TapeUpdated daily after close · as of 2026-10-07

Bull vs Bear Power: ES & NQ Intraday Session Dominance

Who controlled the regular session — bulls or bears? We sum every 5-minute candle body in the 8:30–3:00 CT cash session for ES and NQ futures and measure the share won by up-candles, with a 30-session moving average for direction.

MarketNasdaq-100 (NQ)

Today's reading · NQ

As of the October 7, 2026 close, Nasdaq-100 (NQ) leaned bullish: up-candles contributed 57.8% of total 5-minute candle-body movement (1.37× as much green body as red). That daily reading ranks at the 81st percentile of 4,468 sessions since 2009. The 30-session average is 52.5%, up from the prior session and at the 90th percentile of its available history. Both NQ and ES finished on the bull side of 50%, so the one-day control was broad across the two index futures. This describes the tape; it does not forecast the next session.

Sources, methodology & freshnessES & NQ continuous 5-minute bars from TradeStation, regular cash session only (2009–present) · Daily after US market close (~1pm PT)Data as of 2026-10-07 · Open ↓

Source

ES & NQ continuous 5-minute bars from TradeStation, regular cash session only (2009–present)

Methodology

Sum green vs red 5-min candle bodies per session; bull share % = green ÷ (green+red); 30-session moving average for direction

Updates

Daily after US market close (~1pm PT)Data as of 2026-10-07

Maintained & reviewed by Yuriy Matso — methodology shown on the page.

Bull share · NQ2026-10-07 · session

57.8%

1.37×

bull / bear

Up-candles did more of the work — bulls controlled the session body.

30-sess avg

52.5%

▲ vs prior · 90th pct

Daily percentile

81st

of 4,468 sessions

Last 10

5–5

bull / bear sessions

573 pts of up-body vs 418 down across 78 five-minute candles. Current bull control streak: 1 session; long-run bull-share baseline 50.9%.

Nasdaq-100 (NQ) price is on top; below it is the 30-session moving average of bull share. Shaded regime bands measure distance from the 50% standoff: bull and strong bull above, bear and strong bear below. Band edges are ±1 historical standard deviation of the moving average. Toggle daily sessions to reveal the noisy observations beneath the trend.

Window return

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MA change

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Sessions

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Window:loading history…

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Is control broad or tech-led?

Compare the smoothed ES and NQ readings on the same scale. When both sit on the same side of 50%, intraday control is broad across the two major index futures. A split separates broad-market strength from Nasdaq leadership and keeps one instrument from being mistaken for the whole tape.

Current 30-session read

Broad bull control

ES 50.3% · NQ 52.5% · NQ−ES +2.2 pts

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Intraday tape — the last sessions, 5-minute (NQ)

The raw tape the daily aggregates are built from: every regular-cash-session 5-minute candle of Nasdaq-100 (NQ), with each bar's body plotted underneath — the exact quantity the bull/bear sums add up. Pick how many sessions to show; the data refreshes with the daily update after each close.

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Bull share · NQ2026-10-07 · session

57.8%

1.37×

bull / bear

Up-candles did more of the work — bulls controlled the session body.

30-sess avg

52.5%

▲ vs prior · 90th pct

Daily percentile

81st

of 4,468 sessions

Last 10

5–5

bull / bear sessions

573 pts of up-body vs 418 down across 78 five-minute candles. Current bull control streak: 1 session; long-run bull-share baseline 50.9%.

How Bull vs Bear Power Works

1
Take every 5-minute candle in the regular session
We pull 5-minute bars for the ES and NQ continuous futures and keep only the regular cash session — 8:30 AM to 3:00 PM Central (9:30–4:00 Eastern), 78 candles on a normal day.
2
Measure each candle's body
For every candle the body is close minus open. A green candle (close above open) is bull effort; a red candle (close below open) is bear effort. We sum all the green bodies and, separately, all the red bodies for the session.
3
Compute the bull share and ratio
Bull share % = green body sum ÷ (green + red), so 50% is a perfect standoff, above 50% means up-candles did more of the work, below 50% means down-candles dominated. We also show it as a ratio (green ÷ red, where 1.0 is balanced).
4
Smooth it with a 30-session moving average
A single session is noisy, so we plot a 30-session moving average of the bull share. Its level and slope show the prevailing intraday tilt — whether bulls or bears have been winning the body battle over the last six weeks, and whether that grip is strengthening or fading.

