RiskNYSE common stocks since 2010 · as of October 14, 2026
Titanic Syndrome: Is It On Today?
A split-market warning devised by Bill Ohama in 1965: more NYSE stocks making 52-week lows than 52-week highs while the S&P 500 sits at a high. This page checks Ohama’s rule and the stricter five-condition version every session, and shows how often each was followed by a real fall compared with ordinary days.
Titanic SyndromeOctober 14, 2026
Watch
4 of 5 conditions
Ohama’s original condition holds; the five-condition version does not.
New lows
149
8.0% of NYSE
New highs
42
2.26% of NYSE
Strict, last
Dec ’21
1208 sessions ago
Warning: the five-condition version fired in the last 21 sessions. Watch: only Ohama’s original condition holds.
Latest read
On October 14, 2026, 149 NYSE common stocks and ADRs made 52-week lows and 42 made 52-week highs (2.26% of 1,861 issues), with SPY −1.22% from its 52-week closing high. Bill Ohama’s original Titanic Syndrome condition holds, and 4 of the 5 conditions in the stricter version hold; it last fired on December 20, 2021. Since 2010, the original rule was followed by a 10% fall in SPY within three months in 18% of its 39 episodes, against 18% for every session; the stricter version, in 2 of 4.
Sources, methodology & freshnessNYSE-listed common stocks and ADRs from TradeStation daily bars (closed-end funds and units excluded); SPY closes · Daily after the US closeData as of 2026-10-14 · Open ↓Close ↑
Source
NYSE-listed common stocks and ADRs from TradeStation daily bars (closed-end funds and units excluded); SPY closes
Methodology
52-week intraday highs and lows against the prior 365 days; SPY 252-session closing high; outcome is the deepest SPY close-to-close fall over 63 sessions
Updates
Daily after the US closeData as of 2026-10-14
Maintained & reviewed by Yuriy Matso — methodology shown on the page.
01
Today’s conditions
Ohama’s original rule needs the first two. The five-condition version needs all five.
| 1 | S&P 500 (SPY) closed at a 252-session high within the last 7 sessionsoriginal | last high 2026-10-06, 6 sessions ago | Yes |
| 2 | NYSE new lows above new highs todayoriginal | 149 lows, 42 highs | Yes |
| 3 | NYSE new lows above new highs on at least 4 of the last 5 sessions | 5 of 5 | Yes |
| 4 | SPY closed lower on at least 4 of the last 5 sessions | 4 of 5 | Yes |
| 5 | NYSE new highs below 1.5% of issues | 2.26% (42 of 1,861) | No |
02
NYSE new lows and new highs, % of issues
Range:
New 52-week lows, % of NYSE issuesNew 52-week highs, % of NYSE issues
New 52-week lows, % of NYSE issuesNew 52-week highs, % of NYSE issues
03
What followed: both versions against the base rate
The deepest fall in SPY’s close over the next 63 sessions, about three months, measured from the signal day. Ohama’s rule fires about 2.5 times a year and its record is close to an ordinary day’s. The five-condition version’s record is much stronger, but it rests on 4 episodes.
| Starting point | Cases | Fell 10%+ | Fell 7%+ | Median fall | Median 3-mo return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Every session | 3,907 | 18% | 36% | −5.4% | +3.8% |
| Within 7 sessions of a high | 1,498 | 13% | 30% | −5.1% | +3.0% |
| Ohama’s original rule | 39 | 18% | 44% | −6.0% | +2.5% |
| Five-condition version | 4 | 50% | 50% | −9.4% | +3.6% |
| Five-condition firing | Lows / highs | Deepest fall, 3 mo | 3-mo return |
|---|---|---|---|
| September 25, 2014 | 76 / 5 | −5.9% | +5.8% |
| December 15, 2014 | 135 / 11 | −4.6% | +5.5% |
| February 27, 2020 | 353 / 5 | −28.7% | +1.8% |
| December 20, 2021 | 103 / 4 | −12.9% | −1.2% |
04
How much the thresholds matter
Every nearby version of the five-condition rule, with the share of episodes followed by a 10% fall within three months and the number of episodes. All 63 versions with at least 3 episodes are shown; none was chosen as better. The published thresholds rank 12 of 63. The share ranges from 22% to 67% (median 38%), against 13% for every session near a high, and 63 of 63 versions beat that. 36 of them hold today (outlined).
