Bulls in control
Days
687
Next 5 sessions
+0.22% · 61% win
Next 10 sessions
+0.40% · 65% win
Next 21 sessions
+0.72% · 67% win
Tape · today – 5 sessionsDaily data through 2026-07-14 · updated after every close
Tape Tracker: Who Controls the Tape?
Contested — the Tape Score reads 49/100, where 100 is full bull control and 0 is full bear control of the last 10 sessions. This measures control, not condition or forecast: four equal-weight dimensions of direct tape evidence — session control, breadth, pressure prints, volatility — each mapped between documented bounds by one pure function. The identical function replays the 2010+ history, so the live gauge and the band base rates below cannot drift.
What drives today's read
Strongest dimension
Volatility at 69/100.
Weakest dimension
Pressure prints at 25/100.
Character check
Middle-of-the-road tape — move size 0.82%, follow-through 47.9%.
Sources, methodology & freshnessLast updated 2026-07-14 · Open ↓Close ↑
Source
Own intraday ES/NQ 5-minute session aggregates and $TICK/$TIKQ/$ADD/$ADQD extreme-print counts (TradeStation), own daily breadth universe (~5,500 stocks), CBOE VIX & VIX3M
Methodology
Four equal-weight dimensions (session control / breadth / pressure prints / volatility), each input mapped linearly between documented bounds and clamped; ≥3 dimensions required to score. Fixed band edges 70/58/42/30. The identical pure function replays the 2010+ history, so the live gauge and the published band base rates cannot drift.
Updates
Daily after the US closeLast: 2026-07-14
Maintained & reviewed by Yuriy Matso — methodology shown on the page.
Tape score2026-07-14 · close
Contested
contested for 2 sessions · session control 60 · breadth 41 · pressure prints 25 · volatility 69
01
The score through time — every session since 2010
3,958 sessions of the same fixed-bound function — no re-fitting, so a 44 in 2011 means what a 44 means today. SPY rides the top pane for context; the score is green while bulls hold the majority of the tape (50+) and red when bears do. The band extremes are rare by construction and carry the study's information.
Window:
SPY (top pane, log) Tape Score at/above 50 below 50
Tape Score, daily since 2010-10-15 (3,958 sessions). Band edges are fixed at 70/58/42/30 — bulls in control above 70, bears in control below 30. Endpoint: 49/100 (contested).
02
Which dimension flipped first — the last 60 sessions
The composite hides sequence: breadth can roll over weeks before session control follows, and volatility usually confirms last. Each row is one dimension's daily score on the same five-band scale as the gauge above — read left to right to see who led the current state and who is still holding out.
bears (<30)bears leaningcontestedbulls leaningbulls (70+)no data
03
The four dimensions — every input, with its past year
Each input maps linearly between documented bounds (and is clamped), so 50 always means a normal, two-sided tape. The dashed lines mark the bounds — green where the input earns full bull credit, red full bear credit. Every input links to its own tool with the full series. At least 3 of 4 dimensions must be live to publish a score.
Session control
60/100- ES bull share (10s)51.2% → 57
- NQ bull share (10s)48.4% → 40
- ES sessions won7/10 → 83
Breadth
41/100- % above 10d MA42.7% → 38
- McClellan-21.4 → 37
- Net advances (10s)-2% → 47
Pressure prints
25/100- NYSE TICK surge − washout0% → 50
- Nasdaq TICK surge − washout-100% → 0
- NYSE A/D surge − washout0% → 50
- Nasdaq A/D surge − washout-100% → 0
Volatility
69/100- VIX / VIX3M0.855 → 78
- VIX 10s change-6.5% → 61
04
What happened next — SPY after each band
Average SPY return (and share of positive outcomes) after every prior session in each band, 2010+. The extremes are contrarian: bear-controlled tapes preceded the best forward returns — stretched rubber bands, not trend confirmation.
