NYSE TICK: Session Bias & Extreme Prints
The TICK index — NYSE stocks upticking minus downticking — summarized per session since 1997: the day's bias, its ±1000 extreme prints, and an era-proof five-state read with the forward-return base rates behind each state. The base rates are contrarian: washouts bounced, euphoria went flat.
Today's reading
As of the July 2, 2026 close, the NYSE TICK session read Balanced: average bias -10 (z -0.3 vs the trailing year), with no ±1000 extreme prints. Session extremes: +950 high, -787 low. Since 1998, balanced sessions preceded +0.62% average SPY returns over the next 21 sessions vs +0.69% for all sessions.
Since 1998, balanced sessions preceded +0.62% avg SPY returns over the next 21 sessions (63% positive) vs +0.69% baseline — 2,734 cases. Context, not a forecast.
Session bias vs its own era
Each session's average TICK (blue) against its rolling one-year mean and ±1.5σ band (gray). The band IS the era adjustment — what counts as a washout or euphoric session moves with the market's structure, which is why raw TICK levels from different decades can't be compared directly.
What followed each state — full history
Forward SPY returns from every session in each z-score state since 1998. The shape is the familiar contrarian U: washout sessions preceded the best average returns and euphoric sessions the worst — panic prints marked exhaustion, not acceleration.
| State | % of days | Next 5 sessions | Next 10 sessions | Next 21 sessions | N |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washout | 8% | +0.31% · 58%↑ | +0.52% · 59%↑ | +1.10% · 63%↑ | 563 |
| Bearish tilt | 21% | +0.30% · 59%↑ | +0.42% · 60%↑ | +0.70% · 62%↑ | 1,447 |
| Balancednow | 39% | +0.10% · 56%↑ | +0.28% · 60%↑ | +0.62% · 63%↑ | 2,734 |
| Bullish tilt | 27% | +0.14% · 58%↑ | +0.34% · 61%↑ | +0.77% · 65%↑ | 1,930 |
| Euphoric | 5% | -0.01% · 58%↑ | +0.02% · 62%↑ | +0.23% · 60%↑ | 371 |
| All sessions (baseline) | 100% | +0.17% · 57%↑ | +0.33% · 60%↑ | +0.69% · 63%↑ | 7,045 |
Forward returns on SPY closes. States use the rolling one-year z-score of the session bias, so they are era-comparable. Overlapping windows — descriptive tendencies, not signals.
Extreme-print days — modern era (2010+)
The sharper cut: days when ±1000 prints actually hit the tape, in the structurally stable 2010+ era. Heavy washout days (10+ −1000 prints) preceded roughly 2.5x the baseline return over the following week; surge-heavy days were flat short-term.
| State | % of days | Next 5 sessions | Next 10 sessions | Next 21 sessions | N |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washout day (5+ −1000 prints) | 13% | +0.39% · 61%↑ | +0.58% · 61%↑ | +1.44% · 66%↑ | 527 |
| Heavy washout (10+ −1000 prints) | 4% | +0.65% · 62%↑ | +0.54% · 60%↑ | +1.62% · 67%↑ | 181 |
| Surge day (5+ +1000 prints) | 8% | +0.03% · 53%↑ | +0.28% · 59%↑ | +1.30% · 65%↑ | 328 |
| No extreme prints | 38% | +0.19% · 61%↑ | +0.35% · 64%↑ | +0.71% · 66%↑ | 1,584 |
| All 2010+ sessions (baseline) | 100% | +0.25% · 61%↑ | +0.50% · 64%↑ | +1.06% · 67%↑ | 4,156 |
±1000 counts are 5-minute bars whose high/low reached the threshold. Restricted to 2010+ where the print-frequency regime is stable. Overlapping windows — base rates, not signals.
How NYSE TICK Works
- 1What TICK isThe NYSE TICK index is the number of NYSE stocks whose last trade was an uptick minus those on a downtick, printed continuously through the session. Readings near zero are two-way trade; big positive or negative prints mean program-driven, market-wide buying or selling hitting hundreds of stocks at once.
- 2Aggregate each sessionFrom 5-minute TICK bars (1997–present) we compute each session's BIAS — the average TICK reading, i.e. which way the tape leaned all day — and its EXTREME PRINTS: bars whose high reached +1000 (surge prints) or whose low reached −1000 (washout prints).
- 3Make it comparable across erasTICK's distribution has drifted hugely over three decades — the pre-2001 bias was persistently negative, 2001–2007 strongly positive, the modern era mild. So the state uses a rolling 252-session z-score of the bias: today versus the last year of itself, not versus 1998.
- 4Classify the state — and attach base ratesFive states by z: Washout (≤ −1.5), Bearish tilt, Balanced, Bullish tilt, Euphoric (≥ +1.5). For each, we show what SPY actually did over the following 5, 10 and 21 sessions — plus a second study on extreme-print days in the stable 2010+ era. Both are contrarian.