.51 | -0.90% |
| 2014-01-31 | 2014-02-05 | 4d | 1.0645 | $179.23 | $175.17 | -2.27% |
| 2014-01-29 | 2014-01-29 | 1d | 1.0064 | $179.07 | $177.35 | -0.96% |
| 2014-01-24 | 2014-01-27 | 2d | 1.0425 | $182.79 | $178.01 | -2.62% |
| 2013-10-15 | 2013-10-15 | 1d | 1.0136 | $170.94 | $169.70 | -0.73% |
| 2013-10-07 | 2013-10-09 | 3d | 1.0252 | $168.89 | $165.60 | -1.95% |
| 2013-06-20 | 2013-06-20 | 1d | 1.0074 | $163.45 | $159.40 | -2.48% |
| 2013-04-18 | 2013-04-18 | 1d | 1.0023 | $155.11 | $154.14 | -0.63% |
| 2013-04-15 | 2013-04-15 | 1d | 1.0141 | $158.80 | $155.12 | -2.32% |
| 2013-02-25 | 2013-02-25 | 1d | 1.0585 | $151.89 | $149.00 | -1.90% |
| 2012-12-28 | 2012-12-28 | 1d | 1.0384 | $141.56 | $140.03 | -1.08% |
| 2011-11-09 | 2011-11-09 | 1d | 1.0189 | $127.88 | $123.16 | -3.69% |
| 2011-11-01 | 2011-11-01 | 1d | 1.0220 | $125.50 | $122.00 | -2.79% |
| 2011-10-19 | 2011-10-20 | 2d | 1.0170 | $122.58 | $121.66 | -0.75% |
| 2011-09-21 | 2011-10-04 | 10d | 1.0562 | $120.17 | $112.34 | -6.52% |
| 2011-09-02 | 2011-09-13 | 7d | 1.0513 | $120.94 | $117.74 | -2.65% |
| 2011-07-27 | 2011-08-30 | 25d | 1.2598 | $133.33 | $121.68 | -8.74% |
| 2011-06-16 | 2011-06-16 | 1d | 1.0053 | $127.02 | $127.30 | +0.22% |
| 2011-03-15 | 2011-03-18 | 4d | 1.0925 | $130.05 | $127.76 | -1.76% |
| 2010-11-26 | 2010-11-26 | 1d | 1.0188 | $120.20 | $118.80 | -1.16% |
| 2010-06-04 | 2010-06-08 | 3d | 1.0360 | $110.71 | $106.62 | -3.69% |
| 2010-05-28 | 2010-06-01 | 2d | 1.0447 | $110.76 | $107.53 | -2.92% |
| 2010-05-26 | 2010-05-26 | 1d | 1.0315 | $107.82 | $107.17 | -0.60% |
| 2010-05-14 | 2010-05-24 | 7d | 1.1215 | $115.99 | $107.71 | -7.14% |
| 2010-05-06 | 2010-05-07 | 2d | 1.2438 | $116.82 | $111.26 | -4.76% |
| 2010-04-27 | 2010-04-27 | 1d | 1.0040 | $121.35 | $118.48 | -2.37% |
| 2010-02-04 | 2010-02-08 | 3d | 1.0042 | $109.83 | $105.89 | -3.59% |
| 2010-01-22 | 2010-01-25 | 2d | 1.0388 | $111.70 | $109.77 | -1.73% |
What happened after VIX/VIX3M inversions?
SPY price returns after the first close with VIX/VIX3M above 1.0, compared with all eligible starting days in the same dataset. This study concerns the two volatility indexes; it does not test the VX futures curve.
1 month (21 sessions)
- Median after inversion
- +2.54%
- Median, all starting days
- +1.58%
- Positive after inversion
- 74%
54 completed, non-overlapping trigger windows · 4,205 baseline starts
3 months (63 sessions)
- Median after inversion
- +5.11%
- Median, all starting days
- +3.90%
- Positive after inversion
- 74%
35 completed, non-overlapping trigger windows · 4,163 baseline starts
Data through 2026-10-20. Returns start at the trigger-day close and exclude dividends. For each horizon, the earliest trigger is kept and later triggers are skipped until its return window ends; unfinished windows are excluded. The baseline uses all completed starts, which overlap. These comparisons describe history; they are no independent test of a trading strategy and no forecast.