Current band
Contested
1212 prior sessions · 31% of all days
Next 5 sessions
+0.27% · 61% win
Next 10 sessions
+0.48% · 64% win
Next 21 sessions
+0.95% · 67% win
| Band | Days | Next 5 sessions | Next 10 sessions | Next 21 sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bulls in control | 687 | +0.22% · 61% win | +0.40% · 65% win | +0.72% · 67% win |
| Bulls leaning | 943 | +0.18% · 60% win | +0.41% · 65% win | +0.90% · 68% win |
| Contestedtoday | 1212 | +0.27% · 61% win | +0.48% · 64% win | +0.95% · 67% win |
| Bears leaning | 614 | +0.10% · 58% win | +0.44% · 58% win | +1.19% · 68% win |
| Bears in control | 502 | +0.63% · 65% win | +1.03% · 66% win | +2.02% · 71% win |
| All days (baseline) | 3958 | +0.26% · 61% win | +0.51% · 64% win | +1.07% · 68% win |
Bulls leaning
Days
943
Next 5 sessions
+0.18% · 60% win
Next 10 sessions
+0.41% · 65% win
Next 21 sessions
+0.90% · 68% win
Contested
TodayDays
1212
Next 5 sessions
+0.27% · 61% win
Next 10 sessions
+0.48% · 64% win
Next 21 sessions
+0.95% · 67% win
Bears leaning
Days
614
Next 5 sessions
+0.10% · 58% win
Next 10 sessions
+0.44% · 58% win
Next 21 sessions
+1.19% · 68% win
Bears in control
Days
502
Next 5 sessions
+0.63% · 65% win
Next 10 sessions
+1.03% · 66% win
Next 21 sessions
+2.02% · 71% win
All days (baseline)
Days
3958
Next 5 sessions
+0.26% · 61% win
Next 10 sessions
+0.51% · 64% win
Next 21 sessions
+1.07% · 68% win
Overlapping forward windows — adjacent sessions share most of their forward path, so sample sizes are optimistic. SPY price return, dividends excluded.
05
What flips this read
Band edges are fixed at 70/58/42/30. Today's 49 is 9 points below bulls leaning (58); a 8-point drop reaches bears leaning (below 42). Session control and breadth are the fastest-moving dimensions; volatility usually confirms rather than leads.
06
What this page cannot tell you
The Tape Score does not forecast — and its own base rates prove the point twice over: the middle bands ran close to baseline, and the extremes ran contrarian (bears-in-control preceded above-baseline returns). It answers “whose tape is this?”, not “what happens next?”. It is also an end-of-day read over 10 sessions — it will lag a one-day reversal by construction. Use it as shared context for tactics and sizing, never as a stand-alone entry or exit signal.
How Tape Tracker Works
- 1Four dimensions of direct tape evidenceSession control sums every 5-minute candle body in ES and NQ futures over the trailing 10 sessions — who actually won the intraday work. Breadth reads the share of ~5,500 stocks above their 10-day average, the McClellan Oscillator and the 10-session net-advances ratio. Pressure prints net surge vs washout prints for each of four feeds ($TICK, $TIKQ, $ADD, $ADQD), equal-weighted so a quiet feed reads neutral rather than letting the busiest feed dominate. Volatility checks whether the VIX term structure and the 10-session VIX change confirm or dispute the other three.
- 2Fixed linear mappings — no fitting, no percentile lookupsEach input maps linearly between documented bounds and is clamped: ES/NQ bull share 42→58%, sessions won 2→8 of 10, breadth 20→80% above the 10-day, McClellan ±80, net advances ±30%, print balance ±100%, VIX/VIX3M 1.05→0.80, VIX change +30→−30%. A score of 50 always means a normal, two-sided tape. Inputs average into their dimension; the dimensions average, equal-weight, into the score.
- 3Fixed band edges: 70 / 58 / 42 / 30Bulls in control (70+), bulls leaning (58+), contested (42+), bears leaning (30+), bears in control (below 30). The edges never re-fit, so a band means the same thing in 2011 and today. At least 3 of the 4 dimensions must be live to publish a score at all.
- 4Backtested by the identical functionThe same pure function replays the full 2010+ history, so the live gauge and the backtest cannot drift. Average SPY returns over the next 5, 10 and 21 sessions are published for every band — and the honest finding is contrarian at the extremes: bear-controlled tapes preceded the best forward returns.
Who Uses Tape Tracker
Day traders
One number for "whose tape is this?" before choosing momentum or fade tactics — with the inputs one click away when the score needs interrogating.
Swing traders
A short-horizon control read to time entries inside a longer thesis: a washed-out tape inside a healthy swing regime has historically been the better entry than a euphoric one.
