BreadthUpdated daily after close · as of 2026-10-07
Market Repair Flow: Is Internal Damage Healing, Spreading, or Stuck?
Static breadth tells you how many stocks are up; this tracks the flow of rehabilitation. Every US common stock is bucketed by its drawdown from its 52-week high — Healthy / Bruised / Damaged / Broken — and we net the share moving to a healthier bucket over the last 20 sessions against the share moving to a worse one. Stocks repair long before they print new highs; near tops, repair flow rolls over while the index still looks fine.
Today's reading
As of market close on October 7, 2026, Market Repair Flow is -16.9 — damage is spreading faster than stocks are healing: 7% of stocks moved to a healthier drawdown bucket over the last 20 sessions while 24% moved to a worse one. 42% of stocks remain Broken (more than 30% below their 52-week high). The regime reads Deteriorating and rising. After Deteriorating readings since 2011, the S&P 500 was higher six months later 82% of the time (+7.8% average). That is a regime read. It does not time entries.
Sources, methodology & freshnessDaily closes for eligible US common stocks (roughly 4,750 in a typical session; 2010–present), filtered by Polygon share class · Daily after US market close (~1pm PT)Data as of 2026-10-07 · Open ↓Close ↑
Source
Daily closes for eligible US common stocks (roughly 4,750 in a typical session; 2010–present), filtered by Polygon share class
Methodology
20-day change in each stock's drawdown bucket (Healthy/Bruised/Damaged/Broken vs its 252-day high); flow = % healing − % deteriorating, plus the transition matrix
Updates
Daily after US market close (~1pm PT)Data as of 2026-10-07
Maintained & reviewed by Yuriy Matso — methodology shown on the page.
Repair flow2026-10-07 · 20-session
DETERIORATING
-16.9
rising7% of stocks healed to a better bucket; 24% slipped to a worse one over the last 20 sessions.
Where every stock sits vs its 52-week high
Healthy 8%Bruised 24%Damaged 27%Broken 42%
After Deteriorating readings since 2011 (n=1194), the S&P 500 was higher 6 months later 82% of the time, +7.8% on average. A regime read, not a timing signal.
01
Repair flow vs the index
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repair flow (% healing − % worsening) zero line S&P 500 (right, log)
02
The last 20 sessions — who moved where
| Transition | Direction | % of universe |
|---|---|---|
| Bruised → Damaged | deteriorating | 10.0% |
| Healthy → Bruised | deteriorating | 6.8% |
| Damaged → Broken | deteriorating | 6.1% |
| Damaged → Bruised | healing | 2.3% |
| Bruised → Healthy | healing | 2.2% |
| Broken → Damaged | healing | 1.9% |
| Healthy → Damaged | deteriorating | 0.8% |
| Bruised → Broken | deteriorating | 0.6% |
| Damaged → Healthy | healing | 0.5% |
Each stock's drawdown bucket today vs 20 trading days ago. Stocks that stayed in the same bucket are omitted; the net of healing minus deteriorating moves is the repair flow above.
03
What the S&P 500 did next — by regime, since 2011
| Regime | Days (n) | SPY +1m | SPY +3m | SPY +6m | +6m win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Healing | 1373 | +1.0% | +3.0% | +6.3% | 83% |
| Stuck | 1253 | +0.8% | +2.3% | +4.6% | 73% |
| Deteriorating(today) | 1194 | +1.4% | +4.0% | +7.8% | 82% |
Forward returns use SPY closes ~21 / 63 / 126 trading days after every day in each regime since 2011. The relationship is U-shaped — both strong healing and rapid deterioration (washout) precede above-average returns, the Stuck middle lags — so read it as regime context. As a trigger it would fire at both ends of the U. The Deteriorating regime's forward record is flattered by survivorship bias (delisted stocks leave the Broken bucket).
Repair flow2026-10-07 · 20-session
DETERIORATING
-16.9
rising7% of stocks healed to a better bucket; 24% slipped to a worse one over the last 20 sessions.
Where every stock sits vs its 52-week high
Healthy 8%Bruised 24%Damaged 27%Broken 42%
After Deteriorating readings since 2011 (n=1194), the S&P 500 was higher 6 months later 82% of the time, +7.8% on average. A regime read, not a timing signal.
How Market Repair Flow Works
- 1Bucket every stock by its drawdown from its 52-week highFor each eligible US common stock — roughly 4,750 in a typical session — we measure how far its close sits below its highest close over the trailing 252 trading days, then assign a bucket: Healthy (0 to -5%), Bruised (-5 to -15%), Damaged (-15 to -30%), or Broken (worse than -30%).
- 2Compare each stock's bucket to 20 days agoThe signal is stateful: we look at where each stock sits today versus its bucket 20 trading days earlier. A stock moving from Broken to Damaged is repairing; one moving from Healthy to Bruised is deteriorating — even if neither has hit a new high or rolled into a new low yet.