The episode table below measures returns during each inversion, starting at the prior close. Read the VIX term structure guide → · Download underlying history
Rolling % of Days in Backwardation
30-day
60-day
90-day
VIX Futures Curve
Cboe official daily settlements · Oct 20, 2026 · monthly VX contracts
At the 2026-10-20 Cboe daily settlement, the front two monthly VIX futures were in contango. VX/V6 (2026-10-21) settled at 17.2209; VX/X6 (2026-11-18) at 18.4881. The second month was 7.36% above the first. The full monthly curve was upward sloping.
Settlement of each monthly VX contract, in volatility points, by expiration date. The dashed line is the previous session's settlement for the same expiration.
2026-10-20 settlement
2026-10-19 settlement
17.2209Previous: 18.1582 · Change: −0.9373
All 9 monthly contracts and settlement changes
VX/V6Oct 21, 2026
- Settlement
- 17.2209
- Previous
- 18.1582
- Change
- −0.9373
VX/X6Nov 18, 2026
- Settlement
- 18.4881
- Previous
- 18.5996
- Change
- −0.1115
VX/Z6Dec 16, 2026
- Settlement
- 18.6965
- Previous
- 18.7362
- Change
- −0.0397
VX/F7Jan 20, 2027
- Settlement
- 19.6255
- Previous
- 19.5158
- Change
- +0.1097
VX/G7Feb 17, 2027
- Settlement
- 20.0450
- Previous
- 19.9041
- Change
- +0.1409
VX/H7Mar 17, 2027
- Settlement
- 20.1516
- Previous
- 20.1343
- Change
- +0.0173
VX/J7Apr 21, 2027
- Settlement
- 20.5500
- Previous
- 20.4913
- Change
- +0.0587
VX/K7May 18, 2027
- Settlement
- 20.7250
- Previous
- 20.5671
- Change
- +0.1579
VX/M7Jun 16, 2027
- Settlement
- 20.8750
- Previous
- 20.8000
- Change
- +0.0750
Front spread = second-month settlement ÷ first-month settlement − 1, expressed as a percentage. Positive means front-month contango; negative means backwardation. The rest of the curve can have a different shape. Comparison prices use the same expiration, even when the front contract rolls.
Settlements update after the trading session; these are not live quotes. Weekly VX and mini VXM contracts are excluded. Source: Cboe daily futures settlements. Download curve JSON.
01
Summary statistics across all dimensions
Static text summaries for each chart above, so the headline numbers in every dimension are readable without scrolling back through the visualizations.
VIX vs VIX3M (2Y window)
Current VIX 17.31; VIX3M 18.99. VIX range over the 2Y window: 12.8 to 52.3; VIX3M peak 41.5. Across the full 16-year sample, VIX has closed above VIX3M (backwardation) on 7.6% of trading days.
SPY behavior during backwardation
103 backwardation episodes detected since 2010. Average duration 3.1 days; median 2 days. Average SPY return from the close before each episode to its last close: -2.23%. Negative averages are consistent with backwardation accompanying selloffs.
IVTS distribution (2Y window)
Median IVTS: 0.8719; 95th percentile: 1.0230; 99th percentile: 1.1237; current: 0.9115. The bulk of mass sits well below 1.0 (contango); the long thin right tail captures rare backwardation episodes.
Rolling backwardation rate
Most recent rolling fractions of days in backwardation: 30-day 0.0%, 60-day 0.0%, 90-day 0.0%. Sustained elevated readings on the longer windows are typically the more meaningful regime-level signal.
02
Recent backwardation episodes
The five most recent periods when VIX traded above VIX3M (IVTS > 1.0). The SPY column shows the price change from the close before the episode's first day to its last close — a quick read on whether the episode coincided with an equity drawdown. The full 103-episode history since 2010 is in the Episodes chart tab above.
| Start | End | Days | Max IVTS | SPY return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-07 | 2026-04-07 | 1 | 1.0082 | +0.04% |
| 2026-03-26 | 2026-03-30 | 3 | 1.0608 | -3.78% |
| 2026-03-23 | 2026-03-24 | 2 | 1.0147 | +0.71% |
| 2026-03-12 | 2026-03-12 | 1 | 1.0126 | -1.52% |
| 2026-03-06 | 2026-03-09 | 2 | 1.0700 | -0.45% |
03
Spot VIX vs tradeable products
The VIX index on this page is a statistical measurement of S&P 500 implied volatility — not a tradeable instrument. You can't buy or sell the spot VIX directly. Traders who want exposure use VIX futures, VIX options, or one of several VIX-linked ETPs.
