SentimentUpdated daily after close · as of 2026-09-25
Cash ETF Flows: Is Money Rushing Into Cash?
Net flows into 23 T-bill, floating-rate and ultra-short ETFs, the funds investors use as cash that still pays. The 13-week flow is scored against the same funds over the prior three years, so a spike means money is moving into cash faster than usual, which is what frightened investors do.
Today's reading
As of market close on September 25, 2026, the 23 cash ETFs we track took in $30.7 billion over the past 13 weeks. Against the prior three years that is a z-score of +1.31, a reading of elevated inflows, below the 2.5 line that marks an extreme rush into cash. The last extreme reading was April 17, 2026, at 2.52. After the 6 extremes since 2016, the S&P 500 was higher three months later 6 times out of 6, with a median gain of 6.3% against 4.2% for any session. That is a small sample.
Sources, methodology & freshnessLast updated 2026-09-25 · Open ↓Close ↑
Source
Shares outstanding (Massive) and closes for 23 T-bill, floating-rate and ultra-short ETFs, 2014+
Methodology
Weekly net flow = Δ shares × close; 13-week sum as a z-score vs the prior 156 weeks
Updates
Daily after market close (weekly series, provisional between Fridays)Last: 2026-09-25
Maintained & reviewed by Yuriy Matso — methodology shown on the page.
Cash ETF flows2026-09-25
+1.31
Elevated inflowsz-score of the 13-week net flow against the prior three years. 2.5 or more marks an extreme rush into cash.
13-week flow
+$30.7B
Fund assets
$366B
Last extreme
2026-04
Window:
01
Flows into cash vs the S&P 500
Each bar is one week's reading: the 13-week net flow into the 23 funds as a z-score against the prior 156 weeks. Red bars are extreme readings of 2.5 or more. SPY sits above on the same dates.
02
What happened after extreme rushes into cash?
Every week the reading first reached 2.5 since 2016, with a new episode allowed only 63 sessions after the last, against the S&P 500's return from every session in the same period. With only 6 episodes, treat this as a pattern to watch. It is too few to be a statistic.
| SPY after | Episodes | Median | Higher | Any session: median | Any session: higher |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | 6 | -0.6% | 3 of 6 | +1.7% | 69% |
| 3 months | 6 | +6.3% | 6 of 6 | +4.2% | 77% |
| 6 months | 5 | +11.4% | 5 of 5 | +7.7% | 80% |
| 12 months | 5 | +15.8% | 5 of 5 | +14.9% | 86% |
| Episode | Reading | 1 month | 3 months | 6 months | 12 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 10, 2026 | +2.86 | +8.8% | +10.3% | pending | pending |
| March 21, 2025 | +2.98 | -6.5% | +6.4% | +18.2% | +15.8% |
| November 3, 2023 | +2.81 | +5.0% | +13.6% | +19.0% | +32.7% |
| May 20, 2022 | +2.88 | -3.9% | +6.1% | +1.6% | +6.3% |
| November 23, 2018 | +2.71 | -6.5% | +6.1% | +5.7% | +19.0% |
| April 6, 2018 | +3.22 | +2.8% | +6.0% | +11.4% | +11.2% |
03
Where the cash is going
Each fund's assets and its net flow over the same 13 weeks, largest first. Together they took in +$30.7B.
| Fund | Holds | Assets | 13-week flow |
|---|---|---|---|
| SGOV | T-bill | $110.6B | +$14.6B |
| BIL | T-bill | $47.9B | +$1.2B |
| JPST | Ultra-short bond | $41.7B | +$2.6B |
| SHV | T-bill | $21.4B | +$0.5B |
| USFR | Floating-rate Treasury | $19.5B | +$2.0B |
| PULS | Ultra-short bond | $19.2B | +$1.8B |
| MINT | Ultra-short bond | $17.8B | +$1.4B |
| BOXX | Box spread | $14.4B | +$1.6B |
| FLOT | Ultra-short bond | $10.9B | +$1.0B |
| VUSB | Ultra-short bond | $10.2B | +$1.4B |
| ICSH | Ultra-short bond | $8.9B | +$1.2B |
| GBIL | T-bill | $7.9B | +$0.1B |
| TBIL | T-bill | $7.4B | +$0.2B |
| TFLO | Floating-rate Treasury | $6.9B | +$0.3B |
| NEAR | Ultra-short bond | $5.1B | +$0.5B |
| GSY | Ultra-short bond | $4.0B | +$0.4B |
| BILS | T-bill | $3.9B | +$0.0B |
| TBLL | T-bill | $2.6B | +$0.0B |
| CLIP | T-bill | $2.4B | −$0.2B |
| XHLF | T-bill | $2.0B | +$0.1B |
| XBIL | T-bill | $0.8B | +$0.0B |
| ULST | Ultra-short bond | $0.5B | −$0.0B |
| OBIL | T-bill | $0.3B | −$0.0B |
Flows are shares outstanding changes times the closing price, so price moves and reinvested interest are excluded. Money market funds are left out: their weekly balances swing with tax dates and quarter-end corporate cash.
