Disclaimer

The content on this Site — including every reading, chart, indicator, signal study, fund portfolio, and economic figure — is provided for general informational and educational purposes only. We are not a registered investment adviser, broker-dealer, or financial planner, and we do not provide personalized investment, financial, legal, or tax advice. Nothing here accounts for your individual circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance.

Trading and investing in securities involve substantial risk, including the possible loss of your entire principal. Market internals, breadth indicators, and volatility measures describe conditions; they do not predict outcomes. You alone are responsible for your investment decisions.

Our signal studies report historical base rates — what happened on average after a given trigger fired in the past. Past performance and historical base rates do not guarantee or predict future results. Sample sizes are often small, market regimes change, and a statistic that held historically can fail completely going forward. We report the full sample, including the worst outcomes, precisely so this is never hidden.

Every published strategy result is a historical simulation, not a return earned by a subscriber, client, or managed account. The results remain hypothetical even when part of the history was held aside from strategy development. A backtest cannot reproduce all the decisions, constraints, delays, and market conditions a person would encounter in real trading.

• Timing and execution. Signals use information available by the stated close and assume portfolio changes at the next session's open. Reported records use modeled execution costs at the displayed account size where a calibrated estimate is available. Actual spreads, market impact, partial fills, and execution prices can differ materially.
• Coverage and cash flows. Historical delisting coverage is incomplete. Dividends and taxes are excluded. Data may also be corrected or revised after publication.
• Model risk. Strategy selection, market-regime changes, overfitting, crowding, concentration, and changing relationships between inputs can make future results materially worse than the historical record.

A strategy passing our publication standard is evidence about one historical test; it is not a return promise, suitability determination, or guarantee that the model will continue to qualify.

Systematic execution removes discretionary overrides; it does not remove risk. Published strategies can experience prolonged drawdowns, sudden overnight gaps, momentum reversals, correlated holdings, liquidity deterioration, data delays, and losses that exceed their historical worst case. Each public strategy Methodology page describes its principal risks without disclosing the proprietary formula.

We compute our tools from data we believe to be reliable, but we do not warrant the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of any information on the Site. Data is derived from third-party sources and may contain errors, omissions, or delays. Readings can be revised as underlying data is corrected. All content is provided "as is."

Economic data comes from the Federal Reserve's FRED service, fund holdings from SEC EDGAR, and market data from third-party providers. We do not control these sources and are not responsible for their accuracy or availability.

Before acting on anything you read here, do your own research and consult a qualified, licensed financial professional who can consider your full situation. By using the Site you acknowledge that you use it at your own risk and that The Trading Tools bears no liability for any loss arising from your reliance on it.

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