VIX Term Structure: VIX/VIX3M Backwardation & Contango Tracker

Free VIX term structure tracker with 16 years of daily history. The VIX/VIX3M ratio (IVTS) identifies volatility regime shifts. When VIX exceeds VIX3M (ratio > 1.0), the term structure is in backwardation — typically associated with short-term stress and elevated near-term hedging demand. Otherwise the term structure is in contango — the normal calm-market state. Every backwardation episode since 2010 is catalogued below with its SPY outcome.

Index methodology: VIX is the CBOE Volatility Index; VIX3M is the 3-Month Volatility Index. Both are calculated and published by Cboe Global Markets. Pair this read with the Hindenburg Omen for breadth confirmation.

Today's reading

As of market close on June 5, 2026, the VIX term structure is in contango, the normal state. VIX closed at 21.51 and VIX3M at 21.82, putting the IVTS ratio at 0.9858 (backwardation begins above 1.0000). This is day 42 of the current contango regime. The ratio rose from 0.8008 the prior session — moving toward the backwardation threshold. The most recent backwardation episode ran 2026-04-07 to 2026-04-07 (1 trading day, peak IVTS 1.0082, SPY +0.00% through the episode). Since 2010, backwardation has occurred on 7.8% of trading days across 103 episodes.

IVTS
Implied Volatility Term Structure — VIX divided by VIX3M; single-number summary of the curve.
Backwardation (IVTS > 1.0)
Near-term vol bid above 3-month vol; short-term stress and elevated hedging demand.
Contango (IVTS < 1.0)
Normal state — 3-month vol exceeds spot VIX. Calm-market default.
Term structure2026-06-05 · close
CONTANGO
Day 42 in regime·16-yr backwardation rate 7.8%
IVTS
0.9858
-0.0142 from 1.0
VIX
21.51
30-day
VIX3M
21.82
3-month
VIX as of market close 2026-06-05: spot VIX 21.51, VIX3M 21.82, IVTS 0.9858. Term structure is in CONTANGO (day 42). Backwardation has occurred on 321 of 4,132 trading days since 2010.
Source
Daily VIX and VIX3M index closes (CBOE indices) from our price database
Methodology
IVTS = VIX / VIX3M; backwardation when ratio > 1.0; episodes are contiguous backwardation runs
Updates
Daily after market close (~1pm PT)
Last: 2026-06-06

IVTS Signal (VIX / VIX3M)

Ratio of 30-day implied volatility (VIX) to 3-month implied volatility (VIX3M). Values above 1.0 mark backwardation — short-term implied vol exceeds longer-term, signaling near-term stress. Grey line shows SPY for cross-asset context.
IVTS Ratio
SPY Price
Backwardation (1.0)
01

Summary statistics across all dimensions

Static text summaries for each chart view above. Click between tabs for the full visualizations; this block surfaces the headline numbers in every dimension regardless of which chart is active.

VIX vs VIX3M (2Y window)

Current VIX 21.51; VIX3M 21.82. VIX range over the 2Y window: 11.9 to 52.3; VIX3M peak 41.5. Across the full 16-year sample, VIX has closed above VIX3M (backwardation) on 7.8% of trading days.

SPY behavior during backwardation

103 backwardation episodes detected since 2010. Average duration 3.1 days; median 2 days. Average SPY return from episode start to end: -0.67%. Negative averages are consistent with backwardation accompanying selloffs.

IVTS distribution (2Y window)

Median IVTS: 0.8781; 95th percentile: 1.0256; 99th percentile: 1.1394; current: 0.9858. The bulk of mass sits well below 1.0 (contango); the long thin right tail captures rare backwardation episodes.

Rolling backwardation rate

Most recent rolling fractions of days in backwardation: 30-day 0.0%, 60-day 11.7%, 90-day 11.1%. Sustained elevated readings on the longer windows are typically the more meaningful regime-level signal.