These products track VIX futures. They do not track the spot index, which means their behavior is meaningfully different from the index you see charted here. Most days the VIX futures curve is in contango (longer-dated futures priced higher than near-dated), and long-vol products lose value to that roll. Over multi-year horizons, that drag has been substantial.
| Product | Exposure | Key behavior |
|---|---|---|
| VXX | Long short-dated VIX futures (1× via futures roll) | Loses to contango most days; spikes during stress |
| UVXY | Leveraged long VIX futures (current factor per ProShares prospectus) | Amplified version of VXX. Heavier roll decay; sharper spikes |
| VIXY | 1× long VIX futures (alternative to VXX) | Similar exposure profile to VXX; different sponsor |
| SVXY | Inverse VIX futures (current factor per ProShares prospectus) | Profits during contango (most days); large drawdowns during vol spikes |
| VX futures | Direct CBOE VIX futures contracts | Settle to a special opening quotation of options expiring 30 days later |
The IVTS signal on this page is most useful as a read on market state, not as a direct trade. If you want to act on it, the spot index will diverge from any tradeable product over time. Understand the term-structure mechanics of whichever instrument you use.
Spec caveat: ETP exposures, leverage factors, and even product survival can change over time (XIV was terminated in Feb 2018; UVXY's leverage factor was reduced from 2× to 1.5× in Feb 2018). Always check the current prospectus before trading any of these instruments.
04
Historical VIX events
Major VIX episodes in our 16-year data window — each one appears as a detected episode in the catalogue above, so the characterizations here are computed from our own data rather than copied from reports. The pattern: VIX spikes are typically violent and brief — backwardation resolves within days to weeks in most cases (2020 is the notable exception where it persisted for 43 trading days).
| Event | Window | VIX before | VIX peak | SPY drawdown | Pattern |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 2015 China devaluation | Aug 2015 | ~13 in mid-Aug | ~53 (Aug 24, 2015) | –11% in 6 days | Sharp single-week spike on yuan devaluation. Our episode catalogue records a 9-day backwardation episode (Aug 20 – Sep 1), peak IVTS 1.31. |
| Feb 2018 "Volmageddon" | Feb 5, 2018 | ~15 in late Jan 2018 | 37.32 close, ~50 intraday peak | –10% in 9 sessions | Largest single-day VIX close move on record (~+116%). Forced unwind of short-vol products (XIV terminated). Our catalogue: 8-day episode, peak IVTS 1.33. |
| Q4 2018 selloff | Oct – Dec 2018 | ~12 in Sep 2018 | ~36 (Dec 26, 2018) | –19% peak-to-trough | Slow grind higher in VIX through Q4. Multiple backwardation episodes in Oct and Dec — visible as a cluster in the Episodes tab. |
| 2020 COVID crash | Feb – Mar 2020 | ~14 in mid-Feb 2020 | ~82.7 (Mar 16, 2020) | –34% in 33 days | Highest VIX close on record. Our catalogue records the longest episode in the sample: 43 consecutive trading days of backwardation (Feb 24 – Apr 23), peak IVTS 1.34. |
| 2022 rate-hike cycle | Jan – Oct 2022 | ~17 in Jan 2022 | ~36 (Sep 2022) | –25% peak-to-trough | Notably muted VIX response relative to depth of equity drawdown — a slow-grind bear with no panic phase. Episodes were frequent but short. |
| Aug 2024 yen carry unwind | Aug 5, 2024 | ~16 in early Aug 2024 | 38.57 close, ~65 intraday peak | –8% (brief) | Sharp single-day move on USD/JPY unwind; intraday VIX spiked far higher than the close. Our catalogue: 4-day episode (Aug 2–7), peak IVTS 1.14. |
Peak VIX values are daily closes from our data, cross-referenced with CBOE historical data. Where intraday peaks differed materially from the close (Feb 2018, Aug 2024), both are noted. Takeaway: the VIX is a sensitive but inconsistent forward indicator — it captured 2020 forcefully, but in slower regimes like 2022 the response was muted relative to the drawdown. Brief spikes (2015, 2018, 2024) often mark capitulation rather than the start of a longer drawdown.
