Bulls in control
Days
531
Next 5 sessions
+0.25% · 65% win
Next 10 sessions
+0.53% · 68% win
Next 21 sessions
+1.01% · 70% win
Tape · today – 5 sessionsDaily data through 2026-08-28 · updated after every close
Tape Tracker: Who Controls the Tape?
Contested — the Tape Score reads 49/100, where 100 is full bull control and 0 is full bear control of the last 10 sessions. This measures control, not condition or forecast: six equal-weight dimensions of direct tape evidence — session control, breadth, volume confirmation, pressure prints, volatility, overnight gap — each mapped between documented bounds by one pure function. The identical function replays the 2010+ history, so the live gauge and the band base rates below cannot drift. Methodology revised 2026-07-18 (v2): duplicate votes merged (one combined ES+NQ session read plus its velocity; a ratio-adjusted McClellan whose bounds no longer clamp half the observations; continuous TICK and A/D bias composites in place of four sparse extreme-print counts) and a new TRIN-style volume-confirmation dimension added. v3 (2026-07-19) added the Overnight gap dimension. The full history and base rates below are computed under v3.
What drives today's read
Strongest dimension
Volatility at 69/100.
Weakest dimension
Pressure prints at 29/100.
Character check
Middle-of-the-road tape — move size 0.72%, follow-through 46.2%.
Sources, methodology & freshnessLast updated 2026-08-28 · Open ↓Close ↑
Source
Own intraday ES/NQ and $TICK/$TIKQ/$ADD/$ADQD series, eligible common-stock breadth (roughly 4,750 in a typical session), CBOE VIX/VIX3M, and SPY overnight gaps
Methodology
Six equal-weight dimensions (session control / breadth / volume confirmation / pressure prints / volatility / overnight gap; v2, 2026-07-18 — duplicate votes merged, ratio-adjusted McClellan, continuous bias composites, TRIN dimension added; v3, 2026-07-19 — overnight gap added), each input mapped linearly between documented bounds and clamped; ≥4 dimensions required to score. Fixed band edges 70/58/42/30. The identical pure function replays the 2010+ history, so the live gauge and the published band base rates cannot drift.
Updates
Daily after the US closeLast: 2026-08-28
Maintained & reviewed by Yuriy Matso — methodology shown on the page.
Tape score2026-08-28 · close
Contested
contested for 9 sessions · session control 51 · breadth 33 · volume confirmation 58 · pressure prints 29 · volatility 69 · overnight gap 53
01
The score through time — every session since 2010
3,991 sessions of the same fixed-bound function — no re-fitting, so a 44 in 2011 means what a 44 means today. SPY rides the top pane for context; the line wears the band colors — deep green bulls in control, medium green bulls leaning, gray contested, amber bears leaning, red bears in control. The band extremes are rare by construction and carry the study's information.
Window:
SPY (top pane, log) bulls (70+) bulls leaning 58–70 contested 42–58 bears leaning 30–42 bears (<30)
Tape Score, daily since 2010-10-15 (3,991 sessions). Band edges are fixed at 70/58/42/30 — bulls in control above 70, bears in control below 30. Endpoint: 49/100 (contested).
02
Which dimension flipped first — the last 60 sessions
The composite hides sequence: breadth can roll over weeks before session control follows, and volatility usually confirms last. Each row is one dimension's daily score on the same five-band scale as the gauge above — read left to right to see who led the current state and who is still holding out.
weak (<30)30–4242–5858–70strong (70+)no data
03
The six dimensions — every input, with its past year
Each input maps linearly between documented bounds (and is clamped), so 50 always means a normal, two-sided tape. The dashed lines mark the bounds — green where the input earns full bull credit, red full bear credit. Every input links to its own tool with the full series. At least 4 of 6 dimensions must be live to publish a score.
Window:
Session control
51/100- ES+NQ bull share (10s)47.9% → 37
- Bull share, 5s change+1.2pp → 65
Breadth
33/100- % above 10d MA38.9% → 31
- McClellan (ratio-adj)-21.1 → 35
Volume confirmation
58/100- Volume vs breadth (TRIN, 3s)+0.11 → 58
Pressure prints
29/100- TICK bias composite (z, 10s)-0.41 → 26
- A/D bias composite (z, 10s)-0.20 → 33
Volatility
69/100- VIX / VIX3M0.826 → 90
- VIX 10s change+1.3% → 48
Overnight gap
53/100- SPY overnight gap+0.1% → 53
04
What happened next — SPY after each band
Average SPY return (and share of positive outcomes) after every prior session in each band, 2010+. The extremes are contrarian: bear-controlled tapes preceded the best forward returns — stretched rubber bands, not trend confirmation.
