Shiller CAPE Ratio (Cyclically Adjusted P/E)
The CAPE ratio (cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings, or P/E10) divides the real S&P 500 price by the average of the past ten years of real earnings — smoothing through profit cycles that make ordinary P/E ratios misleading at turning points. Introduced by Robert Shiller and John Campbell in 1988, it is the most-cited valuation measure in finance. This series comes from Shiller's own maintained dataset, monthly back to 1881, alongside his total-return variant (TR CAPE) which corrects for the shift from dividends to buybacks.
Latest reading
As of July 2026, Shiller CAPE (CAPE (P/E10)) stands at 41.4× — up from 40.9× the prior reading. The long-run median is about 17×; the record is 44.2× in December 1999, and the 1929 peak was 32.6×. High CAPE readings have historically predicted weak REAL returns over the following decade — not imminent crashes: CAPE first crossed its 1929 level in 1996, four years before the top. Two honest caveats: accounting standards and payout policy changed across 145 years (TR CAPE addresses the buyback part), and CAPE has spent most of the post-1990 era above its long-run median, so many practitioners compare it to its trailing few decades rather than to 1881. Series history runs from 1881 to present.
CAPE (P/E10)
- Vs full history
- 41.499th pctile
- TR CAPE
- 44.2
Next release: Aug 01, 2026
Full history
Methodology & data
Shiller CAPE is sourced from Shiller via the Federal Reserve's FRED service (Robert Shiller's dataset (shillerdata.com, ie_data.xls), monthly, 1881+; real price ÷ 10-year average real earnings). We pull the complete history, chart it on a monthly basis, overlay SPY for context, and generate a dated plain-English reading from the latest release — with no smoothing or adjustment beyond what the chart legend states.
Every reading is stamped with its release date, last updated 2026-07-12. Maintained and reviewed by Yuriy Matso; see our methodology for the standards every series on the site is held to.
Frequently asked questions
What is the Shiller CAPE Ratio (Cyclically Adjusted P/E)?
The CAPE ratio (cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings, or P/E10) divides the real S&P 500 price by the average of the past ten years of real earnings — smoothing through profit cycles that make ordinary P/E ratios misleading at turning points. Introduced by Robert Shiller and John Campbell in 1988, it is the most-cited valuation measure in finance. This series comes from Shiller's own maintained dataset, monthly back to 1881, alongside his total-return variant (TR CAPE) which corrects for the shift from dividends to buybacks.
How do you read Shiller CAPE?
The long-run median is about 17×; the record is 44.2× in December 1999, and the 1929 peak was 32.6×. High CAPE readings have historically predicted weak REAL returns over the following decade — not imminent crashes: CAPE first crossed its 1929 level in 1996, four years before the top. Two honest caveats: accounting standards and payout policy changed across 145 years (TR CAPE addresses the buyback part), and CAPE has spent most of the post-1990 era above its long-run median, so many practitioners compare it to its trailing few decades rather than to 1881.
Where does the Shiller CAPE data come from?
Robert Shiller's dataset (shillerdata.com, ie_data.xls), monthly, 1881+; real price ÷ 10-year average real earnings. We chart the full history and publish a dated, plain-English reading with every release; the raw series is downloadable as CSV at /data/indicators/shiller-cape.csv.
How often is Shiller CAPE updated?
Shiller CAPE is a monthly series from Shiller, refreshed here as soon as a new release posts to FRED.