META call spread likely bought to open
Logged Oct 26, 2026 at 10:13 ET with META at $631.92. The position it leaves is long 11,754 Feb 19 780 calls, short 11,754 Feb 19 950 calls, bullish on META if opened in this direction: the prints, what most likely happened, scenarios to expiry and the payoff follow.
Now long 11,754 Feb 19 780 calls, short 11,754 Feb 19 950 calls: bullish on META if opened in this direction.
- Money behind it
- $15.32Mpremium paid, all it can lose; behaves like 194,411 META shares long today ($122.85M)
- Potential profit
- +$184.50Mif META ends at or above $950.00 on Feb 19; −$15.32M if META ends flat
- Max risk
- −$15.32Mthe premium, if META ends at or below $780.00 on Feb 19
- Capital behind it
- $15.32M$15.32M premium paid
- Return, 116 days
- up to 1204%1204% max, -100% if flat, on premium paid
- Breakeven
- $793.03+25.5% from $631.92
- The trade
- $22.64Mpremium across 23,508 contracts; −$15.32M net cash paid
Side read from the fill, not reported by the tape. Computed from the logged prints. Not advice.
The trade
Call debit spread: buy the Feb 19, 2027 780 call and sell the Feb 19, 2027 950 call, same size, paired spread prints labelled BEST.
| Time (ET) | Option | Qty | Price | Exchange | Market | Delta | IV | META | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10:13:48 | Feb 19 780 call | 1,583 | 16.20 | BEST | 15.55 × 16.20 | 0.22 | 39.9% | 631.92 | Bought |
| 10:13:48 | Feb 19 950 call | 1,583 | 3.10 | BEST | 3.00 × 3.35 | 0.06 | 40.9% | 631.92 | Sold |
| 10:13:48 | Feb 19 780 call | 1,584 | 16.20 | BEST | 15.55 × 16.20 | 0.22 | 39.9% | 631.92 | Bought |
| 10:13:48 | Feb 19 950 call | 1,584 | 3.10 | BEST | 3.00 × 3.35 | 0.06 | 40.9% | 631.92 | Sold |
| 10:13:48 | Feb 19 780 call | 2,111 | 16.20 | BEST | 15.55 × 16.20 | 0.22 | 39.9% | 631.92 | Bought |
| 10:13:48 | Feb 19 950 call | 2,111 | 3.10 | BEST | 3.00 × 3.35 | 0.06 | 40.9% | 631.92 | Sold |
| 10:13:48 | Feb 19 780 call | 356 | 16.17 | BEST | 15.55 × 16.20 | 0.22 | 39.8% | 631.92 | Bought |
| 10:13:48 | Feb 19 950 call | 356 | 3.12 | BEST | 3.00 × 3.35 | 0.06 | 40.9% | 631.92 | Sold |
| 10:13:48 | Feb 19 780 call | 356 | 16.17 | BEST | 15.55 × 16.20 | 0.22 | 39.8% | 631.92 | Bought |
| 10:13:48 | Feb 19 950 call | 356 | 3.12 | BEST | 3.00 × 3.35 | 0.06 | 40.9% | 631.92 | Sold |
| 10:13:48 | Feb 19 780 call | 2,882 | 16.10 | BEST | 15.55 × 16.20 | 0.22 | 39.8% | 631.92 | Bought |
| 10:13:48 | Feb 19 950 call | 2,882 | 3.13 | BEST | 3.00 × 3.35 | 0.06 | 40.9% | 631.92 | Sold |
| 10:13:48 | Feb 19 780 call | 2,882 | 16.10 | BEST | 15.55 × 16.20 | 0.22 | 39.8% | 631.92 | Bought |
| 10:13:48 | Feb 19 950 call | 2,882 | 3.13 | BEST | 3.00 × 3.35 | 0.06 | 40.9% | 631.92 | Sold |
| Total | Feb 19 780 call | 11,754 | 16.15 | BEST | 15.55 × 16.20 | 0.22 | 39.8% | $18.98M premium | |
| Total | Feb 19 950 call | 11,754 | 3.12 | BEST | 3.00 × 3.35 | 0.05 | 40.9% | $3.66M premium | |
Every print of the order as it crossed the tape, in the time-and-sales layout. Prices in green printed at the ask, in red at the bid. Delta and implied volatility are solved from each print's own price against META at $631.92 (Black-Scholes, fed funds, no dividend), so they differ slightly from a broker's. Totals weight price and quote by size. "Read" is our reading of the side, explained next.
