Chart of the Day

What just did something it almost never does

Every session, a scanner sweeps all of our datasets — 300+ market and macro series — for readings that are extreme against their own full history: record highs and lows, decade extremes, regime flips. We verify the numbers against the source data, chart the ones worth your attention, and link each to the live gauge it came from. These are the charts we post on X and in the research letter.

Thursday, August 20, 2026

3 charts

Energy stocks at a 28-year record while crude sits 31% below its April high

The Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE) closed at 63.75 on August 20, 2026 — its third record close in four sessions (62.58 on the 17th, 63.68 on the 18th) and its 23rd record close of the year. It is up 42.6% year to date and first cleared its June 2014 peak of 49.75 on January 28. Crude did not carry it there: Brent’s latest print is $95.29 (August 18), up 55% on the year but 31% below its April 7 high of $138.21. Inside the group, Targa Resources closed at an all-time high of 302.25, ConocoPhillips at 134.89 is five cents below its November 2022 record, and Imperial Oil has risen nine sessions in a row.

as of Aug 20, 2026 close

Every US-listed airline is on a five-session-or-longer losing streak — energy is at a record

As of the August 20 close, every US-listed airline in our universe is on a losing streak of at least five sessions: Ryanair 11 straight down closes, Southwest 7, and Delta, United, American, Alaska and JetBlue 5 each. Ryanair’s run is the longest in its record, which begins in 2009; the stock has lost 10.9% over it and is down 24.5% for the year. The group’s 2026: Ryanair −24.5%, Alaska −20.1%, American −11.8%, Southwest −3.5%, United −0.1%, JetBlue +4.2%, Delta +16.8% — against the S&P 500 at +11.8% and XLE at +42.6%.

as of Aug 20, 2026 close

Advance Auto Parts −24.5%: its second-worst day in 17 years, 82% below the 2021 peak

Advance Auto Parts closed at $42.39 on August 20, 2026, down 24.5% on 17.2 million shares — 8.3 times its trailing 63-session average. In our record, which begins at the end of 2009, only May 31, 2023 (−35.0%) was a worse day. The stock is 82% below its November 15, 2021 peak of $241.91. The quarter behind the move: revenue of $2.0 billion, flat year over year and below the $2.04 billion consensus; full-year guidance of about $8.53 billion, under the $8.58 billion the Street carried; and management’s line that DIY demand is constrained by “tighter household budgets.”

as of Aug 20, 2026 close

Wednesday, August 19, 2026

3 charts

Moderna's +177% day — and it is still 64% below the 2021 peak

Moderna closed at $174.38 on August 19, up 177.0% from the prior close of $62.96, on 192 million shares — 29 times its trailing three-month average volume. The move followed the announcement that the Moderna–Merck personalized mRNA melanoma vaccine met its goals in a late-stage trial with Keytruda, the first successful phase-3 readout for an mRNA cancer vaccine. It is by far the largest one-day gain in the stock’s history; the prior best was +27.8% in February 2020. At the post-move market value, the session added roughly $43 billion.

as of Aug 19, 2026 close

Health care's biggest day since the tariff bounce

The Health Care Select Sector SPDR (XLV) rose 3.5% on August 19 to a record close of 175.68 — its largest one-day gain since April 9, 2025, the tariff-pause bounce, and its second straight record close, the third in August. The driver was one trial readout: the Moderna–Merck personalized mRNA melanoma vaccine met its late-stage goals. Merck gained 12.6%, the biggest single day in our 17-year record for the stock, closing at a fresh 52-week high of $152.20 at a market value near $380 billion; BioNTech rose 22.0% and Moderna 177%.

as of Aug 19, 2026 close

Margin debt's largest monthly drop on record — with SPY flat

FINRA’s July report, published August 17: margin debt fell $84.8 billion in one month, from June’s record $1.502 trillion to $1.417 trillion. In dollar terms that is the largest monthly decline in the record, which begins in 1997 — ahead of January 2022 (−$80.4 billion), June 2022 (−$69.5 billion) and October 2008 (−$68.2 billion). Each of those three came inside a falling market. This one arrived with SPY flat for the month: investors reduced leverage without being forced to.