Internals watchers
Replaces flipping between nine feeds — futures session power, breadth, TICK prints, VIX term structure — with one gauge whose components are all published.
Skeptics
Every input, bound and band edge is documented, and each input links to its own tool page with full history — the score can be recomputed by hand.
Pro Tips
01
The extremes are contrarian
Bears-in-control days preceded above-baseline 21-session returns in the backtest, and bull-controlled tapes were near baseline. Treat the extreme bands as stretched-rubber-band context, not trend confirmation.
02
Pair the score with the character check
The Tape Score says who is winning; the character chip (move size × follow-through) says how they are winning. Bulls in control on a whipsaw tape is a very different market from bulls in control on a trend-day tape.
03
Dimension disagreement is information
Bullish session control with bearish breadth is the signature of a narrow, index-led tape — the futures are being carried while the average stock is not participating. The dimension cards show that split directly.
04
Do not re-read wiggles inside a band
The edges are fixed at 70/58/42/30 for a reason: a move from 50 to 54 is noise, while a band change is a regime statement. The flip section states exactly how far today's score sits from each edge.
Common Issues & Solutions
The index closed green but the score fell▾
The score reads the whole tape, not the cap-weighted close: breadth, extreme prints and futures candle bodies can all deteriorate on an up day. That divergence — index up, tape control slipping — is precisely what the gauge exists to surface.
A dimension reads 0 or 100▾
Inputs are clamped at their documented bounds, so a dimension pinned at 0 means its inputs are at or beyond the historical washout bound (e.g. print balance fully one-sided) — not that the data is broken.
Is this predictive?▾
It is a state gauge with published base rates. The mid bands ran close to baseline; the information is at the extremes, and there it is contrarian. Colors mark today's condition, never expected return.
What happens when a feed breaks?▾
The score needs at least 3 of 4 dimensions live. If an intraday feed fails, the affected dimension drops out and the page shows exactly which dimensions are in the score; with fewer than 3, no score is published rather than a degraded one.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Tape Score?▾
A 0–100 directional read of who controls the last 10 trading sessions: 100 is full bull control, 0 is full bear control, and ~50 is a contested, two-sided tape. It averages four equal-weight dimensions — ES/NQ session control, stock-level breadth, TICK/A-D pressure prints and volatility confirmation — each built from inputs with documented bounds.
What does a "contested" tape mean?▾
The score sits between 42 and 58: neither side has won the recent tape decisively. Contested tapes are the most common state (~28% of sessions since 2010) and their forward returns ran close to baseline — the actionable information lives at the band extremes.
Is a bear-controlled tape bearish?▾
Historically, no — that is the page's honest finding. Days in the bears-in-control band preceded above-baseline SPY returns over the following 21 sessions, the same contrarian U-shape our Session Momentum, TICK and Hidden Bear studies found. The color marks the current condition, not a forecast.
What data feeds the Tape Score?▾
Our own intraday database: 5-minute ES and NQ continuous-futures session aggregates, extreme-print counts from $TICK, $TIKQ, $ADD and $ADQD, the daily ~5,500-stock breadth universe (10-day MA share, McClellan, net advances), and CBOE VIX / VIX3M. Every input links to its own tool page.
How is the Tape Tracker different from the Swing Tracker?▾
Tape measures control (who is winning right now, horizon today to ~5 sessions); Swing measures condition (does the internal structure support holding for weeks, horizon 1 week to 3 months). A bear-controlled tape inside a healthy swing structure is a dip; a bear-controlled tape inside a deteriorating swing structure is a warning.
How often does it update?▾
Every US trading day after the close, together with the rest of the site's daily pipeline. The score is an end-of-day read; it does not stream intraday.
Explore Other Tools
Session Momentum
The 10-session ES/NQ bull-share read that drives the session-control dimension
Bull vs Bear Power
Every 5-minute candle body in ES & NQ, session by session since 2009
Market Breadth
% of ~5,500 stocks above their moving averages — the breadth dimension's anchor
NYSE TICK
Surge and washout extreme prints since 1997 — one of the four pressure-print inputs
Nasdaq TICK
The same dashboard on $TIKQ since 2001 — the Nasdaq half of the pressure-print inputs
VIX Term Structure
Contango vs backwardation — the volatility confirmation dimension
Last updated: 2026-07-14