05
Three ways to watch the VIX
The VIX is a single index, but how you watch it depends on what you need from it — a daily regime read, raw data for analysis, or real-time execution context for vol products.
| Property | Term-structure tracker (this page) | CBOE Direct (cboe.com) | Terminal workflow (Bloomberg, Refinitiv) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Index data | VIX, VIX3M (daily close, 16 years) | All CBOE volatility indices, free | All vol indices + futures + options |
| IVTS ratio computed | Yes, with backwardation labels | No (raw indices only) | Build via formula bar / scripts |
| Episode detection | Automatic — every episode since 2010 with dates and SPY return | Not provided | Custom analytics required |
| Update cadence | Daily after close | Real-time intraday for indices | Real-time intraday for everything |
| Cost | Free | Free for indices, paid for analytics | Subscription |
| Best for | Quick regime read; "is VIX in backwardation today" | Source of truth for index data; historical archive | Trading vol products; intraday options surface analysis |
For the question “is the VIX in backwardation right now and how long has it been,” this page gets you there fastest. For raw index history, CBOE Direct is the canonical source. For active vol-product trading, a terminal is the right tool.
VIX / VIX3M indexes2026-10-20 · close
CONTANGO
Day 136 in regime·16-yr backwardation rate 7.6%
IVTS
0.9115
-0.0885 from 1.0
VIX
17.31
30-day
VIX3M
18.99
3-month
VIX as of market close 2026-10-20: spot VIX 17.31, VIX3M 18.99, IVTS 0.9115. Term structure is in CONTANGO (day 136).
06
The Manual — the VIX term structure
Backwardation has appeared on just 8% of days since 2010, in 103 episodes (each a run of consecutive closes with VIX/VIX3M above 1.0) that lasted about 3 days on average — and from each episode's first day, SPY averaged +4.1% over the next quarter (74% positive), better than the +3.2% all-days average. The average inversion was a panic that passed; the danger lived in the ones that stayed. The full owner's guide covers the mechanics, the famous inversions with charts, and the settlement quirk that once burned us.
Read The VIX Term Structure Manual →How VIX Term Structure Tracker Works
- 1Pull daily VIX and VIX3M closing valuesEach trading day after the close, we record the official CBOE Volatility Index (VIX, 30-day implied volatility) and the 3-Month Volatility Index (VIX3M) closes in our price database. The series on this page reaches back to the end of 2009 — 16+ years of daily term-structure history.
- 2Compute the IVTS ratio (VIX / VIX3M)The Implied Volatility Term Structure (IVTS) ratio compares short-term to medium-term implied volatility. When near-term vol is bid relative to longer-term vol, the ratio rises above 1.0.
- 3Classify the regime and catalogue every episodeIVTS > 1.0 = backwardation (stress, near-term fear elevated). IVTS < 1.0 = contango (normal). Every contiguous backwardation episode since 2010 is catalogued with its start/end dates, duration, peak ratio, and SPY return — so today's reading always comes with its historical base rate.
- 4Read the monthly VIX futures settlementsAfter each session we download Cboe's official daily settlement file and keep the monthly VX contracts, leaving out weeklies and the mini contract. The curve compares every expiration with the previous session's settlement for the same expiration, so a contract roll never shifts the comparison. The front spread is the second month's settlement over the first, minus one.
Who Uses VIX Term Structure Tracker
Day Traders
Daily-close stress confirmation. After-close IVTS flips into backwardation indicate near-term hedging demand has spiked — usually consistent with capitulation moves in equities. Combine with intraday tools for execution.
Swing Traders
Identify volatility-regime shifts. Sustained backwardation (5+ days) has historically been associated with deeper drawdowns and is often watched as a defensive trigger. Sustained contango is consistent with risk-on conditions but not a standalone buy signal.
Options Traders
Term-structure context for vol-surface positioning. The IVTS ratio is a simple read on whether the vol curve is in normal contango or inverted into backwardation. Pair with skew (SKEW index) for full context before any vol-selling or vol-buying decision.
