SMH put spread likely sold: bullish if this is a new position
Logged Oct 26, 2026 at 10:00 ET with SMH at $532.65. The position it leaves is short 6,400 Nov 20 500 puts, long 6,400 Nov 20 400 puts, bullish on SMH if this is a new position: the prints, what most likely happened, scenarios to expiry and the payoff follow.
Now short 6,400 Nov 20 500 puts, long 6,400 Nov 20 400 puts: bullish on SMH if this is a new position.
- Money behind it
- $80.32Mlong SMH, the position's share-equivalent
- Potential profit
- +$5.90Mif SMH ends at or above $500.00 on Nov 20; +$5.90M if SMH ends flat
- Max risk
- −$58.10Mif SMH ends at or below $400.00 on Nov 20
- Capital behind it
- $64.00M$64.00M standard margin · $22.38M portfolio margin
- Return, 25 days
- up to 9%9% max, 9% if flat, on standard margin
- Breakeven
- $490.78−7.9% from $532.65
- The trade
- $6.96Mpremium across 12,800 contracts; +$5.90M net cash received
Side read from the fill, not reported by the tape. Computed from the logged prints. Not advice.
The trade
Put credit spread: sell the Nov 20 500 put and buy the Nov 20 400 put, same size, paired spread prints on BOX.
| Time (ET) | Option | Qty | Price | Exchange | Market | Delta | IV | SMH | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10:00:03 | Nov 20 500 put | 6,400 | 10.05 | BOX | 10.05 × 10.45 | −0.26 | 43.1% | 532.65 | Sold |
| 10:00:03 | Nov 20 400 put | 6,400 | 0.83 | BOX | 0.77 × 0.86 | −0.03 | 58.8% | 532.65 | Bought |
| Total | Nov 20 500 put | 6,400 | 10.05 | BOX | 10.05 × 10.45 | -0.26 | 43.1% | $6.43M premium | |
| Total | Nov 20 400 put | 6,400 | 0.83 | BOX | 0.77 × 0.86 | -0.03 | 58.8% | $531K premium | |
Every print of the order as it crossed the tape, in the time-and-sales layout. Prices in green printed at the ask, in red at the bid. Delta and implied volatility are solved from each print's own price against SMH at $532.65 (Black-Scholes, fed funds, no dividend), so they differ slightly from a broker's. Totals weight price and quote by size. "Read" is our reading of the side, explained next.
What most likely happened
At 10:00 ET, 6,400 Nov 20 500 puts and 6,400 Nov 20 400 puts traded together in one order on BOX, the same size on every leg: one trader, one decision.
Our read is that if this is a new position, it is a bullish put spread. The likely initiator sold the higher-strike put and bought the lower-strike put, collecting a credit. It earns its full expiration profit if SMH stays at or above the short strike, so a rally is not required: flat prices or a modest decline can also work. The lower-strike put caps the loss in a much deeper selloff, but the wide gap between strikes leaves substantial downside risk. Opening versus closing is unconfirmed; the payoff and exposure shown here assume the spread was opened in this direction.
The evidence. Both legs carry the same timestamp, quantity, exchange and spread label. The higher-strike put printed at its bid and the combined package printed close to its implied bid, supporting a seller-initiated read. This is an inference from the displayed quotes, not confirmation of direction or opening status. The screenshot clock is interpreted as Pacific time and converted to Eastern for the log. The order filled 6% of the way from the price at which the read's initiator crosses the whole quote (+$5.88M) to the price at which they are paid it (+$6.20M): below the midpoint, which supports the read.
The other read. A holder of an existing bearish put spread sold it to close, taking off downside protection or a bearish bet. That would not establish a new bullish position. The opposite initiator, buying the bearish spread, is also possible because the tape does not identify who initiated the package. Subsequent open-interest changes may help assess opening versus closing, but cannot isolate this order from other trading at the same strikes.
Scenarios to the Nov 20 expiry
Where SMH would end if it moved evenly to each level by Nov 20, 2026, and what the position would make or lose there. The solid line is the breakeven.
SMH at expiry: the price and what the position makes or loses
Closes through Oct 26 · scenarios to Nov 20SMH at expiry: the price and what the position makes or loses
Closes through Oct 26 · scenarios to Nov 20| SMH by Nov 20 | SMH | Position at expiry |
|---|---|---|
| −15% | $452.75 | −$24.34M |
| −10% | $479.38 | −$7.29M |
| −5% | $506.02 | +$5.90M |
| flat | $532.65 | +$5.90M |
| +5% | $559.28 | +$5.90M |
| +10% | $585.92 | +$5.90M |
| +15% | $612.55 | +$5.90M |
What the position makes or loses
Breakeven at the Nov 20 expiry: SMH at $490.78 (−7.9% from entry). The most it can make at expiry is $5.90M. Behaves like long 150,784 SMH shares ($80.32M).
Profit or loss of the open position against what it was opened for, across SMH prices from $372.00 to $612.55. The second axis is the move from the trade's price. Black-Scholes on each leg's implied volatility at the fed funds rate.
The money behind it
Estimates under Cboe's published rules. A short option covered by a long one is charged the spread's width (nothing for a debit spread); an uncovered one is charged its value plus 20% of SMH's price, less any out-of-the-money amount, with a floor. Portfolio margin is the worst loss of the whole position within its price range, which ignores moves beyond it: a tail the standard figure prices and portfolio margin does not. Brokers can require more, and an account holding offsetting positions less.
Since the trade
First mark on Oct 26, 2026: +$1.07M. The chart starts with the second session.
Source
Options time and sales from a U.S. brokerage's trading platform, entered by hand. Marks from daily option bars; the closing price from our price files. Page data as of Oct 26, 2026. All bets →
Now short 6,400 Nov 20 500 puts, long 6,400 Nov 20 400 puts: bullish on SMH if this is a new position.
- Money behind it
- $80.32Mlong SMH, the position's share-equivalent
- Potential profit
- +$5.90Mif SMH ends at or above $500.00 on Nov 20; +$5.90M if SMH ends flat
- Max risk
- −$58.10Mif SMH ends at or below $400.00 on Nov 20
- Capital behind it
- $64.00M$64.00M standard margin · $22.38M portfolio margin
- Return, 25 days
- up to 9%9% max, 9% if flat, on standard margin
- Breakeven
- $490.78−7.9% from $532.65
- The trade
- $6.96Mpremium across 12,800 contracts; +$5.90M net cash received
Side read from the fill, not reported by the tape. Computed from the logged prints. Not advice.