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Swing · 1 week – 3 monthsAll inputs daily · through 2026-07-14 · updated after every close

Swing Tracker: Do Internals Support a Multi-Week Hold?

Healthy — the Swing Score reads 84/100 from 14 daily internals across five dimensions. This measures condition, not control or valuation: every check is classified calm / neutral / watch / risk on a documented threshold, dimensions weigh equally, and the identical scoring function replays the 2019+ history — so the live gauge and the band base rates below cannot drift.

What drives today's read

Strongest dimension

Trend at 100/100.

Weakest dimension

Divergence at 50/100 — the swing factor.

Checks on watch

1 of 14 checks at watch or risk — named below.

Sources, methodology & freshnessLast updated 2026-07-14 · Open ↓
Source
Own daily breadth universe (~5,500 stocks): MA breadth, net new highs, Bullish % Index, McClellan, A-D line, repair flow, Hidden Bear gap, Hindenburg Omen — plus CBOE VIX/VIX3M and HYG/LQD credit data
Methodology
Five equal-weight dimensions of daily internals; each check classified calm/neutral/watch/risk on a documented threshold and mapped 100/65/30/0; checks equal-weight within their dimension. Fixed band edges 75/55/35. The identical scoring function replays one value-map per day since 2019, so the live gauge always equals the latest history point and the band base rates cannot drift.
Updates
Daily after the US closeLast: 2026-07-14
Maintained & reviewed by Yuriy Matso — methodology shown on the page.
Swing score2026-07-14 · close
Healthy

healthy for 11 sessions · trend 100 · participation 83 · momentum 88 · divergence 50 · volatility 100

risk-offfragileconstructivehealthy355575
01

The score through time — every session since 2019

The same scoring function replayed over one value-map per past day, with checks lacking clean daily history excluded so the live basket and the backtested basket always match. SPY rides the top pane for context; the score is green on the constructive side of the 55 line and red below it. The dips below 35 are the study's Risk-Off sample — 2020, 2022 and the 2025 stress among them.

Window:
SPY (top pane, log) Swing Score at/above 55 below 55

Swing Score, daily since 2019 (1,892 sessions), replayed by the identical scoring function — the latest history point always equals the live gauge. Band edges are fixed at 75/55/35. Endpoint: 84/100 (Healthy).

02

The five dimensions — check by check

Every check is a documented threshold, not an opinion. Checks weigh equally within their dimension; dimensions weigh equally in the score. Each links to its own tool with the full series and methodology.

Trend

100/100

Participation

83/100

Momentum & Thrust

88/100

Divergence

50/100

Volatility & Credit

100/100
03

What happened next — SPY after each band

Average SPY return after every prior session in each band, 2019+. The pattern is contrarian — the stressed bands preceded the strongest forward returns, marking washouts more often than tops.

Current band

Healthy

1052 prior sessions
Next 1 month
+0.9%
Next 3 months
+2.9%
Next 6 months
+6.3%

Healthy

Today
Days
1052
Next 1 month
+0.9%
Next 3 months
+2.9%
Next 6 months
+6.3%
6-month win
77%

Constructive

Days
438
Next 1 month
+1.5%
Next 3 months
+3.5%
Next 6 months
+7.0%
6-month win
77%

Fragile

Days
223
Next 1 month
+2.6%
Next 3 months
+5.8%
Next 6 months
+9.4%
6-month win
79%

Risk-Off

Days
53
Next 1 month
+4.0%
Next 3 months
+14.3%
Next 6 months
+21.4%
6-month win
87%

All days (baseline)

Days
1766
Next 1 month
+1.4%
Next 3 months
+3.8%
Next 6 months
+7.3%
6-month win
78%

Overlapping forward windows — adjacent sessions share most of their forward path, so sample sizes are optimistic; the sample begins in 2019. SPY price return, dividends excluded.

04

What flips this read

Band edges are fixed at 75/55/35. Today's 84 is 9 points above the Constructive line (75). The weakest dimension — divergence at 50/100 — is the swing factor; its checks are listed above with the state each would need to reclaim.
05

What this page cannot tell you

The Swing Score reads structure, not price targets — and its own base rates argue against using it as a directional signal: the stressed bands averaged the best forward returns since 2019. It also says nothing about valuation (the Bubble Tracker's question) or about who controls this week's tape (the Tape Tracker's). The backtest window starts in 2019 and contains a handful of stress episodes — treat the band tables as context, not statistics with independent samples.

How Swing Tracker Works

  1. 1
    Five dimensions of daily internals
    Trend (the index against its own 50- and 200-day averages), participation (% of ~5,500 stocks above their averages, net new highs, the Bullish % Index), momentum & thrust (McClellan Oscillator, A-D line trend, repair flow), divergence (the Hidden Bear gap, Hindenburg Omen clusters), and volatility & credit (VIX term structure, HYG/LQD credit ratio, financial stress). Every input is daily — no monthly or quarterly prints dampening the read.
  2. 2
    Documented thresholds, not opinions
    Each check is classified calm / neutral / watch / risk on a stated threshold and mapped to 100 / 65 / 30 / 0. Checks average into their dimension, and the five dimensions average, equal-weight, into the score — so one crowded dimension cannot stuff the ballot.
  3. 3
    Fixed band edges: 75 / 55 / 35
    Healthy (75+), Constructive (55+), Fragile (35+), Risk-Off (below 35). The edges never re-fit. Checks without clean daily history are excluded from the live gauge so the basket you see today is exactly the basket the backtest scored.
  4. 4
    Backtested by the identical function
    The same scoring function replays one value-map per trading day since 2019, so the latest history point always equals the live gauge — no live-vs-history drift. Average SPY returns over the next 1, 3 and 6 months are published for every band, and the finding is contrarian: the stressed bands preceded the strongest forward returns.