Risk Managers
Portfolio-level risk gauge alongside breadth indicators like the Hindenburg Omen. Cross-confirming signals across vol and breadth give the most reliable regime read.
Pro Tips
01
Backwardation flips happen fast
The IVTS can flip from contango to backwardation in a single session during sharp selloffs. The entry point is usually obvious — what matters is whether it sticks.
02
Sustained backwardation matters more than single-day flips
A single day of IVTS > 1.0 on a Friday afternoon is often noise. Five consecutive days of backwardation is a regime shift. Use the "days in regime" counter on the regime card.
03
IVTS magnitude indicates stress intensity
IVTS at 1.01 is borderline backwardation — barely there. IVTS at 1.10+ is significant near-term stress; near 1.20 is severe panic. In our 16-year sample, readings above 1.30 have occurred only in the worst episodes (2015, 2018, 2020).
04
Contango is the default — that's why backwardation matters
Backwardation has occurred on roughly 8% of trading days in our 16-year sample — about one day in thirteen. Don't expect frequent signals; expect rare and meaningful ones.
05
VIX rising while VIX3M flat = short-term panic only
When VIX is spiking but VIX3M is unchanged, hedgers are buying near-term protection without longer-term concern. Often resolves quickly. Watch for VIX3M to start rising — that's when the fear is becoming structural.
06
Use IVTS alongside SPY price action
Backwardation episodes that coincide with sharp SPY drops often mark capitulation lows. The episodes table on this page shows the SPY return through every past episode, measured from the close before it began: 94 of 103 (91%) ended lower.
07
IVTS leads, doesn't lag, the spot VIX
Because the ratio is normalized against 3-month vol, it filters out the absolute VIX level and focuses on the term-structure inversion. This makes it more sensitive to regime shifts than the spot VIX alone.
08
Pair with breadth for cross-asset confirmation
When IVTS goes into backwardation AND breadth signals like the Hindenburg Omen are active, the combined signal is generally more reliable than either alone.
Common Issues & Solutions
The IVTS ratio shows ~1.000 — which regime?▾
A ratio between 0.998 and 1.002 is essentially borderline. Watch the direction of the recent trend: if it's falling toward 1.0 from above (contango compressing), normal. If it's rising toward 1.0 from below (backwardation forming), pay attention. The day-in-regime counter helps too.
The backwardation rate looks low — only ~8%▾
That's expected. Backwardation is supposed to be rare. Across our 16-year sample (2010–present), VIX has closed above VIX3M on roughly 8% of trading days. The rarity is what makes the signal meaningful.
Why use VIX/VIX3M and not VIX/VIX9D?▾
VIX9D is the 9-day VIX — even shorter-term than the 30-day VIX. The VIX/VIX9D ratio is too noisy for regime detection. VIX3M (3-month) provides a stable longer-term anchor that filters out short-term noise. Both ratios are useful, but VIX/VIX3M is the standard.
Today's data shows yesterday▾
Cboe's VIX and VIX3M settle at 4:15 PM ET, fifteen minutes after the equity close, and our daily run picks up the close later that afternoon. Until then the page shows the prior session. The newest VIX/VIX3M close is provisional: Cboe's indexes keep printing after the settle, so we check it against the official settlement the next session and correct it if they differ.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the VIX?▾
The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) measures the market's expectation of 30-day forward implied volatility, derived from S&P 500 index option prices. It's often called the "fear gauge" — when traders expect bigger moves, VIX rises. It's expressed in annualized percentage points (a VIX of 20 implies ~20% annualized volatility).
What is VIX3M?▾
VIX3M is the CBOE 3-Month Volatility Index — the same methodology as VIX but using S&P 500 options expiring 3 months out instead of 30 days. It's a measure of medium-term implied volatility, less sensitive to short-term shocks.
What is VIX backwardation?▾
Backwardation is when near-term implied volatility (VIX) trades above longer-term implied volatility (VIX3M) — i.e., the VIX/VIX3M ratio is greater than 1.0. It's the inverse of the normal volatility term structure. Backwardation typically appears during stress events when traders are paying up for short-dated protection.
