Friday, October 2, 2026
September's jobs report was weak across the board: payrolls grew by 29,000 after 133,000 in August, unemployment rose to 4.2%, and wage growth slowed to its lowest since May 2021. The Sahm rule rose for the first time since November 2025, though it remains far from the half-point level that has marked recessions.
- 01
Average Hourly Earnings (Wage Growth) fell to 3.0%
YoY %, September 2026, from 3.1% for August 2026. It is the lowest since May 2021. Source: BLS.
YoY %, last five years YoY %, last five years - 02
Federal Funds Rate rose to 3.75%
Fed funds rate, September 2026, from 3.63% for August 2026. Source: Fed.
Fed funds rate, last five years Fed funds rate, last five years - 03
Unemployment Rate rose to 4.2%
Unemployment rate, September 2026, from 4.1% for August 2026. Source: BLS.
Unemployment rate, last five years Unemployment rate, last five years - 04
Nonfarm Payrolls: +29.0K
Monthly change, September 2026, from 133K for August 2026. Source: BLS.
Monthly change, last five years Monthly change, last five years - 05
Sahm Rule Recession Indicator rose to 0.00
Sahm Rule indicator, September 2026, from -0.07 for August 2026. Source: Sahm/FRED.
Sahm Rule indicator, last five years Sahm Rule indicator, last five years - 06
Temporary Help Employment held at 0.6%
Year-over-year change, September 2026, from 0.6% for August 2026. It is the highest since October 2022. Source: BLS.
Year-over-year change, last five years Year-over-year change, last five years - 07
U-6 Underemployment Rate fell to 7.6%
U-6 underemployment rate, September 2026, from 7.7% for August 2026. It is the lowest since January 2025. Source: BLS.
U-6 underemployment rate, last five years U-6 underemployment rate, last five years - 08
Heavy Truck Sales fell to 396
Heavy truck sales (000s, SAAR), September 2026, from 413 for August 2026. Source: BEA/Fed.
Heavy truck sales (000s, SAAR), last five years Heavy truck sales (000s, SAAR), last five years - 09
Labor Force Participation Rate rose to 61.8%
Participation rate, September 2026, from 61.6% for August 2026. Source: BLS.
Participation rate, last five years Participation rate, last five years - 10
Long-Term Unemployment (27+ weeks) rose to 1.94M
Unemployed 27+ weeks, September 2026, from 1.93M for August 2026. Source: BLS.
Unemployed 27+ weeks, last five years Unemployed 27+ weeks, last five years - 11
Prime-Age Employment-to-Population Ratio rose to 80.7%
Prime-age employment ratio, September 2026, from 80.4% for August 2026. Source: BLS.
Prime-age employment ratio, last five years Prime-age employment ratio, last five years - 12
Total Unemployed Workers rose to 7.11M
Unemployed workers, September 2026, from 7.03M for August 2026. Source: BLS.
Unemployed workers, last five years Unemployed workers, last five years - 13
Payroll Employment Diffusion Index rose to 57.0
3-month diffusion index, September 2026, from 55.4 for August 2026. Source: BLS.
3-month diffusion index, last five years 3-month diffusion index, last five years - 14
Average Weekly Hours — Total Private held at 34.4 hrs
Average weekly hours, September 2026, from 34.4 hrs for August 2026. Source: BLS.
Average weekly hours, last five years Average weekly hours, last five years - 15
Fed Balance Sheet (Total Assets) fell to $6.74T
Total assets, the week of Sep 30, 2026, from $6.75T for the week of Sep 23, 2026. Source: Fed.
Total assets, last five years Total assets, last five years
Next scheduled: Tuesday, October 6, 2026
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Every official economic release dated Friday, October 2, 2026, in order of importance and then by how unusual the reading is against its own history. Days with no releases have no edition. Market moves are not part of the edition. Values are those shown on each indicator page, which carry later revisions; charts end on the edition's date. Research and education, not financial advice.