Yield Curve (10Y−2Y & 10Y−3M)
The yield curve spread is the difference between long- and short-maturity Treasury yields — here the 10-year minus 2-year and the 10-year minus 3-month. A positive spread (long yields above short) is the normal shape; a negative spread ("inversion") means markets expect rate cuts ahead, historically because a recession forces them.
10Y − 2Y spread
Latest reading
No — as of October 16, 2026 the yield curve is not inverted: the 10-year Treasury yields 0.35pp more than the 2-year, and the 10Y−3M spread is +0.83pp. The prior reading was 0.33pp. Inversion (below zero) has preceded every US recession since the 1970s, with leads of 6 to 24 months from the first 10Y−2Y inversion to the recession's start; the 10Y−3M version is the academically preferred signal. Not every inversion was followed by one: no recession followed the 1998 inversion (27 trading days) and the 2022–24 inversion (537 trading days, the longest on record). The trap: the recession usually starts AFTER the curve re-steepens, not while it's inverted — un-inversion driven by short-end cuts is the late-cycle tell. It is not an all-clear. Series history runs from 1976 to present.
Sources, methodology & freshnessFederal Reserve via FRED (T10Y2Y, T10Y3M), daily · Daily, with every releaseData as of 2026-10-16 · Open ↓Close ↑
Full history
Methodology & data
Yield Curve is sourced from Fed via the Federal Reserve's FRED service (Federal Reserve via FRED (T10Y2Y, T10Y3M), daily). We pull the complete history, chart it on a daily basis, overlay SPY for context, and generate a dated plain-English reading from the latest release — with no smoothing or adjustment beyond what the chart legend states.
Readings are dated by the period they cover. Latest observation 2026-10-16; site refreshed 2026-10-19. Maintained and reviewed by Yuriy Matso; see our methodology for the standards every series on the site is held to.
The Manual — the yield curve
The 10Y−2Y spread sits at +0.35pp and the 10Y−3M at +0.83pp, un-inverted — 26 months past the end of the 2022–24 inversion, the longest on record (537 trading days), which no recession has followed. The full owner's guide computes every inversion cycle since 1976 — depth, duration, and the 6-to-24-month leads before past recessions — plus the un-inversion trap most coverage misses.
Read The Yield Curve Manual →Frequently asked questions
What is the Yield Curve (10Y−2Y & 10Y−3M)?
The yield curve spread is the difference between long- and short-maturity Treasury yields — here the 10-year minus 2-year and the 10-year minus 3-month. A positive spread (long yields above short) is the normal shape; a negative spread ("inversion") means markets expect rate cuts ahead, historically because a recession forces them.
How do you read Yield Curve?
Inversion (below zero) has preceded every US recession since the 1970s, with leads of 6 to 24 months from the first 10Y−2Y inversion to the recession's start; the 10Y−3M version is the academically preferred signal. Not every inversion was followed by one: no recession followed the 1998 inversion (27 trading days) and the 2022–24 inversion (537 trading days, the longest on record). The trap: the recession usually starts AFTER the curve re-steepens, not while it's inverted — un-inversion driven by short-end cuts is the late-cycle tell. It is not an all-clear.
Where does the Yield Curve data come from?
Federal Reserve via FRED (T10Y2Y, T10Y3M), daily. We chart the full history and publish a dated, plain-English reading with every release; the raw series is downloadable as CSV at /data/indicators/yield-curve.csv.
How often is Yield Curve updated?
Yield Curve is a daily series from Fed, refreshed here as soon as a new release posts to FRED.
10Y − 2Y spread