| High within | Lows > highs | SPY down | Highs < 1.5% | Highs < 2.5% | No highs test |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 sessions | 3 of 5 | 3 of 5 | 25% (4) | 38% (8) | 33% (9) |
| 5 sessions | 3 of 5 | 4 of 5 | 33% (3) | 43% (7) | 43% (7) |
| 5 sessions | 4 of 5 | 3 of 5 | — | 25% (4) | 25% (4) |
| 5 sessions | 4 of 5 | 4 of 5 | — | 33% (3) | 33% (3) |
| 7 sessions | 3 of 5 | 3 of 5 | 30% (10) | 29% (14) | 25% (16) |
| 7 sessions | 3 of 5 | 4 of 5 | 29% (7) | 30% (10) | 30% (10) |
| 7 sessions | 4 of 5 | 3 of 5 | 50% (6) | 57% (7) | 57% (7) |
| 7 sessions | 4 of 5 | 4 of 5 | 50% (4) ★ | 60% (5) | 60% (5) |
| 7 sessions | 5 of 5 | 3 of 5 | 33% (3) | 50% (4) | 50% (4) |
| 7 sessions | 5 of 5 | 4 of 5 | — | 67% (3) | 67% (3) |
| 10 sessions | 3 of 5 | 3 of 5 | 36% (11) | 27% (15) | 25% (16) |
| 10 sessions | 3 of 5 | 4 of 5 | 38% (8) | 36% (11) | 36% (11) |
| 10 sessions | 4 of 5 | 3 of 5 | 44% (9) | 40% (10) | 33% (12) |
| 10 sessions | 4 of 5 | 4 of 5 | 50% (6) | 57% (7) | 57% (7) |
| 10 sessions | 5 of 5 | 3 of 5 | 57% (7) | 57% (7) | 57% (7) |
| 10 sessions | 5 of 5 | 4 of 5 | 40% (5) | 50% (6) | 50% (6) |
| 15 sessions | 3 of 5 | 3 of 5 | 28% (18) | 23% (22) | 22% (23) |
| 15 sessions | 3 of 5 | 4 of 5 | 29% (14) | 28% (18) | 28% (18) |
| 15 sessions | 4 of 5 | 3 of 5 | 33% (15) | 28% (18) | 26% (19) |
| 15 sessions | 4 of 5 | 4 of 5 | 36% (11) | 38% (13) | 38% (13) |
| 15 sessions | 5 of 5 | 3 of 5 | 50% (10) | 50% (10) | 50% (10) |
| 15 sessions | 5 of 5 | 4 of 5 | 43% (7) | 50% (8) | 50% (8) |
05
Limits of this record
- The record starts in 2010, so it misses the 2000 and 2007 tops, and a few episodes decide every result on this page.
- Our NYSE counts drop most delisted companies, which were often the ones making new lows. Past lows are understated, so both rules fired less often in the past than they would have live.
- The counts cover NYSE-listed common stocks and ADRs. Vendor counts that include preferred shares and closed-end funds put the share of new highs lower, so the 1.5% test can pass there and fail here.
- For the better-known cousin, which needs many new highs and new lows at once, see the Hindenburg Omen; for the counts by universe, see New Highs – New Lows.
Titanic SyndromeOctober 14, 2026
Watch
4 of 5 conditions
Ohama’s original condition holds; the five-condition version does not.
New lows
149
8.0% of NYSE
New highs
42
2.26% of NYSE
Strict, last
Dec ’21
1208 sessions ago
Warning: the five-condition version fired in the last 21 sessions. Watch: only Ohama’s original condition holds.