Current band
Contested
1384 prior sessions · 35% of all days
Next 5 sessions
+0.17% · 58% win
Next 10 sessions
+0.45% · 62% win
Next 21 sessions
+0.89% · 66% win
| Band | Days | Next 5 sessions | Next 10 sessions | Next 21 sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bulls in control | 531 | +0.25% · 65% win | +0.53% · 68% win | +1.01% · 70% win |
| Bulls leaning | 1198 | +0.22% · 60% win | +0.40% · 64% win | +0.89% · 68% win |
| Contestedtoday | 1384 | +0.17% · 58% win | +0.45% · 62% win | +0.89% · 66% win |
| Bears leaning | 560 | +0.22% · 60% win | +0.58% · 60% win | +1.37% · 69% win |
| Bears in control | 318 | +0.88% · 68% win | +1.12% · 69% win | +2.23% · 71% win |
| All days (baseline) | 3991 | +0.26% · 61% win | +0.52% · 64% win | +1.08% · 68% win |
Bulls leaning
Days
1198
Next 5 sessions
+0.22% · 60% win
Next 10 sessions
+0.40% · 64% win
Next 21 sessions
+0.89% · 68% win
Contested
TodayDays
1384
Next 5 sessions
+0.17% · 58% win
Next 10 sessions
+0.45% · 62% win
Next 21 sessions
+0.89% · 66% win
Bears leaning
Days
560
Next 5 sessions
+0.22% · 60% win
Next 10 sessions
+0.58% · 60% win
Next 21 sessions
+1.37% · 69% win
Bears in control
Days
318
Next 5 sessions
+0.88% · 68% win
Next 10 sessions
+1.12% · 69% win
Next 21 sessions
+2.23% · 71% win
All days (baseline)
Days
3991
Next 5 sessions
+0.26% · 61% win
Next 10 sessions
+0.52% · 64% win
Next 21 sessions
+1.08% · 68% win
Overlapping forward windows — adjacent sessions share most of their forward path, so sample sizes are optimistic. SPY price return, dividends excluded.
05
What flips this read
Band edges are fixed at 70/58/42/30. Today's 49 is 9 points below bulls leaning (58); a 8-point drop reaches bears leaning (below 42). Session control and breadth are the fastest-moving dimensions; volatility usually confirms rather than leads.
06
What this page cannot tell you
The Tape Score does not forecast — and its own base rates prove the point twice over: the middle bands ran close to baseline, and the extremes ran contrarian (bears-in-control preceded above-baseline returns). It answers “whose tape is this?”, not “what happens next?”. It is also an end-of-day read over 10 sessions — it will lag a one-day reversal by construction. Use it as shared context for tactics and sizing, never as a stand-alone entry or exit signal.
Tape score2026-08-28 · close
Contested
contested for 9 sessions · session control 51 · breadth 33 · volume confirmation 58 · pressure prints 29 · volatility 69 · overnight gap 53
How Tape Tracker Works
- 1Six dimensions of direct tape evidenceSession control sums every 5-minute candle body in ES and NQ futures over the trailing 10 sessions — one combined level plus its 5-session change, because the two contracts correlate 0.85 and deserve one vote, not two. Breadth reads roughly 4,750 eligible common stocks in a typical session. Volume confirmation asks whether volume agrees with the stock count; pressure prints standardize $TICK/$TIKQ and $ADD/$ADQD; volatility checks VIX term structure and change; the overnight gap adds pre-market sentiment.
- 2Fixed linear mappings — no fitting, no percentile lookupsEach input maps linearly between documented bounds and is clamped: combined bull share 42→58%, its 5-session change ±4pp, breadth 20→80% above the 10-day, ratio-adjusted McClellan −65→+60, TRIN −0.45→+0.50, TICK/A-D bias composites −0.8→+0.7 and −0.55→+0.50 (z-units), VIX/VIX3M 1.05→0.80, VIX change +30→−30%, overnight gap −1.5%→+1.5%. Bounds sit at each series' 2011+ practical tails — the v1 raw-McClellan bounds clamped ~48% of observations, which is exactly what v2 fixes. A score of 50 always means a normal, two-sided tape.
- 3Fixed band edges: 70 / 58 / 42 / 30Bulls in control (70+), bulls leaning (58+), contested (42+), bears leaning (30+), bears in control (below 30). The band edges never re-fit, so a band means the same thing in 2011 and today (the input set was revised 2026-07-18 to v2 and 2026-07-19 to v3, with the full history recomputed each time — the revision is dated on the page). At least 4 of the 6 dimensions must be live to publish a score at all.
- 4Backtested by the identical functionThe same pure function replays the full 2010+ history, so the live gauge and the backtest cannot drift. Average SPY returns over the next 5, 10 and 21 sessions are published for every band — and the honest finding is contrarian at the extremes: bear-controlled tapes preceded the best forward returns.