Cash ETF flows2026-09-25
+1.31
Elevated inflowsz-score of the 13-week net flow against the prior three years. 2.5 or more marks an extreme rush into cash.
13-week flow
+$30.7B
Fund assets
$366B
Last extreme
2026-04
How Cash ETF Flows Works
- 1Track the funds people use as cashTwenty-three ETFs hold T-bills, floating-rate Treasuries or ultra-short bonds: SGOV, BIL, SHV, USFR, TFLO, JPST, MINT and sixteen more. Investors park money in them when they want out of risk but still want a yield, which makes their flows a real-money read on caution.
- 2Measure net flows from share countsAn ETF grows when authorized participants create new shares and shrinks when they redeem them. Every Friday we record each fund’s shares outstanding and multiply the weekly change by the fund’s closing price. That gives the dollars that moved in or out, separate from price changes or reinvested interest.
- 3Sum 13 weeks and compare with the prior three yearsThe headline is the net flow over the last 13 weeks, scored as a z-score against the same measure over the previous 156 weeks. These funds grew about thirtyfold since 2016, so raw dollars would simply rise with the asset base. The z-score asks a fairer question: is this quarter’s move into cash large compared with what the same funds were doing recently?
- 4Read extremes as fearA reading of 2.5 or more marks an extreme rush into cash, the kind of move investors make when they are frightened. The page lists every one since the series began and tests what the S&P 500 did afterwards against the average session.
Who Uses Cash ETF Flows
Contrarians
Extreme inflows into cash ETFs mark moments when investors are paying up for safety. The episode table shows what stocks did after each one, so you can judge the contrarian case for yourself.
Allocators
The 13-week flow shows whether the money that left stocks is sitting in cash or has moved on. Persistent inflows during a rally are a sign that caution has not gone away.
Macro traders
The fund table shows where the cash is going: T-bill funds, floating-rate Treasuries or ultra-short credit, which tells you how much yield and risk the cautious money is still willing to take.
Pro Tips
01
The spikes carry the signal
Money flows into cash ETFs almost every week because their yields are attractive. The information is in the unusual quarters, which is why the headline is a z-score and the extreme line sits at 2.5.
02
Check each horizon separately
Extremes tend to arrive in the middle of a selloff, so the weeks right after one can still be rough. The study table grades one, three, six and twelve months separately for that reason.
03
Pair it with a price gauge
Flows show what investors did with their money. Read them beside the VIX or the put/call ratio, which show what they paid for protection, and trust extremes more when several agree.
Common Issues & Solutions
Why not include money market funds?▾
Money market balances are far larger, but their weekly changes are dominated by tax payments and quarter-end institutional cash, and the retail series publishes about four weeks late. Cash ETFs trade daily, report shares daily and are held mostly by investors making an allocation choice, which makes them the cleaner and more timely signal.
Does interest income count as a flow?▾
It does not. The flow is the change in shares outstanding times the price, so a fund that grows only because its bills pay interest shows no flow. Only new money coming in, or money leaving, moves the gauge.
Why do ultra-short bond funds count as cash?▾
Funds such as JPST, MINT and ICSH hold short, high-grade paper with durations under a year, and most investors use them as higher-yielding cash. They carry a little credit risk that T-bill funds do not, so the fund table labels each category.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are cash ETF flows?▾
They are the net dollars moving into or out of exchange-traded funds that hold T-bills, floating-rate Treasuries or ultra-short bonds. We track 23 of them, including SGOV, BIL, SHV, USFR, JPST and MINT. When investors sell stocks and want a safe yield, these funds are where much of that money lands.
How is the flow measured?▾
From shares outstanding. Each Friday we record every fund’s share count and multiply the weekly change by its closing price. New shares mean money came in; redeemed shares mean it left. Price moves and reinvested interest do not count.
What does the z-score mean?▾
It compares the latest 13-week flow with the same measure over the prior three years. Zero is an ordinary quarter; 1 is one standard deviation above the recent norm; 2.5 or more is an extreme rush into cash. Scoring against recent history matters because these funds have grown roughly thirtyfold since 2016.
Is a high reading bullish or bearish?▾
It is a fear reading, and fear readings are usually read as contrarian. The study on the page shows what the S&P 500 did after every extreme against the average session, with the sample size stated, because a handful of episodes is a pattern and not a statistic.
Why not use money market fund data?▾
Money market fund balances swing with tax dates and quarter-end corporate cash, and the retail figures arrive weeks late. Cash ETF share counts update every day, so the gauge can move while a selloff is still happening.
How often is it updated?▾
Daily, after the US close. The weekly series is sampled on Fridays; between Fridays the latest session is shown as a provisional point and firms up at the week’s close.
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Last updated: 2026-09-25