as of Jul 2026 (FINRA)

Tuesday, August 18, 2026

3 charts

The 30-year Treasury yield is the highest since June 2007

The 30-year Treasury constant-maturity yield closed at 5.31% on August 17, 2026. The last close at or above that level was June 12, 2007, at 5.35%; nothing in the nineteen years between reached it, including the October 2023 peak. The 2-year sits at 4.19% and the 10-year at 4.72%, so the 30-year now yields 112 basis points more than the 2-year: the repricing is concentrated at the long end.

as of Aug 17, 2026 (US Treasury via FRED)

Building materials at 52-week lows while SPY sits 1% off its record

CRH closed at $93.25 and Martin Marietta at $522.81 on August 18, both fresh 52-week lows. CRH is 29% below its January 9 high of $131.38 and Martin Marietta 26% below its February 10 high of $708.11; Vulcan Materials, at $271.65, is 18% below its own February 10 high. Over the past year the three are down 16%, 13% and 6% while SPY is up 19%, and the index sits 1.3% below its August 13 record close.

as of Aug 18, 2026 close

Long bond yields at multi-decade highs on three continents

The US 30-year Treasury yield closed at 5.31% on August 17, its highest since June 12, 2007 (5.35%). The German 10-year Bund yield reached 3.28% on August 18, its highest since May 5, 2011 (3.41%). Japan’s 10-year JGB yield closed at 2.92% on August 17, its highest since September 27, 1996 (2.98%). Three of the world’s largest government bond markets are pricing long-term money at levels last seen fifteen, nineteen and thirty years ago.

as of Aug 17–18, 2026 (FRED, Bundesbank, Japan MOF)

Monday, August 17, 2026

6 charts

Nasdaq fund positioning is the shortest since 2019

Asset managers and leveraged funds held a combined net short of 27,460 E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures contracts in the CFTC’s August 11 report. At the aligned NQ futures close of 29,626 and the contract’s $20 multiplier, that equals −$16.3 billion of notional exposure, down $7.9 billion in one week. It is the most net-short dollar exposure in the chart’s 2019–present window.

as of Aug 11, 2026 (CFTC)

Refiners have doubled in 2026

Marathon Petroleum closed at $358.18 on Monday, up 120% from its December 31 close. Valero is up 113% and Phillips 66 up 86% over the same stretch, and all three set fresh 52-week highs after gaining 10% to 12% in a week. SPY is up 13% year to date, so the three refiners have added roughly nine times the index return.

as of 2026-08-17

Nike at a 12-year low

Nike closed at $39.09 on Monday, its lowest close since August 15, 2014, and a fresh 52-week low. The stock is down 78% from its November 5, 2021 peak of $177.51 on a split-adjusted basis. The selling is not confined to one name: over the past five sessions Coach parent TPR lost 22%, On Holding 19% and YETI 18%.

as of 2026-08-17

The Sahm rule has fully unwound

The real-time Sahm rule indicator printed −0.03 for July, its first negative reading since January 2023. It crossed the 0.50 trigger at 0.53 in July 2024 and peaked at 0.57 that August, the threshold Claudia Sahm designed to flag every US recession since 1970. A negative reading means the three-month average unemployment rate now sits below its low of the prior 12 months.

as of Jul 2026 (BLS via FRED, released Aug 7)

Temp help is growing again after 44 months

Temporary-help services employment was 0.4% higher in July than a year earlier, the first positive year-over-year reading since October 2022. The 44 consecutive months of declines from November 2022 through June 2026 were the longest such streak in the series, which begins in 1990. The level, 2.51 million jobs, remains 21% below the March 2022 peak of 3.16 million.

as of Jul 2026 (BLS, released Aug 7)

Sideline cash relative to stocks is back at 2000 levels

Money-market funds and bank deposits held $27.3 trillion at the end of the first quarter, against $79.7 trillion of US corporate equity market value. That puts sideline cash at 34% of the stock market; the four-quarter average of 33.3% is the lowest since the fourth quarter of 2000 and sits just above the 31.4% record low set in the third quarter of 2000. The 1982 record was 118%.

as of Q1 2026 (Fed Z.1 and H.8, ICI; released Jun 11)