02

Recent backwardation episodes

The five most recent periods when VIX traded above VIX3M (IVTS > 1.0). The SPY column shows the price change from the episode's first day to its last — a quick read on whether the episode coincided with an equity drawdown. The full 103-episode history since 2010 is in the Episodes chart tab above.

StartEndDaysMax IVTSSPY return
2026-04-072026-04-0711.0082+0.00%
2026-03-262026-03-3031.0608-2.03%
2026-03-232026-03-2421.0147-0.34%
2026-03-122026-03-1211.0126+0.00%
2026-03-062026-03-0921.0700+0.88%
03

Spot VIX vs tradeable products

The VIX index on this page is a statistical measurement of S&P 500 implied volatility — not a tradeable instrument. You can't buy or sell the spot VIX directly. Traders who want exposure use VIX futures, VIX options, or one of several VIX-linked ETPs.

These products track VIX futures, not the spot index, which means their behavior is meaningfully different from the index you see charted here. Most days the VIX futures curve is in contango (longer-dated futures priced higher than near-dated), and long-vol products lose value to that roll. Over multi-year horizons, that drag has been substantial.

ProductExposureKey behavior
VXXLong short-dated VIX futures (1× via futures roll)Loses to contango most days; spikes during stress
UVXYLeveraged long VIX futures (current factor per ProShares prospectus)Amplified version of VXX. Heavier roll decay; sharper spikes
VIXY1× long VIX futures (alternative to VXX)Similar exposure profile to VXX; different sponsor
SVXYInverse VIX futures (current factor per ProShares prospectus)Profits during contango (most days); large drawdowns during vol spikes
VX futuresDirect CBOE VIX futures contractsSettle to a special opening quotation of options expiring 30 days later

The IVTS signal on this page is most useful as a read on market state, not as a direct trade. If you want to act on it, the spot index will diverge from any tradeable product over time. Understand the term-structure mechanics of whichever instrument you use.

Spec caveat: ETP exposures, leverage factors, and even product survival can change over time (XIV was terminated in Feb 2018; UVXY's leverage factor was reduced from 2× to 1.5× in Feb 2018). Always check the current prospectus before trading any of these instruments.

04

Historical VIX events

Major VIX episodes in our 16-year data window — each one appears as a detected episode in the catalogue above, so the characterizations here are computed from our own data, not just reported. The pattern: VIX spikes are typically violent and brief — backwardation resolves within days to weeks in most cases (2020 is the notable exception where it persisted for 43 trading days).

EventWindowVIX beforeVIX peakSPY drawdownPattern
Aug 2015 China devaluationAug 2015~13 in mid-Aug~53 (Aug 24, 2015)–11% in 6 daysSharp single-week spike on yuan devaluation. Our episode catalogue records a 9-day backwardation episode (Aug 20 – Sep 1), peak IVTS 1.31.
Feb 2018 "Volmageddon"Feb 5, 2018~15 in late Jan 201837.32 close, ~50 intraday peak–10% in 9 sessionsLargest single-day VIX close move on record (~+116%). Forced unwind of short-vol products (XIV terminated). Our catalogue: 8-day episode, peak IVTS 1.33.
Q4 2018 selloffOct – Dec 2018~12 in Sep 2018~36 (Dec 26, 2018)–19% peak-to-troughSlow grind higher in VIX through Q4. Multiple backwardation episodes in Oct and Dec — visible as a cluster in the Episodes tab.
2020 COVID crashFeb – Mar 2020~14 in mid-Feb 2020~82.7 (Mar 16, 2020)–34% in 33 daysHighest VIX close on record. Our catalogue records the longest episode in the sample: 43 consecutive trading days of backwardation (Feb 24 – Apr 23), peak IVTS 1.34.
2022 rate-hike cycleJan – Oct 2022~17 in Jan 2022~36 (Sep 2022)–25% peak-to-troughNotably muted VIX response relative to depth of equity drawdown — a slow-grind bear, not a panic. Episodes were frequent but short.
Aug 2024 yen carry unwindAug 5, 2024~16 in early Aug 202438.57 close, ~65 intraday peak–8% (brief)Sharp single-day move on USD/JPY unwind; intraday VIX spiked far higher than the close. Our catalogue: 4-day episode (Aug 2–7), peak IVTS 1.14.

