Commitment of Traders: Smart-Money Positioning & the COT Index
Weekly CFTC futures positioning for the markets that matter to equity investors — stock indices, Treasuries, the dollar, gold, oil. We track the speculative “smart money” (leveraged funds and managed money), lead with actual longs, shorts and net contracts, and translate each market’s position within its trailing three-year range.
This week’s reading
As of the September 8, 2026 CFTC report, 4 of 13 tracked futures markets are at positioning extremes within their own three-year ranges: 1 at short extremes (Russell 2000) and 3 at long extremes (Copper, 2-Year T-Note, 30-Year T-Bond). Another 2 lean short, 1 lean long, and 6 remain mid-range. The board is split rather than expressing a single cross-market consensus; extremes are context, not timing signals.
Sources, methodology & freshnessLast updated 2026-09-08 · Open ↓Close ↑
The cross-market board is split: 1 tracked futures sit at the short end of their own three-year ranges and 3 sit at the long end. The rest lean short, long, or remain mid-range—positioning context, not a directional forecast.
The positioning board
| Market | Class | Net | Net % OI | Three-year position |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E-mini Russell 2000 | Equity Index | -110K | -25.55% | Short extreme2 |
| Euro FX | FX | -33K | -3.53% | Crowded short14 |
| Silver | Metals | +14K | 13.93% | Short-side34 |
| 10-Year T-Note | Rates | -1.94M | -37.1% | Mid-range46 |
| E-mini S&P 500 | Equity Index | -341K | -16.46% | Mid-range49 |
| Gold | Metals | +135K | 32.82% | Mid-range55 |
| VIX Futures | Volatility | -23K | -5.39% | Mid-range56 |
| WTI Crude Oil | Energy | +112K | 5.76% | Mid-range58 |
| E-mini Nasdaq-100 | Equity Index | -32K | -10.8% | Mid-range59 |
| US Dollar Index | FX | +6K | 10.69% | Crowded long81 |
| 30-Year T-Bond | Rates | -277K | -15.37% | Long extreme97 |
| 2-Year T-Note | Rates | -1.29M | -29.69% | Long extreme97 |
| Copper | Metals | +82K | 27.62% | Long extreme100 |
Plain-English range labels lead; the small number preserves the normalized cross-market rank for sorting. Smart money = leveraged funds (financials) / managed money (commodities).
COT Index history + futures price
Futures price: TradeStation continuous front-month contract, aligned to each weekly COT report date. The contrarian read is when the COT Index hits an extreme against the price trend.
E-mini Russell 2000 — institutional positioning in dollars
The ink line is the futures price. The red line converts asset managers + leveraged funds net contracts into current contract value, so changing futures prices and different contract sizes are reflected in one dollar measure.
E-mini Russell 2000 price and fund exposure
Weekly CFTC report dates · $50 × index
Derived exposure = net contracts × aligned futures price × exchange contract multiplier. This is futures contract market value—not margin posted, portfolio beta, delta-adjusted exposure, or the investor group's complete exposure outside this contract.
E-mini Russell 2000 — every trader group
The Traders in Financial Futures report splitsE-mini Russell 2000 positioning into three reportable groups. Net contracts (longs − shorts) for each — they largely net against each other, so this is the clearest view of who is on which side.
Net = long contracts minus short (left axis); the faint grey line is the E-mini Russell 2000 futures price (right axis). Dashed line marks zero — the flip between net-long and net-short.
The cross-market board is split: 1 tracked futures sit at the short end of their own three-year ranges and 3 sit at the long end. The rest lean short, long, or remain mid-range—positioning context, not a directional forecast.
How Commitment of Traders (COT) Works
- 1Pull the weekly CFTC reportEvery Friday at 3:30pm ET the CFTC publishes the Commitments of Traders report — futures positioning as of the prior Tuesday, broken out by trader category. We fetch it straight from the CFTC, the authoritative source, for a curated set of equity-index, rates, FX, and commodity markets.
- 2Isolate the "smart money"For financial futures (equity indices, Treasuries, FX) we track Leveraged Funds — the hedge-fund category. For physical commodities (gold, oil, copper) we track Managed Money. Both are the speculative, trend-following money whose net position is the most-watched COT signal.
- 3Compute the net position and the COT IndexNet = longs minus shorts. Because raw net contracts aren’t comparable across markets, we also compute the COT Index: where this week’s net sits as a percentile of its own trailing 3-year range. A reading near 0 is the most net-short in three years; near 100 is the most net-long.
- 4Translate contracts into dollar exposureFor financial futures, we combine Asset Manager and Leveraged Fund net contracts; for commodities, whose CFTC report has no Asset Manager category, we use Managed Money. We multiply that net by the aligned futures price and the exchange contract multiplier to estimate current contract market value in dollars.
- 5Publish a dated, plain-English readingEach market gets its current net, net as a share of open interest, the COT Index, and a one-week change — dated to the Tuesday it reflects. Positioning extremes are cycle context, not timing signals.