What is contango in the VIX term structure?▾
Contango is the "normal" state of the VIX term structure: longer-term implied volatility (VIX3M) exceeds near-term (VIX), so the IVTS ratio is below 1.0. It reflects steady longer-term hedging demand without acute short-term fear. In our 16-year sample, roughly 92% of trading days were in contango.
What is the IVTS ratio?▾
IVTS stands for Implied Volatility Term Structure. It's simply VIX divided by VIX3M — a single-number summary of the volatility term structure. IVTS > 1.0 = backwardation (stress). IVTS < 1.0 = contango (normal). The advantage over watching the absolute VIX level is that IVTS controls for overall vol regime — a backwardation can occur even at low absolute VIX.
Is the VIX currently in backwardation?▾
The page answers it two ways, each with its own date. The regime card at the top reads the two volatility indexes at their close: backwardation when VIX is above VIX3M, with the number of days the regime has lasted. The futures curve further down reads the monthly VIX futures at the latest Cboe settlement: contango when the second month settled above the first, backwardation when below. The two measures usually agree and can briefly disagree, because futures settle on expected future VIX levels and the indexes measure implied volatility today.
What does a high VIX mean?▾
A high VIX (say, above 25) means options markets are pricing in larger expected moves over the next 30 days. Historically, sustained VIX above 30 has accompanied bear markets and credit-stress episodes. A spike to 30+ can also mark capitulation lows. Context matters: high VIX during a selloff is fear; high VIX during a rally is unusual and worth noting.
What is a normal VIX level?▾
There is no single "normal" — the distribution shifts across volatility regimes. Historically, the median VIX has tended to sit in the high teens, with calm regimes settling lower (low-to-mid teens) and active regimes higher (high teens to low 20s). Stressed regimes typically see VIX in the 25-35 range; crisis episodes (2008, 2020) saw spikes well above 50. The distribution is heavily right-skewed, meaning most days are calm but tail risk is meaningful.
Why does VIX spike during selloffs?▾
Three reasons. (1) Selloffs increase realized volatility, which feeds into implied volatility. (2) Investors rush to buy put options for downside protection, pushing up option prices and therefore implied volatility. (3) Vol traders who are short volatility are forced to cover, creating reflexive buying pressure. The result: VIX moves nonlinearly — sharp SPY drops typically produce outsized VIX increases.
How is the VIX calculated?▾
VIX is calculated from a weighted basket of S&P 500 index options spanning a wide range of strike prices, with maturities bracketing 30 days. The CBOE methodology essentially computes the variance swap rate implied by option prices, then takes the square root and annualizes. The result is a model-free measure of expected 30-day volatility.
Can I trade the VIX directly?▾
Not the VIX index itself — you can't buy or sell the spot index directly. But you can trade VIX futures (VX), VIX options, and VIX-linked ETPs like VXX (long vol) and SVXY (short vol). All of these have term-structure effects (contango drag in VXX, etc.) that are very different from the spot VIX. See the products table on this page.
Is VIX in backwardation always bearish for stocks?▾
Not reliably. The episodes table shows SPY's return through every VIX/VIX3M backwardation episode since 2010, and most ended lower, which is what selling during stress looks like. The "What happened after" section measures the weeks and months after the first inverted close against all days in the same record, so the after-effect can be read separately from the selloff that caused the inversion.
What is the "fear gauge"?▾
"Fear gauge" is a popular nickname for the VIX. The reasoning: when traders are afraid, they buy put options for downside protection, which pushes up implied volatility and therefore the VIX. So a rising VIX = rising fear (in aggregate). Like all single-number gauges, it oversimplifies — but the directional read is generally correct.
How does this differ from VIX9D or VIX1Y?▾
VIX9D is the 9-day VIX — extremely short-term, very noisy. VIX1Y is one-year volatility. VIX3M is the standard medium-term anchor. The VIX/VIX3M ratio is the most commonly watched term-structure ratio because it pairs the standard 30-day VIX with a stable 3-month reference. Other ratios (VIX9D/VIX, VIX/VIX1Y) exist but are less widely tracked.
How often is this page updated?▾
Once each trading day after the close. The futures curve uses Cboe's official daily settlements and shows the settlement date. The VIX/VIX3M ratio, regime and episode statistics use the index closes after Cboe's 4:15 PM ET settle; treat the newest index close as provisional, because it is checked against Cboe's official value the next session.
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