Peak VIX values are daily closes from our data, cross-referenced with CBOE historical data. Where intraday peaks differed materially from the close (Feb 2018, Aug 2024), both are noted. Takeaway: the VIX is a sensitive but inconsistent forward indicator — it captured 2020 forcefully, but in slower regimes like 2022 the response was muted relative to the drawdown. Brief spikes (2015, 2018, 2024) often mark capitulation rather than the start of a longer drawdown.

05

Three ways to watch the VIX

The VIX is a single index, but how you watch it depends on what you need from it — a daily regime read, raw data for analysis, or real-time execution context for vol products.

PropertyTerm-structure tracker
(this page)
CBOE Direct
(cboe.com)
Terminal workflow
(Bloomberg, Refinitiv)
Index dataVIX, VIX3M (daily close, 16 years)All CBOE volatility indices, freeAll vol indices + futures + options
IVTS ratio computedYes, with backwardation labelsNo (raw indices only)Build via formula bar / scripts
Episode detectionAutomatic — every episode since 2010 with dates and SPY returnNot providedCustom analytics required
Update cadenceDaily after closeReal-time intraday for indicesReal-time intraday for everything
CostFreeFree for indices, paid for analyticsSubscription
Best forQuick regime read; "is VIX in backwardation today"Source of truth for index data; historical archiveTrading vol products; intraday options surface analysis

For the question “is the VIX in backwardation right now and how long has it been,” this page gets you there fastest. For raw index history, CBOE Direct is the canonical source. For active vol-product trading, a terminal is the right tool.

How VIX Term Structure Tracker Works

  1. 1
    Pull daily VIX and VIX3M closing values
    Each trading day after the close, we record the official CBOE Volatility Index (VIX, 30-day implied volatility) and the 3-Month Volatility Index (VIX3M) closes in our price database. The series on this page reaches back to the end of 2009 — 16+ years of daily term-structure history.
  2. 2
    Compute the IVTS ratio (VIX / VIX3M)
    The Implied Volatility Term Structure (IVTS) ratio compares short-term to medium-term implied volatility. When near-term vol is bid relative to longer-term vol, the ratio rises above 1.0.
  3. 3
    Classify the regime and catalogue every episode
    IVTS > 1.0 = backwardation (stress, near-term fear elevated). IVTS < 1.0 = contango (normal). Every contiguous backwardation episode since 2010 is catalogued with its start/end dates, duration, peak ratio, and SPY return — so today's reading always comes with its historical base rate.

Who Uses VIX Term Structure Tracker

Day Traders
Daily-close stress confirmation. After-close IVTS flips into backwardation indicate near-term hedging demand has spiked — usually consistent with capitulation moves in equities. Combine with intraday tools for execution.
Swing Traders
Identify volatility-regime shifts. Sustained backwardation (5+ days) has historically been associated with deeper drawdowns and is often watched as a defensive trigger. Sustained contango is consistent with risk-on conditions but not a standalone buy signal.
Options Traders
Term-structure context for vol-surface positioning. The IVTS ratio is a simple read on whether the vol curve is in normal contango or inverted into backwardation. Pair with skew (SKEW index) for full context before any vol-selling or vol-buying decision.
Risk Managers
Portfolio-level risk gauge alongside breadth indicators like the Hindenburg Omen. Cross-confirming signals across vol and breadth give the most reliable regime read.