What most likely happened
At 10:13 ET, 11,754 Feb 19 780 calls and 11,754 Feb 19 950 calls traded together in one order on BEST, the same size on every leg: one trader, one decision.
Open interest before the session: Feb 19 780 call 918 with 11,754 traded; Feb 19 950 call 134 with 11,754 traded. A strike that held about the traded size was being closed; one that held almost none was being opened.
Our read is a likely new bullish call debit spread. The lower-strike calls appear to have been bought while the higher-strike calls were sold, reducing the upfront cost and capping the upside. The position needs a substantial rally to break even at expiration; it can appreciate before then without the stock reaching that expiration breakeven. The entire debit can be lost if the stock finishes at or below the lower strike. The upper strike is the profit cap, rather than proof of a price target. Opening status and initiator direction are inferred; the payoff and exposure assume a new position in this direction.
The evidence. The call legs have matching timestamps, fill sizes, displayed venue labels and spread flags. The lower-strike fills were at or near the offer, and the paired net debits were toward the offer side of the implied package quote, supporting a buyer-initiated read. The later chain snapshot shows volume at both strikes far above prior open interest, supporting substantial new activity without confirming this specific position opened. Each displayed row is retained as a separate fill, including repeated sizes. The chain snapshot is used for prior open interest and session volume; execution quotes come from the earlier tape. The screenshot clock is interpreted as Pacific time and converted to Eastern for the log. The order filled 17% of the way from the price at which the read's initiator crosses the whole quote (−$15.52M) to the price at which they are paid it (−$14.34M): below the midpoint, which supports the read.
The other read. The package could buy back an existing bearish call spread, or form part of a larger position or hedge whose other trades are not visible. Prior open interest was far below the displayed size, which makes a pure closing trade against positions held before the session less likely. Intraday opening and closing activity can still produce volume well above prior open interest, and the tape cannot establish the initiating account or its purpose.
Scenarios to the Feb 19 expiry
Where META would end if it moved evenly to each level by Feb 19, 2027, and what the position would make or lose there. The solid line is the breakeven.
META at expiry: the price and what the position makes or loses
Closes through Oct 26 · scenarios to Feb 19META at expiry: the price and what the position makes or loses
Closes through Oct 26 · scenarios to Feb 19| META by Feb 19 | META | Position at expiry |
|---|---|---|
| −15% | $537.13 | −$15.32M |
| −10% | $568.73 | −$15.32M |
| −5% | $600.32 | −$15.32M |
| flat | $631.92 | −$15.32M |
| +5% | $663.52 | −$15.32M |
| +10% | $695.11 | −$15.32M |
| +15% | $726.71 | −$15.32M |
What the position makes or loses
Breakeven at the Feb 19 expiry: META at $793.03 (+25.5% from entry). The most it can make at expiry is $184.50M. Behaves like long 194,411 META shares ($122.85M).
Profit or loss of the open position against what it was opened for, across META prices from $537.13 to $1011.07. The second axis is the move from the trade's price. Black-Scholes on each leg's implied volatility at the fed funds rate.
Since the trade
First mark on Oct 26, 2026: −$509K. The chart starts with the second session.
Source
Options time and sales and an options-chain snapshot from a U.S. brokerage's trading platform, entered by hand. Marks from daily option bars; the closing price from our price files. Page data as of Oct 26, 2026. All bets →
Now long 11,754 Feb 19 780 calls, short 11,754 Feb 19 950 calls: bullish on META if opened in this direction.
- Money behind it
- $15.32Mpremium paid, all it can lose; behaves like 194,411 META shares long today ($122.85M)
- Potential profit
- +$184.50Mif META ends at or above $950.00 on Feb 19; −$15.32M if META ends flat
- Max risk
- −$15.32Mthe premium, if META ends at or below $780.00 on Feb 19
- Capital behind it
- $15.32M$15.32M premium paid
- Return, 116 days
- up to 1204%1204% max, -100% if flat, on premium paid
- Breakeven
- $793.03+25.5% from $631.92
- The trade
- $22.64Mpremium across 23,508 contracts; −$15.32M net cash paid
Side read from the fill, not reported by the tape. Computed from the logged prints. Not advice.