SentimentUpdated daily after close · as of 2026-08-04
Fear & Greed Index: Market Sentiment, Rebuilt in the Open
The familiar seven-component sentiment dial — rebuilt so every input is checkable. Momentum, new highs, up-volume, put/call, VIX, junk-bond demand and safe-haven demand, each scored 0–100 against its own trailing year and averaged. Each component links to its full tool page here, the history goes back to 2012, and — the part other dials leave out — the page publishes what SPY actually did after every zone.
Today's reading
As of 2026-08-04, the index reads 64 — Greed from 7 components (+21 vs 43 a week ago, +7 vs 57 a month ago). Historically, Greed days preceded +2.63% · 75% win over the next 63 sessions, against a +3.27% · 77% win all-days baseline.
Sources, methodology & freshnessLast updated 2026-08-04 · Open ↓Close ↑
Source
All seven components computed from our own data: the ~5,500-symbol daily price database (TradeStation) for momentum, breadth, highs/lows, HYG/LQD and stocks-vs-bonds; Cboe for the VIX; the official CBOE daily stats page for the put/call ratio (2025+).
Methodology
Each component is a rolling 252-session percentile (0 = max fear, 100 = max greed) of its raw series; the index is the equal-weight average of available components (six before 2025, seven after — put/call's free history starts January 2025). Zones at 25/45/55/75. Forward returns are SPY averages from each day, with overlapping 21/63-session windows.
Updates
Recomputed after every US trading close as part of the daily pipeline.Last: 2026-08-04
Maintained & reviewed by Yuriy Matso — methodology shown on the page.
Fear & Greed2026-08-04
64
Greed
Extreme fearNeutralExtreme greed
One week ago
43
One month ago
57
Equal-weight average of 7 component scores, each a rolling 252-session percentile (0 = max fear, 100 = max greed). Zones at 25 / 45 / 55 / 75.
01
The seven components, scored
The composite hides its own disagreements — this table doesn't. Each row is one component's 0–100 score against its trailing year, with the raw value it came from. When one component fights the rest, that split is usually the story.
| Component | Right now | Score | Fear ← → Greed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market momentum (SPY vs 125-day) | SPY +8.1% vs its 125-day average | 77 | |
| Stock price strength (new highs vs lows) | 84% of extreme prints are new highs | 85 | |
| Volume breadth (10-day up-volume share) | 54% of volume flowed into advancers (10d) | 68 | |
| Put/call ratio (5-day, inverted) | total put/call 0.93 (5-day average) | 24 | |
| Volatility (VIX vs 50-day, inverted) | VIX -4.9% vs its 50-day average | 55 | |
| Junk bond demand (HYG vs LQD) | HYG/LQD +0.15% vs its 20-day average | 55 | |
| Safe-haven demand (stocks vs bonds, 20-day) | stocks +5.2pp vs bonds over 20 sessions | 85 |
02
The index since 2012
Fifteen years of the dial, with SPY above it. Notice the shape: fear spikes are sharp and cluster inside selloffs; greed is a plateau. That asymmetry is why the zones read contrarian in the outcome table below.
Range:
03
What happened next — SPY after each zone
The test other dials don't publish, run before this page was built. The pattern is monotonic and contrarian: the more fearful the zone, the better the average outcome — Extreme Fear preceded roughly 1.7× baseline three-month returns. That is a base rate over overlapping windows, mostly earned inside crashes that eventually turned; it is context, not a trigger.
| Zone | Days | Share | Next 21 sessions | Next 63 sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Extreme Fear | 567 | 16% | +2.09% · 71% win | +5.58% · 81% win |
| Fear | 836 | 24% | +1.13% · 68% win | +3.32% · 78% win |
| Neutral | 583 | 16% | +0.83% · 65% win | +2.68% · 76% win |
| GreedToday | 1,181 | 33% | +0.91% · 69% win | +2.63% · 75% win |
| Extreme Greed | 376 | 11% | +0.67% · 66% win | +2.56% · 75% win |
| All days (baseline) | 3,543 | 100% | +1.11% · 68% win | +3.27% · 77% win |
Average SPY price return and share of positive outcomes from every day in each zone, 2012+. Adjacent days overlap almost entirely, so effective sample sizes are far smaller than the day counts. Dividends excluded.
04
What this gauge cannot tell you
Three limits, stated plainly. It is not CNN's number: same concept, different data and scaling — ours reads against our own universe with published methodology, and the two will disagree by a few points routinely. The put/call component starts in 2025: earlier history averages six components (CBOE's free ratio history begins January 2025); the zone study is dominated by the six-component era. It is a mood ring, not a model: the outcome table is an honest base rate, not a strategy — for positioning gauges with edge tests of their own, see the Put/Call Ratio, Commitment of Traders and the Tape Tracker.
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How Fear & Greed Index Works
- 1Measure seven sentiment componentsMarket momentum (SPY vs its 125-day average), stock price strength (new 52-week highs vs lows across our common-stock universe), volume breadth (the 10-day share of volume flowing into advancing stocks), the CBOE total put/call ratio, the VIX against its 50-day average, junk-bond demand (high-yield vs investment-grade, HYG/LQD), and safe-haven demand (stocks vs Treasuries over 20 sessions). Every one is a series our pipeline already computes for its own tool page.