- 3Net the healing against the damageRepair Flow = the percent of stocks moving to a healthier bucket minus the percent moving to a worse one. Positive means rehabilitation is outpacing damage across the market; negative means deterioration is spreading. The transition table shows exactly which moves dominate (Bruised→Healthy, Damaged→Broken, and so on).
- 4Read the regime, and what came nextWe label the market Healing, Stuck, or Deteriorating, and whether the flow itself is rising or falling. The table shows what the S&P 500 did over the following 1, 3 and 6 months from each regime since 2011 — read as context, because the relationship is U-shaped (the extremes lead, the middle lags).
Who Uses Market Repair Flow
Bottom-spotters
After a selloff, stocks start climbing out of the Broken and Damaged buckets long before the index prints new highs. A surge in Repair Flow off a washout is one of the earliest signs the internal damage is mending — the rehabilitation that precedes a durable advance.
Top-watchers
Near highs the warning is quiet: the index looks fine while Repair Flow rolls over and stocks slip from Healthy to Bruised. On our data, when the index was within 5% of its high but repair flow was deteriorating, forward 12-month returns ran ~3.8 points below the healing case.
Tactical Allocators
Use the regime as context. Both extremes — strong healing and rapid deterioration (washout) — preceded above-average forward returns; the Stuck middle was weakest. It is a rehabilitation gauge. It does not trigger trades.
Researchers & Commentators
A defensible answer to "is the damage under the surface getting better or worse?" — with the transition table and forward-return base rates to back it, where a single static breadth percentage offers none.
Pro Tips
01
Flow leads the level
Pair this with the Hidden Bear Index: that shows how deep the damage is (the level), this shows which way it is moving (the velocity). Deep damage that is healing is a very different setup than shallow damage that is deteriorating.
02
Watch the divergence at highs
The most distinctive signal is Repair Flow turning down while the index is still near its high. That internal rollover — stocks quietly slipping to worse buckets behind a calm tape — has historically been a meaningful drag on forward returns.
03
Read it as U-shaped
Strong healing is bullish (rehabilitation underway); rapid deterioration is also followed by good returns (washout mean-reversion). The weakest forward returns came from the Stuck middle. Don't read it as a straight line from "more healing = better."
04
Mind survivorship in the deep buckets
The universe is today's survivors, so stocks that delisted from the Broken bucket are gone. That flatters the deterioration/washout regime's forward record — treat the deep end as directional, not precise.
Common Issues & Solutions
How is this different from % of stocks above their 200-day average?▾
That is a static level — a snapshot of how many stocks are above one line right now. Repair Flow is a flow: it tracks each stock moving between drawdown buckets over the last 20 days. It captures rehabilitation (Broken→Damaged→Bruised→Healthy) and decay that a static percentage misses until it is already complete.
Why 20 trading days?▾
Twenty sessions is about one trading month — long enough to capture a genuine change in a stock's drawdown state and filter daily noise, short enough to be timely. It is the same horizon over which a real bottoming or topping process becomes visible in the buckets.
Repair Flow is near zero — what does that mean?▾
A flow near zero is the "Stuck" regime: roughly as many stocks are healing as deteriorating, so internal damage is neither mending nor spreading on net. Historically the Stuck middle carried the lowest forward win rate of the three regimes — not bearish, but the least constructive of the three.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Market Repair Flow?▾
It measures whether internal market damage is healing, spreading, or stuck. Every US common stock is bucketed by its drawdown from its 52-week high — Healthy, Bruised, Damaged or Broken — and we compare each stock's bucket to 20 trading days ago. Repair Flow is the share of stocks moving to a healthier bucket minus the share moving to a worse one, across the whole market.
Is internal market damage healing right now?▾
The live reading at the top of this page answers that each close: the net repair flow, the share of stocks improving vs deteriorating, the current Healthy/Bruised/Damaged/Broken split, and the transition table showing which moves dominate. Positive flow means healing is outpacing damage; negative means deterioration is spreading.
Does repair flow predict the market?▾
It carries a forward signal, but a U-shaped one: both strong healing and rapid deterioration (washout) preceded above-average S&P 500 returns since 2011, while the Stuck middle was weakest. Its most distinctive edge is divergence — when the index is near its high but repair flow is rolling over, forward returns have run materially below the healing case. Read it as regime context. It does not time entries or exits.
How is it different from the Hidden Bear Index?▾
They are companions built on the same drawdown buckets. The Hidden Bear Index measures the level of damage — how deep the typical stock's drawdown is. Market Repair Flow measures the velocity — whether stocks are moving to healthier or worse buckets over the last month. Level plus direction together are more informative than either alone.
How is it calculated and updated?▾
For every common stock we compute its drawdown from its trailing-252-day high, bucket it, and compare to its bucket 20 trading days earlier, then net the healing against the deterioration across the universe. It is computed from daily closes since 2011 and updated after every US market close.
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Last updated: 2026-10-07