Pro Tips

01
Backwardation flips happen fast
The IVTS can flip from contango to backwardation in a single session during sharp selloffs. The entry point is usually obvious — what matters is whether it sticks.
02
Sustained backwardation matters more than single-day flips
A single day of IVTS > 1.0 on a Friday afternoon is often noise. Five consecutive days of backwardation is a regime shift. Use the "days in regime" counter on the regime card.
03
IVTS magnitude indicates stress intensity
IVTS at 1.01 is borderline backwardation — barely there. IVTS at 1.10+ is significant near-term stress; near 1.20 is severe panic. In our 16-year sample, readings above 1.30 have occurred only in the worst episodes (2015, 2018, 2020).
04
Contango is the default — that's why backwardation matters
Backwardation has occurred on roughly 8% of trading days in our 16-year sample — about one day in thirteen. Don't expect frequent signals; expect rare and meaningful ones.
05
VIX rising while VIX3M flat = short-term panic only
When VIX is spiking but VIX3M is unchanged, hedgers are buying near-term protection without longer-term concern. Often resolves quickly. Watch for VIX3M to start rising — that's when the fear is becoming structural.
06
Use IVTS alongside SPY price action
Backwardation episodes that coincide with sharp SPY drops often mark capitulation lows. The episodes table on this page shows the SPY return through every past episode — most are negative through the episode, with recoveries beginning near the episode end.
07
IVTS leads, doesn't lag, the spot VIX
Because the ratio is normalized against 3-month vol, it filters out the absolute VIX level and focuses on the term-structure inversion. This makes it more sensitive to regime shifts than the spot VIX alone.
08
Pair with breadth for cross-asset confirmation
When IVTS goes into backwardation AND breadth signals like the Hindenburg Omen are active, the combined signal is generally more reliable than either alone.

