Economy/Shiller CAPE

ValuationUpdated with every release

Shiller CAPE Ratio (Cyclically Adjusted P/E)

The market price against ten years of inflation-adjusted earnings — a gauge of the next decade's valuation base rates. It does not time a crash.

The answer · Shiller CAPEOctober 2026provisional

Extreme valuation

40.7×from 40.6×

Only 19 months since 1881 were higher — all in 1999–2000 and 2026. Expensive starting valuation is evidence about the next decade. It says nothing about the next correction.

Full-history rank: 98.9th pctile
Since 1990: 95.5th pctile
Long-run median: 16.6×
Dot-com record: 44.2×

Excess CAPE yield0.56% · 13th pctile

Latest reading

As of October 2026, the Shiller CAPE is 40.7×, the 98.9th percentile since 1881. Only 19 months in the record were higher, all in 1999–2000 and 2026. The absolute valuation signal is extreme; the 0.56% excess CAPE yield remains above zero, so stocks are less stretched against bonds than at the dot-com peak. CAPE changes long-horizon base rates—it does not date the next market decline.

Sources, methodology & freshnessRobert Shiller's dataset (shillerdata.com, ie_data.xls), monthly, 1881+; real price ÷ 10-year average real earnings; the latest observations are provisional · Monthly, with every releaseData as of 2026-10-01 · Open ↓

Source

Robert Shiller's dataset (shillerdata.com, ie_data.xls), monthly, 1881+; real price ÷ 10-year average real earnings; the latest observations are provisional

Methodology

Complete monthly history from Shiller’s maintained workbook; the newest observations are provisional and may be restated by the publisher

Updates

Monthly, with every releaseData as of 2026-10-01Site refreshed 2026-10-09

Maintained & reviewed by Yuriy Matso — methodology shown on the page.

How to read today's 40.7×

Absolute valuation

Extreme

98.9th percentile since 1881; just 19 months were higher.

Relative to bonds

Thin positive premium

Excess CAPE yield is 0.56% — weak, but still above zero unlike 2000.

Market timing

Not a sell signal

CAPE changes long-horizon base rates; it has never supplied a reliable crash date.

Full history

Range:SPY overlay

Overview

CAPE (P/E10)

Excess CAPE yield

Shiller's answer to "low rates justify high valuations": the CAPE earnings yield minus the real 10-year Treasury yield — the expected edge stocks offer OVER bonds. It went negative at the 2000 peak (green/red zones split positive from negative) but stayed healthy through the zero-rate 2021 top.

Excess CAPE yield %Zero line

What happened next at valuations like this

Starting valuation changed the decade—not the date of the next decline

For every month since 1881, this study pairs the starting CAPE with the S&P's subsequent ten-year real total return: dividends reinvested and inflation removed. Today belongs to the highlighted band.

CAPE Under 10+11.0%/yr

Negative after 10Y 0%Worst 3Y -14.8%229 months · 6 eras

CAPE 10 – 15+7.8%/yr

Negative after 10Y 10%Worst 3Y -16.1%461 months · 16 eras

CAPE 15 – 20+6.2%/yr

Negative after 10Y 9%Worst 3Y -16.1%514 months · 21 eras

CAPE 20 – 25+4.9%/yr

Negative after 10Y 24%Worst 3Y -17.8%260 months · 13 eras

CAPE 25 – 30+5.5%/yr

Negative after 10Y 5%Worst 3Y -11.7%106 months · 6 eras

CAPE 30 and abovetoday-1.1%/yr

Negative after 10Y 60%Worst 3Y -24.5%57 months · 2 eras

Headline figure: median 10-year real return from that starting CAPE.

Starting CAPE	Months	Completed eras	Median 10Y real return	Negative after 10Y	Median worst 3Y drawdown
Under 10	229	6	+11.0%/yr	0%	-14.8%
10 – 15	461	16	+7.8%/yr	10%	-16.1%
15 – 20	514	21	+6.2%/yr	9%	-16.1%
20 – 25	260	13	+4.9%/yr	24%	-17.8%
25 – 30	106	6	+5.5%/yr	5%	-11.7%
30 and abovetoday	57	2	-1.1%/yr	60%	-24.5%

Important sample warning: the 57 completed monthly windows above 30× overlap and collapse into only 2 completed eras—1929 and 1997–2002. No window beginning in the current episode has reached its ten-year finish yet.

The timing counterexample

Expensive did not mean “sell today”

The current above-30 episode began in July 2017. Despite remaining historically expensive, the reconstructed S&P real total-return index advanced substantially. CAPE was early by nearly a decade and counting—which is exactly why it belongs in a long-horizon allocation discussion and fails as a trading trigger.

Open the annotated Chart of the Day →

First crossed 30×: July 2017
Months at 30×+: 81
Real total return: +157.7%
Worst drawdown: -24.5%

Methodology & data

Shiller CAPE is sourced from Shiller directly from the publisher’s own dataset (Robert Shiller's dataset (shillerdata.com, ie_data.xls), monthly, 1881+; real price ÷ 10-year average real earnings; the latest observations are provisional). We pull the complete history, chart it on a monthly basis, overlay SPY for context, and generate a dated plain-English reading from the latest release — with no smoothing or adjustment beyond what the chart legend states.

Every reading is stamped with its release date. Latest observation 2026-10-01; site refreshed 2026-10-09. Maintained and reviewed by Yuriy Matso; see our methodology for the standards every series on the site is held to.

The Manual — Shiller CAPE

The Shiller PE stands at 40.7× in October 2026 — the 98.9th percentile of 1,750 months since 1881, with only 19 months ever higher, all of them in 1999–2000 and 2026. The Manual computes what followed every reading like this one: forward 10-year real returns by starting valuation, every episode above 30× since 1881, and the honest counterweight in Shiller's own excess CAPE yield.

Read The Shiller CAPE Manual →

Frequently asked questions

What is the Shiller CAPE Ratio (Cyclically Adjusted P/E)?

The CAPE ratio (cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings, or P/E10) divides the real S&P 500 price by the average of the past ten years of real earnings — smoothing through profit cycles that make ordinary P/E ratios misleading at turning points. Introduced by Robert Shiller and John Campbell in 1988, it is the most-cited valuation measure in finance. This series comes from Shiller's own maintained dataset, monthly back to 1881, alongside his total-return variant (TR CAPE) which corrects for the shift from dividends to buybacks.

How do you read Shiller CAPE?

The long-run median is 16.6×; the record is 44.2× in December 1999, and the 1929 peak was 32.6×. High CAPE readings have historically predicted weak REAL returns over the following decade. They have not timed crashes: CAPE first crossed its 1929 level in July 1997, 29 months before the December 1999 peak. Two honest caveats: accounting standards and payout policy changed across 145 years (TR CAPE addresses the buyback part), and CAPE has spent most of the post-1990 era above its long-run median, so many practitioners compare it to its trailing few decades rather than to 1881.

Where does the Shiller CAPE data come from?

Robert Shiller's dataset (shillerdata.com, ie_data.xls), monthly, 1881+; real price ÷ 10-year average real earnings; the latest observations are provisional. We chart the full history and publish a dated, plain-English reading with every release; the raw series is downloadable as CSV at /data/indicators/shiller-cape.csv.

How often is Shiller CAPE updated?

Shiller CAPE is a monthly series from Shiller, refreshed here as soon as a new release posts from Shiller. Shiller can revise the newest observations, so the latest months are explicitly treated as provisional.