Friday, August 14, 2026

6 charts

Stocks at record highs, long bonds at record lows

TLT, the 20+ year Treasury ETF, closed at 82.04 on Thursday: the lowest close in our record, which reaches back to December 2009, and its fourth record low in three weeks. It has now lost 52% from the August 2020 peak. The same session, equal-weight RSP, small-cap IWM and industrial XLI closed at record highs, and SPY finished 0.2% below the record close it set a day earlier.

as of 2026-08-14

Industrials joined the record parade

XLI, the industrial sector SPDR, closed at an all-time high of 186.51 on Thursday — its second record close this month in a history that reaches back to 1999. Equal-weight RSP and small-cap IWM set records the same session, with SPY 0.2% off Wednesday’s record close.

as of 2026-08-14

Copper has never been more expensive

Copper reached $13,552 per tonne in June, a record in the IMF global price series that starts in 1992, and 32% above the previous record of $10,231 set in March 2022. The old peak was a spike; the current level came from a year of nearly uninterrupted climbing.

as of Jun 2026 (IMF)

Business equipment orders are setting records again

Core capex orders (nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft, the cleanest monthly read on business equipment investment) reached a record $85.4 billion in June. After the August 2022 record, the series went three years without a new high; since November 2025 it has set six.

as of Jun 2026 (Census)

Consumer confidence: a record-low 12-month stretch

The OECD’s standardized index of US consumer confidence, scaled so 100 is the long-run average, printed 95.9 in June, and its 12-month average fell to 96.5, the lowest in the series’ 32 years. The raw index set its own record low a month earlier. This is a second, independently built gauge confirming what Michigan sentiment shows: the sourest sustained consumer mood on record.

as of Jun 2026 (OECD)

Households are more invested in stocks than ever

The four-quarter average of household equity allocation reached 46.0% in Q1, the highest in the 33-year Federal Reserve series. The current quarterly reading is 45.8%, just below the 46.7% raw peak in Q4 2025, but smoothing out that quarterly price move leaves the underlying allocation at a record. The dot-com high was 38.7%.

as of Q1 2026 (Fed Z.1)

Thursday, August 13, 2026

6 charts

Margin debt is growing 28 points faster than the market

FINRA margin debt reached a record $1.50 trillion in June 2026, up 49% from a year earlier, while SPY rose 21% over the same twelve months. Borrowing outgrowing the market by 28 points is the widest gap since October 2007, when it touched 28.6.

as of Jun 2026 (FINRA)

Shiller CAPE at 41.2 — highest since September 2000

The Shiller CAPE ratio — price over the 10-year average of inflation-adjusted earnings — reached 41.2 in August 2026. The last month at or above this level was September 2000. In 145 years of monthly data, only the dot-com peak months rank higher, topping out at 44.2 in December 1999.

as of Aug 2026

Consumer sentiment, 12-month average: lowest in 47 years

SPY closed at an all-time high this week. Meanwhile the trailing 12-month average of Michigan consumer sentiment sits at 53.6, the lowest reading in the 47 years that average can be computed, below the troughs of 1980, 2008 and 2022.

as of Jun 2026 (UMich)

Americans are starting businesses at a record pace

Americans filed 578,926 new business applications in July, the most in the 22 years the Census Bureau has tracked the series. The previous record was July 2020 (546,719), the peak of the pandemic startup wave; the 2019 average was 293K a month, roughly half the current pace.

as of Jul 2026 (Census)

Internet ad prices are the highest since 2011

The producer price index for internet advertising sales reached 133.3 in July, the highest since May 2011. The decade of ad-price deflation is fully unwound: prices fell 49% from the 2011 peak to the June 2020 trough, and have risen 89% since.

as of Jul 2026 (BLS PPI)

M2 money supply is setting records again

US M2 reached $23.2 trillion in June, its fifteenth consecutive record month. The April 2022 peak of $21.75 trillion stood for three years: M2 fell 4.9% into October 2023, the only sustained contraction in the 67-year record, then reclaimed the old high in April 2025. It now sits 6.5% above that peak and is growing 5.5% a year.

as of Jun 2026 (Fed H.6)