- 2Score each 0–100 against its own trailing yearEach raw component becomes a rolling 252-session percentile, oriented so 0 is maximum fear and 100 maximum greed. Percentile scoring means no component's scale can dominate, and readings mean the same thing across eras.
- 3Average into one number, with zonesThe index is the equal-weight average of available components. Zones use the familiar cutoffs: below 25 Extreme Fear, 25–45 Fear, 45–55 Neutral, 55–75 Greed, above 75 Extreme Greed.
- 4Read it against the outcome tableThe page ships what other fear/greed dials leave out: SPY's average forward returns from every zone across fifteen years, computed before the page was built. The pattern is contrarian and monotonic — the fearful zones preceded the best returns.
Who Uses Fear & Greed Index
Contrarian investors
The classic use: extreme fear has historically been an opportunity marker, not a warning. Our zone table quantifies it — Extreme Fear days preceded roughly 1.7× baseline three-month returns with an 81% win rate.
Swing traders
A one-number read on whether sentiment is stretched before adding risk. The week-ago and month-ago values show how fast the mood is swinging — regime changes matter more than levels.
Skeptics of black boxes
Every component links to its own full tool page on this site, the normalization is stated, and the history is downloadable. If you distrust sentiment dials, this one can be audited.
AI and research assistants
A dated, citable current reading with methodology and base rates in plain language — built to be quoted with its as-of date.
Pro Tips
01
The zones are base rates, not triggers
Extreme Fear preceding above-baseline returns is an average across hundreds of overlapping days, mostly clustered in selloffs that eventually mean-reverted. It says nothing about the next week — the win rates and the overlap caveat are printed for a reason.
02
Watch the swing, not just the level
A jump from Fear to Greed inside a week (like early August 2026, 43 → 64) tells you more about the tape than either endpoint. The week-ago and month-ago deltas are on the card.
03
Check which components disagree
The composite hides its own dispersion. When six components read greed and put/call reads fear — hedging into a rally — that split is often the story. The component table shows each score and its raw value.
04
Compare against CNN's dial
Same concept, different plumbing: our components come from our own universe and use rolling-percentile scoring, so levels will differ from CNN's. Directionally they usually agree; when they diverge, the component table explains why ours reads what it reads.
Common Issues & Solutions
Why does the reading differ from CNN's Fear & Greed Index?▾
Different data and different normalization. CNN's exact computation is not public; ours is — seven analogous components, each a rolling 252-session percentile of a series we publish, equal-weighted. The zones usually agree; the number rarely matches exactly, and that is fine — the point of this page is that you can see why ours says what it says.
Why does the put/call component only start in 2025?▾
CBOE retired its free historical ratio files in 2019; our daily scrape of the official stats page reaches back to January 2025. Before that the index averages the six available components — disclosed here and in the data file. The zone study is dominated by the six-component era.
Is this predictive?▾
It is a sentiment gauge with honest base rates attached. The forward-return table shows a monotonic contrarian pattern over fifteen years, but the windows overlap heavily and fear clusters in crashes — treat the zones as context, not as entries.
Why rolling percentiles instead of fixed bounds?▾
Sentiment series drift across eras (the VIX's teens today are not 2012's teens). A rolling one-year percentile keeps each component's score meaning the same thing — "high for the recent regime" — in any year, the same convention our TICK dashboards use.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the fear and greed index today?▾
The current reading, zone, and all seven component scores are at the top of this page, updated after every US trading close with the as-of date printed. The index runs 0 (extreme fear) to 100 (extreme greed).
How is the fear and greed index calculated?▾
Seven components — SPY momentum, new highs vs lows, up-volume share, put/call ratio, VIX vs trend, junk-bond demand, and stocks-vs-bonds performance — are each scored as a rolling one-year percentile from 0 (fear) to 100 (greed) and averaged equally. The full method and every input series are published on this site.
Is the fear and greed index a good buy signal?▾
As a standalone timing signal, no — but the base rates lean contrarian. In our fifteen-year history, Extreme Fear days preceded +5.6% average SPY returns over the next three months (81% positive) against a +3.3% all-days baseline, and returns grade down monotonically toward Extreme Greed (+2.6%). The windows overlap and fear clusters in crashes, so we publish it as context, not as a trigger.
Is this the same as CNN's Fear & Greed Index?▾
No — it is our own independent gauge built on the same seven-component concept. CNN's inputs and scaling are not fully public; ours are, and each component links to its own live tool page here. The two usually land in the same zone.
What does Extreme Fear mean?▾
A composite reading below 25 — sentiment near the bottom of its trailing-year range across most components. Historically these days sat inside selloffs, and forward returns from them averaged well above baseline, which is the contrarian logic of the gauge.
Explore Other Tools
Put/Call Ratio
The options-sentiment component on its own, with percentile and contrarian bands
VIX Fear Index
The volatility component in full: level, percentile, term structure link
New Highs – New Lows
The strength component: 52-week extremes across our universe, daily since 2010
Credit Spreads
The junk-demand component's home: the HYG/LQD regime with credit context
Last updated: 2026-08-04