How Titanic Syndrome Works
- 1Start from an S&P 500 highThe S&P 500 (SPY) must have closed at its highest level of the past 252 sessions, about a year, within the last 7 sessions.
- 2Ohama's original ruleBill Ohama's Titanic Syndrome, devised in 1965, fires when NYSE stocks making 52-week lows outnumber those making 52-week highs within 7 sessions of that high. Ohama counted 7 sessions either side of the high; a live reading can only look back, so this page uses the high behind it.
- 3The five-condition versionA stricter version adds three tests: new lows above new highs on at least 4 of the last 5 sessions, the S&P 500 lower on at least 4 of the last 5, and new highs below 1.5% of NYSE issues. All five must hold.
- 4Test both against the base rateFor every past firing, the page measures the deepest fall in SPY over the next 63 sessions, about three months, and compares how often it reached 10% with every session and with every session near a high. Firings within 21 sessions of each other count once.
Who Uses Titanic Syndrome
Traders who saw the signal on social media
The page shows whether each condition holds today on our own NYSE counts, and how often the signal has preceded a real fall, compared with ordinary days.
Risk managers watching breadth
A high in the index with more stocks breaking down than breaking out is a split market. The page tracks it every session beside its record.
Anyone weighing a crash warning
The page reports the result whatever it says, including how rarely the strict version fires and how much of its record rests on a handful of cases.
Pro Tips
01
The original fires often
Ohama's single condition fires a few times a year, so most firings come to nothing. The study below compares its record with ordinary days.
02
The extra filters do the work, on few cases
The five-condition version has a much stronger record, but it rests on a handful of episodes. The threshold grid shows how the record changes when each filter is loosened or tightened.
03
Look at what is making the new lows
New lows concentrated in one corner of the market, such as rate-sensitive stocks when bond yields jump, say something different from lows spread across every sector. The New Highs–New Lows page breaks the counts down.
Common Issues & Solutions
A published chart shows the signal firing and this page does not▾
Vendor NYSE counts include preferred shares, closed-end funds and other issues. This page counts NYSE-listed common stocks and ADRs only, so the share of new highs is higher here and the 1.5% test can fail when a vendor count passes it.
The record starts in 2011▾
Our NYSE counts start in late 2010, and each stock needs a year of prices before it can make a 52-week high or low.
Past firings may be undercounted▾
The counts use the price files we hold, which drop most delisted companies. Companies that later failed were often making new lows, so past readings understate the lows and both rules fired less often in the past than they would have live.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Titanic Syndrome?▾
A stock market warning devised by Bill Ohama in 1965. It fires when NYSE stocks making new 52-week lows outnumber those making new 52-week highs within 7 trading days of a major market high, on the idea that a market rising on fewer and fewer stocks is fragile.
Who created the Titanic Syndrome?▾
Bill Ohama, in 1965. He and Melanie Bowman later described it in Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities. The stricter five-condition version that circulates today adds filters to Ohama's rule.
How is the Titanic Syndrome different from the Hindenburg Omen?▾
Both look for a split market: many stocks at new highs and new lows, or more at lows than highs, while the index sits near its high. The Hindenburg Omen requires both new highs and new lows above a minimum share of issues plus a negative McClellan Oscillator and a rising trend. The Titanic Syndrome only asks whether lows outnumber highs near an index high.
Is the Titanic Syndrome on today?▾
As of October 14, 2026, Ohama’s original condition holds: NYSE new lows 149 against new highs 42 among 1,861 NYSE common stocks and ADRs. The five-condition version is off; it last fired on December 20, 2021. 4 of its 5 conditions hold.
Does the Titanic Syndrome predict crashes?▾
Since 2010, Ohama’s original rule fired in 39 separate episodes, about 2.5 a year, and SPY fell 10% or more within three months after 18% of them, against 18% of all sessions and 13% of sessions near a high. The five-condition version fired in 4 episodes and was followed by a 10% fall in 2 of them. That is a stronger record on too few cases to rely on: across 63 nearby versions of its thresholds the share ranges from 22% to 67%.