Who Uses Tape Tracker
Day traders
One number for "whose tape is this?" before choosing momentum or fade tactics — with the inputs one click away when the score needs interrogating.
Swing traders
A short-horizon control read to time entries inside a longer thesis: a washed-out tape inside a healthy swing regime has historically been the better entry than a euphoric one.
Internals watchers
Replaces flipping between nine feeds — futures session power, breadth, volume ratios, TICK bias, VIX term structure — with one gauge whose components are all published.
Skeptics
Every input, bound and band edge is documented, and each input links to its own tool page with full history — the score can be recomputed by hand.
Pro Tips
01
The extremes are contrarian
Bears-in-control days preceded above-baseline 21-session returns in the backtest, and bull-controlled tapes were near baseline. Treat the extreme bands as stretched-rubber-band context, not trend confirmation.
02
Pair the score with the character check
The Tape Score says who is winning; the character chip (move size × follow-through) says how they are winning. Bulls in control on a whipsaw tape is a very different market from bulls in control on a trend-day tape.
03
Dimension disagreement is information
Bullish session control with bearish breadth is the signature of a narrow, index-led tape — the futures are being carried while the average stock is not participating. The dimension cards show that split directly.
04
Do not re-read wiggles inside a band
The edges are fixed at 70/58/42/30 for a reason: a move from 50 to 54 is noise, while a band change is a regime statement. The flip section states exactly how far today's score sits from each edge.
Common Issues & Solutions
The index closed green but the score fell▾
The score reads the whole tape instead of the cap-weighted close: breadth, extreme prints and futures candle bodies can all deteriorate on an up day. That divergence — index up, tape control slipping — is precisely what the gauge exists to surface.
A dimension reads 0 or 100▾
Inputs are clamped at their documented bounds, so a dimension pinned at 0 means its inputs are at or beyond the historical washout bound (e.g. print balance fully one-sided) — not that the data is broken.
Is this predictive?▾
It is a state gauge with published base rates. The mid bands ran close to baseline; the information is at the extremes, and there it is contrarian. Colors mark today's condition, never expected return.
What happens when a feed breaks?▾
The score needs at least 3 of 4 dimensions live. If an intraday feed fails, the affected dimension drops out and the page shows exactly which dimensions are in the score; with fewer than 3, no score is published rather than a degraded one.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Tape Score?▾
A 0–100 directional read of who controls the last 10 trading sessions: 100 is full bull control, 0 is full bear control, and ~50 is a contested, two-sided tape. It averages six equal-weight dimensions — ES/NQ session control, stock-level breadth, TRIN-style volume confirmation, TICK/A-D pressure bias, volatility confirmation and the SPY overnight gap — each built from inputs with documented bounds.
What does a "contested" tape mean?▾
The score sits between 42 and 58: neither side has won the recent tape decisively. Contested tapes are the most common state (~28% of sessions since 2010) and their forward returns ran close to baseline — the actionable information lives at the band extremes.
Is a bear-controlled tape bearish?▾
Historically, no — that is the page's honest finding. Days in the bears-in-control band preceded above-baseline SPY returns over the following 21 sessions, the same contrarian U-shape our Session Momentum, TICK and Hidden Bear studies found. The color marks the current condition. It forecasts nothing.
What data feeds the Tape Score?▾
Our own intraday database: 5-minute ES and NQ continuous-futures session aggregates; $TICK, $TIKQ, $ADD and $ADQD; roughly 4,750 eligible common stocks in a typical daily breadth calculation; CBOE VIX/VIX3M; and the SPY overnight gap. Every input links to its own tool page.
How is the Tape Tracker different from the Swing Tracker?▾
Tape measures control (who is winning right now, horizon today to ~5 sessions); Swing measures condition (does the internal structure support holding for weeks, horizon 1 week to 3 months). A bear-controlled tape inside a healthy swing structure is a dip; a bear-controlled tape inside a deteriorating swing structure is a warning.
How often does it update?▾
Every US trading day after the close, together with the rest of the site's daily pipeline. The score is an end-of-day read; it does not stream intraday.
Explore Other Tools
Session Momentum
The 10-session ES/NQ bull-share read that drives the session-control dimension
Bull vs Bear Power
Every 5-minute candle body in ES & NQ, session by session since 2009
Market Breadth
% of roughly 4,750 eligible common stocks above their moving averages in a typical session
NYSE TICK
Surge and washout extreme prints since 1997 — one of the four pressure-print inputs
Nasdaq TICK
The same dashboard on $TIKQ since 2001 — the Nasdaq half of the pressure-print inputs
VIX Term Structure
Contango vs backwardation — the volatility confirmation dimension
Last updated: 2026-08-28