Who Uses Bull vs Bear Power

Day Traders

Describe the recent session character. A run of high-bull-share days means up-candles contributed more body movement; a falling average says that internal tilt is becoming less positive.

Futures Traders

Built on the instruments you actually trade — ES and NQ — using the regular cash session only, with overnight trade excluded. Compare the S&P and Nasdaq tape side by side.

Swing Traders

Use the price panel and bull-share average as a divergence check. Price can rise while the balance of intraday candle bodies becomes less positive, a descriptive change worth investigating rather than a standalone reversal signal.

Systematic Traders

A clean, decades-long series (2009+) of session body dominance to test against forward returns, regime filters or volatility states.

Pro Tips

Start with the 30-session line

One session can swing widely. The moving average is the stable context: holding above 50 means up-candle bodies have contributed more over the window; below 50 means down-candle bodies have.

50% is the line that matters

The all-history average sits a hair above 50 — the market's gentle upward drift. Readings well above or below that baseline are what stand out; the raw level on its own says little.

It confirms, it doesn't predict

Body dominance is descriptive — it tracks the trend it measures. Use it to characterize the current tape and to spot divergences from price, not as a standalone entry trigger.

Compare ES vs NQ

When NQ's bull share runs well ahead of ES, large-cap tech is carrying the session character; when it lags, the leadership has shifted. The toggle makes the spread easy to eyeball.

Common Issues & Solutions

Why does the share hover so close to 50%?▾

Because over a full session green and red bodies are usually close to balanced — that is the nature of two-sided auction. Small, persistent tilts away from 50 are meaningful precisely because the baseline is so stable.

Is this the same as how much the market went up?▾

No. A session can close up while bear bodies were larger (a few sharp red candles), or close down on balanced bodies. Bull share measures who did the work inside the session. The net close-to-close change is a separate question.

Why futures (ES/NQ) instead of SPY/QQQ?▾

Futures are the deepest, most liquid intraday instruments and what most active index traders use. We still restrict to the regular cash session so the reading is comparable to a stock-market day.

What about half-days?▾

Early-close sessions (the day after Thanksgiving, Christmas Eve, etc.) have fewer candles but the share and ratio are still valid since they are normalized — they are included as real sessions.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is bull vs bear power?▾

It describes which candle direction contributed more body movement during a trading session by summing the bodies (close minus open) of every 5-minute candle. The share from up-candles is the bull share: 50% is balanced, above 50% means green bodies contributed more, and below 50% means red bodies did.

How is the bull share calculated?▾

For each 5-minute candle in the 8:30–3:00 CT regular session we take the body (close − open). Green bodies are summed into a bull total and red bodies into a bear total. Bull share % = bull total ÷ (bull total + bear total) × 100. The ratio version is bull total ÷ bear total.

What does the 30-session moving average show?▾

It smooths out daily noise to reveal the prevailing intraday tilt over roughly six weeks. A 30-session average holding above 50 means up-candles have persistently dominated; below 50 means down-candles have. A rising line means the bull grip is strengthening, a falling line that it is fading.

Which instruments does it cover?▾

ES (E-mini S&P 500) and NQ (E-mini Nasdaq-100) continuous futures, using only the regular cash session. Toggle between them to compare the broad market and large-cap tech.

Can I trade off this directly?▾

It is best used as context. It is not a trigger. Body dominance is descriptive — it tracks the trend it measures — so its value is in characterizing the current tape and flagging divergences from price, alongside your other tools.

How far back does the data go?▾

Both series start in 2009, giving more than 15 years of regular-session history, and update after every US market close.