XP collar: a large holder hedged through the end of October
Logged Oct 20, 2026 at 11:16 ET with XP at $31.02. The position it leaves is long 1,200,000 XP shares (assumed), long 12,000 Oct 30 25 puts, short 12,000 Oct 30 36 calls, protection for a large XP stake through the end of October, giving up gains above the call: the prints, what most likely happened, scenarios to expiry and the payoff follow.
Now long 1,200,000 XP shares (assumed), long 12,000 Oct 30 25 puts, short 12,000 Oct 30 36 calls: protection for a large XP stake through the end of October, giving up gains above the call.
- Money behind it
- $20.93Mlong XP, the position's share-equivalent
- Potential profit
- +$5.62Mif XP ends at or above $36.00 on Oct 30; −$360K if XP ends flat
- Max risk
- −$7.58Mif XP ends at or below $25.00 on Oct 30
- Capital behind it
- $37.58M$37.58M assumed shares plus premium
- Return, 10 days
- up to 15%15% max, -1% if flat, on assumed shares plus premium
- Breakeven
- $31.32+1.0% from $31.02
- The trade
- $2.28Mpremium across 24,000 contracts; −$360K net cash paid
Side read from the fill, not reported by the tape. Computed from the logged prints. Not advice.
The trade
Bought the Oct 30 25 put and sold the Oct 30 36 call, same size, same second, on PHLX.
| Time (ET) | Option | Qty | Price | Exchange | Market | Delta | IV | XP | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11:16:57 | Oct 30 25 put | 12,000 | 1.10 | PHLX | 0.95 × 1.25 | −0.19 | 178.4% | 31.02 | Bought to open |
| 11:16:57 | Oct 30 36 call | 12,000 | 0.80 | PHLX | 0.75 × 1.75 | 0.25 | 115.4% | 31.02 | Sold to open |
| Assumed | XP shares | 1,200,000 | 31.02 | Not on the tape: the shares this most likely protects | |||||
| Total | Oct 30 25 put | 12,000 | 1.10 | PHLX | 0.95 × 1.25 | -0.19 | 178.4% | $1.32M premium | |
| Total | Oct 30 36 call | 12,000 | 0.80 | PHLX | 0.75 × 1.75 | 0.25 | 115.4% | $960K premium | |
Every print of the order as it crossed the tape, in the time-and-sales layout. Prices in green printed at the ask, in red at the bid. Delta and implied volatility are solved from each print's own price against XP at $31.02 (Black-Scholes, fed funds, no dividend), so they differ slightly from a broker's. Totals weight price and quote by size. "Read" is our reading of the side, explained next.
What most likely happened
At 11:16 ET, 12,000 Oct 30 25 puts and 12,000 Oct 30 36 calls traded together in one order on PHLX, the same size on every leg: one trader, one decision.
Leaning read. A put below the market bought and a call above it sold, the same size in the same second: a collar. On its own that pair is a bearish bet, but a collar is what a large holder buys to protect shares: the put sets a floor, the sold call pays for most of it and caps the gain. The page assumes the shares the collar covers so the payoff shows what the holder ends up with. XP's options this close to expiry price an unusually large move, and the collar runs exactly through that window, which is why it reads as insurance before an event rather than a view on the stock.
The evidence. The put printed at its midpoint and the call near its bid, which fits a seller of the call; the two legs trading the same size in the same second is what marks them as one position. The order filled 15% of the way from the price at which the read's initiator crosses the whole quote (−$600K) to the price at which they are paid it (+$960K): below the midpoint, which supports the read.
The other read. A trader with no shares bought the put and sold the call as a bearish bet, or the opposite pair was traded as a bullish one; with the put at its midpoint and the call near its bid, the prints do not settle the side.
Scenarios to the Oct 30 expiry
Where XP would end if it moved evenly to each level by Oct 30, 2026, and what the position would make or lose there. The solid line is the breakeven.
XP at expiry: the price and what the position makes or loses
Closes through Oct 20 · scenarios to Oct 30XP at expiry: the price and what the position makes or loses
Closes through Oct 20 · scenarios to Oct 30| XP by Oct 30 | XP | Position at expiry |
|---|---|---|
| −15% | $26.37 | −$5.94M |
| −10% | $27.92 | −$4.08M |
| −5% | $29.47 | −$2.22M |
| flat | $31.02 | −$360K |
| +5% | $32.57 | +$1.50M |
| +10% | $34.12 | +$3.36M |
| +15% | $35.67 | +$5.22M |
What the position makes or loses
Breakeven at the Oct 30 expiry: XP at $31.32 (+1.0% from entry). The most it can make at expiry is $5.62M. Behaves like long 674,880 XP shares ($20.93M).
Profit or loss of the open position against what it was opened for, across XP prices from $23.25 to $38.52. The second axis is the move from the trade's price. Black-Scholes on each leg's implied volatility at the fed funds rate.
Since the trade
First mark on Oct 20, 2026: +$504K. The chart starts with the second session.
Source
Options time and sales from a U.S. brokerage's trading platform, entered by hand. Marks from daily option bars; the closing price from our price files. Page data as of Oct 20, 2026. All bets →
Now long 1,200,000 XP shares (assumed), long 12,000 Oct 30 25 puts, short 12,000 Oct 30 36 calls: protection for a large XP stake through the end of October, giving up gains above the call.
- Money behind it
- $20.93Mlong XP, the position's share-equivalent
- Potential profit
- +$5.62Mif XP ends at or above $36.00 on Oct 30; −$360K if XP ends flat
- Max risk
- −$7.58Mif XP ends at or below $25.00 on Oct 30
- Capital behind it
- $37.58M$37.58M assumed shares plus premium
- Return, 10 days
- up to 15%15% max, -1% if flat, on assumed shares plus premium
- Breakeven
- $31.32+1.0% from $31.02
- The trade
- $2.28Mpremium across 24,000 contracts; −$360K net cash paid
Side read from the fill, not reported by the tape. Computed from the logged prints. Not advice.