Bull vs Bear Power: ES & NQ Intraday Session Dominance
Who controlled the regular session — bulls or bears? We sum every 5-minute candle body in the 8:30–3:00 CT cash session for ES and NQ futures and measure the share won by up-candles, with a 30-session moving average for direction.
Today's reading · NQ
As of the August 21, 2026 close, Nasdaq-100 (NQ) leaned bearish: up-candles contributed 48.1% of total 5-minute candle-body movement (0.93× as much green body as red). That daily reading ranks at the 37th percentile of 4,435 sessions since 2009. The 30-session average is 49.2%, down from the prior session and at the 9th percentile of its available history. NQ and ES split across 50%, so session control was not broad across the two index futures. This describes the tape; it does not forecast the next session.
Sources, methodology & freshnessLast updated 2026-08-21 · Open ↓Close ↑
Down-candles did more of the work — bears controlled the session body.
589 pts of up-body vs 637 down across 78 five-minute candles. Current bear control streak: 6 sessions; long-run bull-share baseline 50.9%.
Price vs bull share — Nasdaq-100 (NQ)
Nasdaq-100 (NQ) price is on top; below it is the 30-session moving average of bull share. Shaded regime bands measure distance from the 50% standoff: bull and strong bull above, bear and strong bear below. Band edges are ±1 historical standard deviation of the moving average. Toggle daily sessions to reveal the noisy observations beneath the trend.
Is control broad or tech-led?
Compare the smoothed ES and NQ readings on the same scale. When both sit on the same side of 50%, intraday control is broad across the two major index futures. A split separates broad-market strength from Nasdaq leadership and keeps one instrument from being mistaken for the whole tape.
Intraday tape — the last sessions, 5-minute (NQ)
The raw tape the daily aggregates are built from: every regular-cash-session 5-minute candle of Nasdaq-100 (NQ), with each bar's body plotted underneath — the exact quantity the bull/bear sums add up. Pick how many sessions to show; the data refreshes with the daily update after each close.
Down-candles did more of the work — bears controlled the session body.
589 pts of up-body vs 637 down across 78 five-minute candles. Current bear control streak: 6 sessions; long-run bull-share baseline 50.9%.
How Bull vs Bear Power Works
- 1Take every 5-minute candle in the regular sessionWe pull 5-minute bars for the ES and NQ continuous futures and keep only the regular cash session — 8:30 AM to 3:00 PM Central (9:30–4:00 Eastern), 78 candles on a normal day.
- 2Measure each candle's bodyFor every candle the body is close minus open. A green candle (close above open) is bull effort; a red candle (close below open) is bear effort. We sum all the green bodies and, separately, all the red bodies for the session.
- 3Compute the bull share and ratioBull share % = green body sum ÷ (green + red), so 50% is a perfect standoff, above 50% means up-candles did more of the work, below 50% means down-candles dominated. We also show it as a ratio (green ÷ red, where 1.0 is balanced).
- 4Smooth it with a 30-session moving averageA single session is noisy, so we plot a 30-session moving average of the bull share. Its level and slope show the prevailing intraday tilt — whether bulls or bears have been winning the body battle over the last six weeks, and whether that grip is strengthening or fading.