Options BetsOct 27, 2026 · 10:19:49 ET · TSLA

TSLA calls likely bought to open for March

Logged Oct 27, 2026 at 10:19 ET with TSLA at $401.40. The position it leaves is long 2,250 Mar 19 460 calls, bullish on Tesla if opened long: the prints, what most likely happened, scenarios to expiry and the payoff follow.

TSLA betOpen · +$52K on Oct 28

Now long 2,250 Mar 19 460 calls: bullish on Tesla if opened long.

Money behind it: $5.36Mpremium paid, all it can lose; behaves like 83,925 TSLA shares long today ($33.69M)
Potential profit: Unlimited−$5.00M if TSLA rises 15% by Mar 19
Max risk: −$5.36Mthe premium, if TSLA ends at or below $460.00 on Mar 19
Capital behind it: $5.36M$5.36M premium paid
Return, 143 days: −93%on the premium paid, if TSLA rises 15% by Mar 19; −100% if flat
Breakeven: $483.82+20.5% from $401.40
The trade: $5.36Mpremium across 2,250 contracts; −$5.36M net cash paid

Side read from the fill, not reported by the tape. Computed from the logged prints. Not advice.

The trade

Single call: buy the Mar 19 2027 460 call, one displayed block on ISE.

Time (ET)	Option	Qty	Price	Exchange	Market	Delta	IV	TSLA	Read
10:19:49	Mar 19 460 call	2,250	23.82	ISE	23.25 × 23.85	0.37	42.4%	401.40	Bought
Total	Mar 19 460 call	2,250	23.82	ISE	23.25 × 23.85	0.37	42.4%	$5.36M premium

Every print of the order as it crossed the tape, in the time-and-sales layout. Prices in green printed at the ask, in red at the bid. Delta and implied volatility are solved from each print's own price against TSLA at $401.40 (Black-Scholes, fed funds, no dividend), so they differ slightly from a broker's. Totals weight price and quote by size. "Read" is our reading of the side, explained next.

What most likely happened

At 10:19 ET, 2,250 Mar 19 460 calls traded together in one order on ISE, the same size on every leg: one trader, one decision.

Open interest before the session: Mar 19 460 call 1,633 with 2,250 traded. A strike that held about the traded size was being closed; one that held almost none was being opened.

Our read is a likely new bullish long-call position. The block printed very close to the contemporaneous ask, supporting a buyer-initiated interpretation. Both the block and the later session volume exceed prior open interest, supporting new activity in the series. If opened long, the position benefits from a Tesla rally before the March expiration. It can appreciate before expiration without the stock reaching the expiration breakeven, which includes the premium paid. The entire premium is at risk if the call expires out of the money. The strike is not proof of a price target; opening status and initiator direction are inferred, and the payoff assumes a new long position.

The evidence. Only the fully visible call print is logged; clipped adjacent rows are not included. The execution price is assessed against the quote on the same tape row. The later chain screenshot supplies prior open interest and cumulative session volume for the same expiry and strike; its later quote is not used to classify the earlier execution. These counts remain frozen as daily marks update. The screenshot clock is interpreted as Pacific time and converted to Eastern, consistent with earlier entries. The chain capture time uses the screenshot timestamp. Subsequent open-interest changes reflect all activity in the series, not this block alone. The order filled 5% of the way from the price at which the read's initiator crosses the whole quote (−$5.37M) to the price at which they are paid it (−$5.23M): below the midpoint, which supports the read.

The other read. The purchase could close short calls opened earlier in the session, or hedge a broader position that is not visible. A seller-initiated trade is also possible despite the near-ask fill. Volume above prior open interest does not establish the initiating account or prove that this particular block opened a standalone long position.

Scenarios to the Mar 19 expiry

Where TSLA would end if it moved evenly to each level by Mar 19, 2027, and what the position would make or lose there. The solid line is the breakeven.

TSLA at expiry: the price and what the position makes or loses

Closes through Oct 28 · scenarios to Mar 19

TSLATSLA −15%: $341.19, −$5.36MTSLA −10%: $361.26, −$5.36MTSLA −5%: $381.33, −$5.36MTSLA flat: $401.40, −$5.36MTSLA +5%: $421.47, −$5.36MTSLA +10%: $441.54, −$5.36MTSLA +15%: $461.61, −$5.00MBreakeven $483.82

TSLA closes on today's split basis, the one its strikes use, with even paths to each level by expiry. Illustrations, not forecasts.

TSLA at expiry: the price and what the position makes or loses

Closes through Oct 28 · scenarios to Mar 19

TSLA closes on today's split basis, the one its strikes use, with even paths to each level by expiry. Illustrations, not forecasts.

TSLA by Mar 19	TSLA	Position at expiry
−15%	$341.19	−$5.36M
−10%	$361.26	−$5.36M
−5%	$381.33	−$5.36M
flat	$401.40	−$5.36M
+5%	$421.47	−$5.36M
+10%	$441.54	−$5.36M
+15%	$461.61	−$5.00M

What the position makes or loses

Breakeven at the Mar 19 expiry: TSLA at $483.82 (+20.5% from entry). Behaves like long 83,925 TSLA shares ($33.69M).

Profit or loss by TSLA's price

Hover the chart for any price

At the Mar 19 expiryToday (Oct 28), at the options' current volatility

Profit or loss of the open position against what it was opened for, across TSLA prices from $341.19 to $517.69. The second axis is the move from the trade's price. Black-Scholes on each leg's implied volatility at the fed funds rate.

Since the trade

Profit or loss of the open position, thousands of dollars

Last updated Oct 28 · option closes

Each session's value of the open legs at their closing prices, against what they were opened for. The top pane is TSLA's close.