Market Regime: Is the Market Trending or Choppy, Volatile or Quiet?
Six intraday tools folded into two axes. Movement asks how much the market travels in a session; quality asks how cleanly it travels. Together they read as one of four regimes, Expansion, Whipsaw, Grind or Chop, since 2004, with a shift signal when the last ten sessions disagree with the regime. Direction is left out on purpose: who is winning is the Tape Tracker's question.
Today's reading
As of the September 10, 2026 close the market reads Chop, small moves that go nowhere: movement 5 and quality 13 on a 0 to 100 scale, in place for 8 sessions since August 31, 2026. The 10-session read agrees, so no shift is flagged. Since 2004, the session after a Chop reading averaged a 0.86% SPY range against 1.19% for all sessions. The inputs moving fastest on the 10-session read: ES 1-minute candle range (cash session) (up), SPY open-to-close move (up), SPY daily high-to-low range (up).
Sources, methodology & freshnessLast updated 2026-09-10 · Open ↓Close ↑
Since 2004, Chop covered 44% of sessions in runs of 16 sessions at the median (longest 127). The session after a Chop reading averaged a 0.86% SPY range against 1.19% for all sessions. That is persistence, and it forecasts nothing about direction.
Where the market sits on the two axes
Quality across, movement up, both 0 to 100. Every session since 2004 is a grey dot, so today's position is read against the whole record. The trail is the last 20 sessions, darkening toward today, with a date every five sessions. The filled point is the 20-session read that names the regime; the hollow point is the 10-session read, and when it sits in a different quadrant the market is shifting.
Movement and quality since 2004
The eight inputs, and which moved first
Each input is ranked against its own history (0 to 100) on 20 sessions and on 10; the arrow shows where the faster read sits against the slower one.
| Input | Axis | 20s pctile | 10s pctile | Tool |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ES 1-minute candle range (cash session)since 1997 | movement | 4 | 7↑ | Futures Candle Size |
| QQQ open-to-close movesince 1999 | movement | 5 | 5 | Intraday Momentum |
| SPY open-to-close movesince 1993 | movement | 5 | 10↑ | Intraday Momentum |
| SPY daily high-to-low rangesince 1993 | movement | 5 | 10↑ | Range Efficiency |
| QQQ range efficiencysince 1999 | quality | 4 | 4 | Range Efficiency |
| Index Sync session correlationsince 2002 | quality | 2 | 5 | Index Sync |
| Index Sync session efficiencysince 2002 | quality | 31 | 35↑ | Index Sync |
| Session one-sidedness (bull share vs 50)since 2009 | quality | 13 | 33↑ | Bull vs Bear Power |
Bull vs Bear Power and Session Momentum read the same session bodies, so they enter once, as one-sidedness: the distance of the session bull share from 50, identical for a 70/30 bull session and a 30/70 bear session.
How long regimes last, and what the next session looked like
Every session since 2004 by regime: share of the record, run lengths, and the following session's SPY range and QQQ range efficiency beside the all-sessions average. Forward SPY returns are context, and overlapping windows make them descriptive only.
| Regime | Share | Runs | Median run | Longest | Next-session range | Next-session efficiency | Next 21s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expansionvolatile & trending | 25% | 50 | 16 | 189 | 1.85% | 49% | +0.41% · 58%↑ |
| Whipsawvolatile & choppy | 7% | 39 | 6 | 55 | 1.78% | 48% | +4.09% · 90%↑ |
| Grindquiet & trending | 25% | 109 | 11 | 46 | 0.96% | 46% | +0.60% · 67%↑ |
| Chopnowquiet & choppy | 44% | 105 | 16 | 127 | 0.86% | 47% | +0.72% · 65%↑ |
| All sessions | 100% | — | — | — | 1.19% | 47% | +0.84% · 66%↑ |
- Median run
- 16 sessions
- Longest run
- 189
- Next-session range
- 1.85% (all 1.19%)
- Next-session efficiency
- 49% (all 47%)
- Next 21 sessions
- +0.41% · 58%↑
- Median run
- 6 sessions
- Longest run
- 55
- Next-session range
- 1.78% (all 1.19%)
- Next-session efficiency
- 48% (all 47%)
- Next 21 sessions
- +4.09% · 90%↑
- Median run
- 11 sessions
- Longest run
- 46
- Next-session range
- 0.96% (all 1.19%)
- Next-session efficiency
- 46% (all 47%)
- Next 21 sessions
- +0.60% · 67%↑
- Median run
- 16 sessions
- Longest run
- 127
- Next-session range
- 0.86% (all 1.19%)
- Next-session efficiency
- 47% (all 47%)
- Next 21 sessions
- +0.72% · 65%↑
Where each regime went next
Completed runs since 2004: for each starting regime, the share of runs that ended in each of the others.
| From ↓ to → | Expansion | Whipsaw | Grind | Chop | Runs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expansion | · | 64% | 28% | 8% | 50 |
| Whipsaw | 72% | · | 0% | 28% | 39 |
| Grind | 17% | 0% | · | 83% | 109 |
| Chop | 3% | 7% | 90% | · | 105 |
The regime switches only when a 20-session axis crosses 55 on the way up or 45 on the way down, so a single wild session cannot flip it. Inputs are ranked against every prior reading of their own history, with at least 500 prior sessions before a rank is defined; the record therefore starts in 2004, once two inputs on each axis qualify.
Since 2004, Chop covered 44% of sessions in runs of 16 sessions at the median (longest 127). The session after a Chop reading averaged a 0.86% SPY range against 1.19% for all sessions. That is persistence, and it forecasts nothing about direction.
How Market Regime Works
- 1Two questions, two axesA day trader asks two things about the tape: how much does it move, and how cleanly? Movement is built from the ES 1-minute candle size, the QQQ and SPY open-to-close move and SPY's daily range. Quality is built from QQQ range efficiency, the Index Sync correlation and efficiency reads, and how one-sided each session was. Direction is left out on purpose.
- 2Rank every input against its own historyA percentile is where a reading sits among everything that came before it. Each input is averaged over 20 sessions and ranked only against prior readings, so a series that starts in 1997 and one that starts in 2009 share one scale and nothing in the past is scored with knowledge of the future.
- 3Average into an axis, then read the quadrantEach axis is the plain average of its inputs, 0 to 100. Above 50 on movement is volatile, below is quiet; above 50 on quality is trending, below is choppy. Expansion is volatile and trending, Whipsaw volatile and choppy, Grind quiet and trending, Chop quiet and choppy.
- 4Switch with hysteresis, watch for the shiftThe regime only flips when an axis crosses 55 on the way up or falls under 45 on the way down, so it does not flutter around the midline. A second read on 10 sessions uses the plain 50 line; when its quadrant differs from the regime, the page says which regime the market is shifting toward and for how many sessions.