Real Yields (10-Year TIPS Yield)
The real yield is the market yield on the 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Security (TIPS): what a 10-year Treasury pays after inflation, because the bond's principal rises with the consumer price index. It equals the nominal 10-year yield less the 10-year breakeven inflation rate, give or take a small liquidity difference. The Treasury has issued TIPS since 1997; this constant-maturity series starts in 2003.
10-year TIPS yield
Next release: Oct 6, 2026
Latest reading
As of October 2, 2026, Real Yields (10-year TIPS yield) stands at 2.92% — up from 2.88% the prior reading, 0.23 pp below the November 21, 2008 record of 3.15%. A higher real yield raises the cost of holding anything that pays no income, which is why it is the variable most often tied to gold, and it raises the discount rate on long-duration stocks. Negative real yields, as in 2011–13 and 2020–22, mean cash and bonds lose to inflation. Read it beside the nominal 10-year yield and inflation expectations: a real yield can rise because nominal yields climb or because expected inflation falls, and the two say different things about the economy. Series history runs from 2003 to present.
Sources, methodology & freshnessBoard of Governors of the Federal Reserve via FRED (DFII10), daily, market yield on 10-year TIPS, constant maturity · Daily, with every releaseData as of 2026-10-02 · Open ↓Close ↑
Full history
Real yields and gold: has the link held?
Gold pays nothing, so the real yield is what an investor gives up to hold it, and for most of this record the two moved in opposite directions. From 2003–2021 the correlation between the real yield and the gold price (in logs) was −0.84. Since 2022 it has been +0.52: the real yield went from −1.04% at the end of 2021 to +1.72% at gold’s weekly high (February 27, 2026), and gold still rose from $1,829 to $5,248.
The week-to-week link is weaker but has not changed sign: the correlation of weekly changes was −0.30 before 2022 and −0.25 since. A rise in real yields in a given week still tends to come with a softer gold price. In the latest week the real yield stood at +2.92% and gold at $4,162.
| Period | Levels | Weekly changes | Weeks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2003–2021 | −0.84 | −0.30 | 992 |
| 2022–2026 | +0.52 | −0.25 | 248 |
| 2003–2026, whole record | −0.32 | −0.29 | 1240 |
The live gold price, its record and every 20% decline are on the gold price page.
Methodology & data
Real Yields is sourced from Fed via the Federal Reserve's FRED service (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve via FRED (DFII10), daily, market yield on 10-year TIPS, constant maturity). We pull the complete history, chart it on a daily basis, overlay SPY for context, and generate a dated plain-English reading from the latest release — with no smoothing or adjustment beyond what the chart legend states.
Readings are dated by the period they cover. Latest observation 2026-10-02; site refreshed 2026-10-05. Maintained and reviewed by Yuriy Matso; see our methodology for the standards every series on the site is held to.
Frequently asked questions
What is the Real Yields (10-Year TIPS Yield)?
The real yield is the market yield on the 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Security (TIPS): what a 10-year Treasury pays after inflation, because the bond's principal rises with the consumer price index. It equals the nominal 10-year yield less the 10-year breakeven inflation rate, give or take a small liquidity difference. The Treasury has issued TIPS since 1997; this constant-maturity series starts in 2003.
How do you read Real Yields?
A higher real yield raises the cost of holding anything that pays no income, which is why it is the variable most often tied to gold, and it raises the discount rate on long-duration stocks. Negative real yields, as in 2011–13 and 2020–22, mean cash and bonds lose to inflation. Read it beside the nominal 10-year yield and inflation expectations: a real yield can rise because nominal yields climb or because expected inflation falls, and the two say different things about the economy.
Where does the Real Yields data come from?
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve via FRED (DFII10), daily, market yield on 10-year TIPS, constant maturity. We chart the full history and publish a dated, plain-English reading with every release; the raw series is downloadable as CSV at /data/indicators/real-yields.csv.
How often is Real Yields updated?
Real Yields is a daily series from Fed, refreshed here as soon as a new release posts to FRED.
10-year TIPS yield
Next release: Oct 6, 2026