Common Issues & Solutions

The IVTS ratio shows ~1.000 — which regime?
A ratio between 0.998 and 1.002 is essentially borderline. Watch the direction of the recent trend: if it's falling toward 1.0 from above (contango compressing), normal. If it's rising toward 1.0 from below (backwardation forming), pay attention. The day-in-regime counter helps too.
The backwardation rate looks low — only ~8%
That's expected. Backwardation is supposed to be rare. Across our 16-year sample (2010–present), VIX has closed above VIX3M on roughly 8% of trading days. The rarity is what makes the signal meaningful.
Why use VIX/VIX3M and not VIX/VIX9D?
VIX9D is the 9-day VIX — even shorter-term than the 30-day VIX. The VIX/VIX9D ratio is too noisy for regime detection. VIX3M (3-month) provides a stable longer-term anchor that filters out short-term noise. Both ratios are useful, but VIX/VIX3M is the standard.
Today's data shows yesterday
Daily index closes settle a few minutes after the equity close. Our pipeline runs at ~1 PM PT (4 PM ET) and the recompute completes shortly after. Today's VIX/VIX3M close should land by ~5 PM ET on regular trading days.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the VIX?
The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) measures the market's expectation of 30-day forward implied volatility, derived from S&P 500 index option prices. It's often called the "fear gauge" — when traders expect bigger moves, VIX rises. It's expressed in annualized percentage points (a VIX of 20 implies ~20% annualized volatility).
What is VIX3M?
VIX3M is the CBOE 3-Month Volatility Index — the same methodology as VIX but using S&P 500 options expiring 3 months out instead of 30 days. It's a measure of medium-term implied volatility, less sensitive to short-term shocks.
What is VIX backwardation?
Backwardation is when near-term implied volatility (VIX) trades above longer-term implied volatility (VIX3M) — i.e., the VIX/VIX3M ratio is greater than 1.0. It's the inverse of the normal volatility term structure. Backwardation typically appears during stress events when traders are paying up for short-dated protection.
What is contango in the VIX term structure?
Contango is the "normal" state of the VIX term structure: longer-term implied volatility (VIX3M) exceeds near-term (VIX), so the IVTS ratio is below 1.0. It reflects steady longer-term hedging demand without acute short-term fear. In our 16-year sample, roughly 92% of trading days were in contango.
What is the IVTS ratio?
IVTS stands for Implied Volatility Term Structure. It's simply VIX divided by VIX3M — a single-number summary of the volatility term structure. IVTS > 1.0 = backwardation (stress). IVTS < 1.0 = contango (normal). The advantage over watching the absolute VIX level is that IVTS controls for overall vol regime — a backwardation can occur even at low absolute VIX.
Is the VIX currently in backwardation?
The current state is shown in the regime card at the top of this page, dated to the most recent market close — Backwardation (red) or Contango (green) — along with how many consecutive days the regime has persisted. Backwardation episodes typically last a few days; sustained ones (5+ days) are more meaningful.
What does a high VIX mean?
A high VIX (say, above 25) means options markets are pricing in larger expected moves over the next 30 days. Historically, sustained VIX above 30 has accompanied bear markets and credit-stress episodes. A spike to 30+ can also mark capitulation lows. Context matters: high VIX during a selloff is fear; high VIX during a rally is unusual and worth noting.
What is a normal VIX level?
There is no single "normal" — the distribution shifts across volatility regimes. Historically, the median VIX has tended to sit in the high teens, with calm regimes settling lower (low-to-mid teens) and active regimes higher (high teens to low 20s). Stressed regimes typically see VIX in the 25-35 range; crisis episodes (2008, 2020) saw spikes well above 50. The distribution is heavily right-skewed, meaning most days are calm but tail risk is meaningful.
Why does VIX spike during selloffs?
Three reasons. (1) Selloffs increase realized volatility, which feeds into implied volatility. (2) Investors rush to buy put options for downside protection, pushing up option prices and therefore implied volatility. (3) Vol traders who are short volatility are forced to cover, creating reflexive buying pressure. The result: VIX moves nonlinearly — sharp SPY drops typically produce outsized VIX increases.
How is the VIX calculated?
VIX is calculated from a weighted basket of S&P 500 index options spanning a wide range of strike prices, with maturities bracketing 30 days. The CBOE methodology essentially computes the variance swap rate implied by option prices, then takes the square root and annualizes. The result is a model-free measure of expected 30-day volatility.
Can I trade the VIX directly?
Not the VIX index itself — you can't buy or sell the spot index directly. But you can trade VIX futures (VX), VIX options, and VIX-linked ETPs like VXX (long vol) and SVXY (short vol). All of these have term-structure effects (contango drag in VXX, etc.) that are very different from the spot VIX. See the products table on this page.
Is VIX in backwardation always bearish for stocks?
Not always. Sustained backwardation (5+ days) has historically coincided with extended drawdowns. But brief backwardation flips during sharp single-day selloffs often mark capitulation and short-term reversal points. The episodes table on this page shows the SPY return through every backwardation episode since 2010 — use it to calibrate.
What is the "fear gauge"?
"Fear gauge" is a popular nickname for the VIX. The reasoning: when traders are afraid, they buy put options for downside protection, which pushes up implied volatility and therefore the VIX. So a rising VIX = rising fear (in aggregate). Like all single-number gauges, it oversimplifies — but the directional read is generally correct.
How does this differ from VIX9D or VIX1Y?
VIX9D is the 9-day VIX — extremely short-term, very noisy. VIX1Y is one-year volatility. VIX3M is the standard medium-term anchor. The VIX/VIX3M ratio is the most commonly watched term-structure ratio because it pairs the standard 30-day VIX with a stable 3-month reference. Other ratios (VIX9D/VIX, VIX/VIX1Y) exist but are less widely tracked.
How often is this page updated?
Daily after market close (around 1 PM PT / 4 PM ET). The recompute generates a fresh dataset within minutes after the close data lands. The IVTS ratio, current regime, days-in-regime, and the rolling backwardation statistics all reflect the most recent close — the as-of date is shown on the regime card.

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Last updated: 2026-06-05