Day TradingUpdated daily after close · as of 2026-07-02
Session Momentum: Who Is Winning the Intraday Tape?
The bull share of all candle-body work over the last 10 regular sessions on ES and NQ futures, its momentum, and a four-regime read — with the forward-return base rates behind each regime since 2009. Fair warning: the base rates are contrarian. Swept tapes bounced; euphoric tapes cooled.
Today's reading
As of the July 2, 2026 close, the S&P 500 (ES) intraday tape reads Bulls strengthening: up-candles took 50.4% of the last 10 sessions' candle-body work (+3.2 pts vs five sessions ago), and bulls won 6 of the last 10 sessions. Since 2009, days in this regime averaged +0.68% over the next 21 sessions — below the +0.85% all-days baseline. The pattern is contrarian: swept tapes bounced, euphoric tapes cooled.
Source
ES & NQ continuous-futures 5-minute bars from TradeStation, regular cash session only (2009–present)
Methodology
Fast = bull share of candle-body work over trailing 10 sessions; momentum = fast vs 5 sessions ago; regime = level × momentum; forward returns per regime at 5/10/21 sessions
Updates
Daily after US market close (~1pm PT)Last: 2026-07-02
Maintained & reviewed by Yuriy Matso — methodology shown on the page.
Session momentumES · 2026-07-02 · 10-session
BULLS STRENGTHENING
10-session bull share 50.4% · +3.2 pts vs 5 sessions ago
Last 10 sessionsbulls won 6/10
Fast (10-sess)
50.4%
Slow (30-sess)
50.7%
Momentum
+3.2
Since 2009, bulls strengthening days on ES averaged +0.68% over the next 21 sessions (68% positive) vs a +0.85% baseline — 1,585 cases. Context, not a forecast.
Symbol:S&P 500 (ES)
01
10-session bull share — ES
Window:loading…
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10-session aggregate bull share30-session MA of daily share50% standoff
02
What followed each regime — ES
Average forward futures returns from every day in each regime since 2009. Read the last row first: bears strengthening — the state that feels most dangerous — preceded the best average forward returns, and bulls strengthening the worst. Overlapping windows; base rates, not signals.
| Regime | % of days | Next 5 sessions | Next 10 sessions | Next 21 sessions | N |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bulls strengtheningnow | 36% | +0.10% · 58%↑ | +0.24% · 63%↑ | +0.68% · 68%↑ | 1,585 |
| Bulls fading | 19% | +0.17% · 63%↑ | +0.45% · 67%↑ | +0.88% · 69%↑ | 825 |
| Bears fading | 15% | +0.18% · 60%↑ | +0.40% · 65%↑ | +0.70% · 68%↑ | 635 |
| Bears strengthening | 30% | +0.36% · 61%↑ | +0.58% · 63%↑ | +1.08% · 69%↑ | 1,324 |
| All days (baseline) | 100% | +0.20% · 60%↑ | +0.41% · 64%↑ | +0.85% · 69%↑ | 4,383 |
Forward returns on the continuous futures close. Consecutive days share regimes and forward windows overlap, so treat the averages as descriptive tendencies. Tail risk was NOT higher in the bearish regimes — the worst 21-session outcomes in the sample began from bullish tapes.
How Session Momentum Works
- 1Start from the session body battleLike our Bull vs Bear Power tool, every 5-minute candle body in the ES/NQ regular cash session is summed into green (bull effort) vs red (bear effort). Each session gets a bull share: green ÷ (green + red).
- 2Aggregate the last 10 sessionsThe fast line is the bull share of ALL candle-body work over the trailing 10 regular sessions — big sessions weigh more than quiet ones. That is "who has been winning recently," in one number around the 50% standoff line.
- 3Measure the momentumMomentum is the fast line today minus five sessions ago. Positive means the bulls' grip is building (or the bears' grip is slipping); negative means control is sliding toward the bears.
- 4Classify the regime — and attach the base ratesLevel × momentum gives four regimes: Bulls strengthening, Bulls fading, Bears fading, Bears strengthening. For each, we show what ES/NQ actually did over the following 5, 10 and 21 sessions since 2009 — and the pattern is contrarian, not confirming.
