Yield Curve (10Y−2Y & 10Y−3M)
The yield curve spread is the difference between long- and short-maturity Treasury yields — here the 10-year minus 2-year and the 10-year minus 3-month. A positive spread (long yields above short) is the normal shape; a negative spread ("inversion") means markets expect rate cuts ahead, historically because a recession forces them.
10Y − 2Y spread
Next release: Sep 8, 2026
Latest reading
No — as of September 4, 2026 the yield curve is not inverted: the 10-year Treasury yields 0.41pp more than the 2-year. As of September 4, 2026, Yield Curve (10Y − 2Y spread) stands at 0.41pp — down from 0.43pp the prior reading. Inversion (below zero) has preceded every US recession since the 1970s, typically by 6–24 months, with the 10Y−3M version the academically preferred signal. The trap: the recession usually starts AFTER the curve re-steepens, not while it's inverted — un-inversion driven by short-end cuts is the late-cycle tell. It is not an all-clear. Series history runs from 1976 to present.
Sources, methodology & freshnessLast updated 2026-09-04 · Open ↓Close ↑
Full history
Methodology & data
Yield Curve is sourced from Fed via the Federal Reserve's FRED service (Federal Reserve via FRED (T10Y2Y, T10Y3M), daily). We pull the complete history, chart it on a daily basis, overlay SPY for context, and generate a dated plain-English reading from the latest release — with no smoothing or adjustment beyond what the chart legend states.
Every reading is stamped with its release date, last updated 2026-09-04. Maintained and reviewed by Yuriy Matso; see our methodology for the standards every series on the site is held to.
The Manual — the yield curve
The 10Y−2Y spread sits at +0.41pp, un-inverted — 25 months past the end of the 2022–24 inversion, the longest on record (537 trading days) and so far the first long one with no recession. The full owner's guide computes every inversion cycle since 1976 — depth, duration, and the 10-to-23-month leads before past recessions — plus the un-inversion trap most coverage misses.
Read The Yield Curve Manual →Frequently asked questions
What is the Yield Curve (10Y−2Y & 10Y−3M)?
The yield curve spread is the difference between long- and short-maturity Treasury yields — here the 10-year minus 2-year and the 10-year minus 3-month. A positive spread (long yields above short) is the normal shape; a negative spread ("inversion") means markets expect rate cuts ahead, historically because a recession forces them.
How do you read Yield Curve?
Inversion (below zero) has preceded every US recession since the 1970s, typically by 6–24 months, with the 10Y−3M version the academically preferred signal. The trap: the recession usually starts AFTER the curve re-steepens, not while it's inverted — un-inversion driven by short-end cuts is the late-cycle tell. It is not an all-clear.
Where does the Yield Curve data come from?
Federal Reserve via FRED (T10Y2Y, T10Y3M), daily. We chart the full history and publish a dated, plain-English reading with every release; the raw series is downloadable as CSV at /data/indicators/yield-curve.csv.
How often is Yield Curve updated?
Yield Curve is a daily series from Fed, refreshed here as soon as a new release posts to FRED.
10Y − 2Y spread
Next release: Sep 8, 2026