Who Uses Swing Tracker

Swing traders
The core "does the structure support a multi-week hold?" gauge — with the weakest dimension and the specific checks dragging it named on the page.
Position sizers
A dated, reproducible condition score with band base rates to anchor exposure decisions between the daily tape and the slower cycle.
Dip evaluators
The band table quantifies the contrarian pattern: Fragile and Risk-Off readings averaged the best forward 1–6 month returns since 2019 — stressed internals marked washouts more often than tops.
Internals learners
One page shows how trend, participation, momentum, divergence and credit fit together, with every check linking to its full tool.

Pro Tips

01
Stressed bands were entries, not exits
Since 2019, Risk-Off days averaged the strongest forward 3- and 6-month SPY returns in the study. That is a base rate, not a promise — but it argues against treating a falling score as a sell signal by itself.
02
Watch the weakest dimension, not just the score
A 70 carried by four strong dimensions and one collapsing one is more fragile than a flat 70. The flip section names the current swing factor and the exact checks that would need to reclaim their thresholds.
03
Divergence is the early-warning dimension
Trend and participation describe the present; the divergence checks (Hidden Bear gap, Omen clusters) historically deteriorated before price did. A healthy score with divergence sliding deserves closer attention than the headline number suggests.
04
Read it against the Tape and Cycle clocks
Swing is the middle clock: a stressed tape inside a healthy swing structure is usually a dip, while a healthy tape inside a deteriorating swing structure is the combination that precedes trouble. The tracker strip up top keeps all four clocks one click away.

Common Issues & Solutions

Why does the history only start in 2019?▾
Deliberately. Every check in the live gauge needs clean daily history for the whole backtest window so the live basket and the backtested basket are identical. Extending further back would mean swapping inputs mid-history — the score would no longer mean the same thing across time.
Why are there no macro inputs?▾
Mixing cadences lets stale monthly and quarterly prints dampen a daily read. The swing window is 1 week to 3 months — daily internals are the evidence at that horizon; the slower economic cycle belongs to the Cycle and Valuation clocks.
The score is high but the market feels expensive▾
Condition and valuation are different questions. The Swing Score reads internal structure over weeks; it says nothing about long-run prices — that is the Bubble Tracker's job, and the two can legitimately disagree for years.
The score moved 3 points — does that matter?▾
Usually not. Band edges are fixed at 75/55/35, and wiggles inside a band are noise. The meaningful events are band changes and a dimension breaking below 50 — both stated explicitly on the page.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Swing Score?▾
A 0–100 composite of daily market internals across five equal-weight dimensions — trend, participation, momentum & thrust, divergence, and volatility & credit. Each check is classified calm / neutral / watch / risk on a documented threshold and mapped to 100 / 65 / 30 / 0. It answers one question: does the market's internal structure currently support holding positions for weeks?
What do the bands mean?▾
Healthy (75+): internals broadly confirm the trend. Constructive (55–74): supportive with soft spots. Fragile (35–54): meaningful internal damage. Risk-Off (below 35): broad internal stress. The edges are fixed and never re-fit.
Is a low Swing Score a sell signal?▾
Historically the opposite on average: since 2019 the Fragile and Risk-Off bands preceded the strongest forward 1–6 month SPY returns — internal stress marked washouts more often than tops. The score describes today's condition; the base-rate table describes what followed similar conditions.
How is it different from the Tape Tracker and Cycle Tracker?▾
Three horizons of the same market: Tape reads control over the last 10 sessions (today–5 sessions), Swing reads internal condition for multi-week holds (1 week–3 months), Cycle reads how broadly the average stock participates (3–12 months). They can disagree, and the disagreement is information.
What data feeds it?▾
Our own daily computations over a ~5,500-stock universe (breadth, new highs/lows, Bullish %, McClellan, A-D line, repair flow, Hidden Bear gap, Hindenburg Omen) plus CBOE volatility indices and credit ETF ratios. Every check links to its own tool page with full history and methodology.
How often does it update?▾
Every US trading day after the close. All inputs are daily by design, so the score is never waiting on a monthly or quarterly release.

Explore Other Tools

Market Breadth
% of stocks above the 20/50/200-day — the participation dimension's anchor
McClellan Oscillator
The breadth-momentum input inside momentum & thrust
Hidden Bear Index
The average stock vs the index — the divergence dimension's core check
Credit Spreads
HYG/LQD regime — the credit half of volatility & credit
Hindenburg Omen
Split-market divergence clusters, computed from our own universe
Last updated: 2026-07-14