Who Uses Session Momentum
Day Traders
A regime read on the tape you actually trade. Bears-strengthening stretches were historically closer to short-term exhaustion than the start of worse — useful context before assuming the easy long is gone.
Swing Traders
The fast-vs-slow spread is an early rotation cue: the 10-session line rolling under the 30-session line shows the intraday grip changing before the daily chart makes it obvious.
Contrarians
This is base-rate fuel: since 2009, forward returns after bear-swept tapes beat the all-days baseline, and bull-euphoric tapes lagged it. The table quantifies the fade.
Systematic Traders
A clean, decades-long regime series (2009+) on cash-session candle bodies — test it as a filter against your entries instead of trusting the intuition either way.
Pro Tips
01
The finding is contrarian — respect it
The intuitive read ("bears gaining → be careful longs") is the one the data rejects. Since 2009, bears-strengthening days preceded ABOVE-baseline forward returns on both ES and NQ, and bulls-strengthening days below-baseline. On a rising index, swept tapes mark exhaustion more often than acceleration.
02
It contextualizes, it doesn't time
The effect is an average edge measured over thousands of overlapping windows, not a trigger. Use the regime to size and frame trades, not to fire them.
03
Watch regime flips, not wiggles
The fast line crossing 50, or its momentum flipping sign, changes the regime. Small oscillations inside a regime are noise — the classification is the signal.
04
Check ES vs NQ divergence
When NQ's tape reads bearish while ES holds bullish (or vice versa), leadership is splitting — pair it with Bull vs Bear Power and the Tech Volatility Spread for the full picture.
Common Issues & Solutions
How is this different from Bull vs Bear Power?▾
Same underlying data, different question. Bull vs Bear Power shows the level — each session's body share and a 30-session average. Session Momentum is the velocity read: an aggregate 10-session share, its 5-session momentum, a four-regime classification, and the forward-return study behind each regime.
Why does "bears strengthening" have the BEST forward returns?▾
The same reason our Hidden Bear regimes and Market Health bands are U-shaped: on a structurally rising index, stretches where bears dominate the intraday tape tend to be late in a washout, and they resolved upward more often and harder than average. Euphoric tapes, by contrast, had already spent their fuel.
Does a bearish regime mean tail risk is higher?▾
Historically, no. The worst 21-session outcomes in the sample (including the COVID crash) began from BULLISH tape regimes; dispersion across regimes is similar. Bears-strengthening was not the danger state the intuition suggests.
Why 10 sessions for the fast window?▾
Two trading weeks — long enough that a single wild session cannot flip the read, short enough to register a genuine change of control quickly. The 5-session momentum lookback marks one trading week of change.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Session Momentum?▾
A regime gauge for the intraday tape: the bull share of all 5-minute candle-body work over the trailing 10 regular sessions on ES and NQ futures, its 5-session momentum, and a four-regime classification (bulls/bears in control × strengthening/fading), each with forward-return base rates since 2009.
Is a bearish session regime a sell signal?▾
The data says the opposite, on average. Since 2009, days classified "bears strengthening" preceded above-baseline forward returns on both ES (+1.1% avg over the next 21 sessions vs +0.8% baseline) and NQ, while "bulls strengthening" preceded below-baseline returns. Swept tapes historically marked short-term exhaustion, not the start of something worse. Base rates, not advice.
How is the regime determined?▾
Two dimensions: level (10-session aggregate bull share above or below 50%) and momentum (that share versus five sessions ago, rising or falling). That yields Bulls strengthening, Bulls fading, Bears fading, and Bears strengthening.
What data is it built on?▾
Every 5-minute candle of the ES and NQ regular cash session (8:30–3:00 Central) from TradeStation, aggregated per session into green vs red body sums — the same feed as our Bull vs Bear Power tool, back to 2009.
How often is it updated?▾
Daily after the US close, when the day's intraday session is fetched and the regimes and forward-return tables recompute over the full history.
Explore Other Tools
Bull vs Bear Power
The level view — per-session body share with the 30-session average
Hidden Bear Index
The same contrarian U-shape at the market-breadth level
Intraday Momentum
How big the daily moves are running — the tape's energy level
Range Efficiency
Trend vs chop — whether moves are following through
Last updated: 2026-07-02