Yield Curve (10Y−2Y & 10Y−3M)
The yield curve spread is the difference between long- and short-maturity Treasury yields — here the 10-year minus 2-year and the 10-year minus 3-month. A positive spread (long yields above short) is the normal shape; a negative spread ("inversion") means markets expect rate cuts ahead, historically because a recession forces them.
Latest reading
As of July 21, 2026, Yield Curve (10Y − 2Y spread) stands at 0.37pp — down from 0.39pp the prior reading. Inversion (below zero) has preceded every US recession since the 1970s, typically by 6–24 months, with the 10Y−3M version the academically preferred signal. The trap: the recession usually starts AFTER the curve re-steepens, not while it's inverted — un-inversion driven by short-end cuts is the late-cycle tell, not the all-clear. Series history runs from 1976 to present.
Sources, methodology & freshnessLast updated 2026-07-21 · Open ↓Close ↑
10Y − 2Y spread
Next release: Jul 22, 2026
Full history
Methodology & data
Yield Curve is sourced from Fed via the Federal Reserve's FRED service (Federal Reserve via FRED (T10Y2Y, T10Y3M), daily). We pull the complete history, chart it on a daily basis, overlay SPY for context, and generate a dated plain-English reading from the latest release — with no smoothing or adjustment beyond what the chart legend states.
Every reading is stamped with its release date, last updated 2026-07-21. Maintained and reviewed by Yuriy Matso; see our methodology for the standards every series on the site is held to.
Frequently asked questions
What is the Yield Curve (10Y−2Y & 10Y−3M)?
The yield curve spread is the difference between long- and short-maturity Treasury yields — here the 10-year minus 2-year and the 10-year minus 3-month. A positive spread (long yields above short) is the normal shape; a negative spread ("inversion") means markets expect rate cuts ahead, historically because a recession forces them.
How do you read Yield Curve?
Inversion (below zero) has preceded every US recession since the 1970s, typically by 6–24 months, with the 10Y−3M version the academically preferred signal. The trap: the recession usually starts AFTER the curve re-steepens, not while it's inverted — un-inversion driven by short-end cuts is the late-cycle tell, not the all-clear.
Where does the Yield Curve data come from?
Federal Reserve via FRED (T10Y2Y, T10Y3M), daily. We chart the full history and publish a dated, plain-English reading with every release; the raw series is downloadable as CSV at /data/indicators/yield-curve.csv.
How often is Yield Curve updated?
Yield Curve is a daily series from Fed, refreshed here as soon as a new release posts to FRED.
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