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Economy/Cap / Profits
ValuationUpdated with every release

Market Cap to Corporate Profits

This ratio divides the market value of all publicly traded US equities (Fed Z.1) by after-tax corporate profits from the national accounts (BEA, CP) — an economy-wide price-to-earnings multiple that sidesteps index composition, buybacks and share-count games. It is the natural counterpart to the Buffett Indicator: same numerator, but scaled by what companies actually earn rather than by GDP.

Latest reading

As of January 2026, Cap / Profits (Equity market value ÷ after-tax profits) stands at 20.2× — down from 21.9× the prior reading. The long-run median is about 13×; the dot-com peak reached 30×. Because the denominator includes the profits of private and foreign-earning companies, treat the level as an index, not a literal P/E. Its most useful role is as a cross-check: when the Buffett Indicator screams record extremes while this multiple sits well below its 2000 peak, the difference is the historic profit boom — the market is expensive against output but less so against earnings. Which denominator you trust is the whole valuation debate in one chart. Series history runs from 1947 to present.

Cap / ProfitsReleased 2026-06-11covers Q1 2026
20.2×
from 21.9×
Elevated vs history

Equity market value ÷ after-tax profits

Vs full history
20.293rd pctile
Equity value
$79.67T
After-tax profits
$3.95T
All-time high 30.5× (2000-01)
All-time low 4.6× (1978-10)
Since 1947
Observations 302

Next release: Sep 10, 2026

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Full history

Range:
Equity market value ÷ after-tax profitsSPY price (right, since 1993)
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Methodology & data

Cap / Profits is sourced from Fed/BEA via the Federal Reserve's FRED service (Fed Z.1 + BEA via FRED (BOGZ1LM883164115Q ÷ CP), quarterly, 1950s+). We pull the complete history, chart it on a quarterly basis, overlay SPY for context, and generate a dated plain-English reading from the latest release — with no smoothing or adjustment beyond what the chart legend states.

Every reading is stamped with its release date, last updated 2026-07-12. Maintained and reviewed by Yuriy Matso; see our methodology for the standards every series on the site is held to.

03

Frequently asked questions

What is the Market Cap to Corporate Profits?

This ratio divides the market value of all publicly traded US equities (Fed Z.1) by after-tax corporate profits from the national accounts (BEA, CP) — an economy-wide price-to-earnings multiple that sidesteps index composition, buybacks and share-count games. It is the natural counterpart to the Buffett Indicator: same numerator, but scaled by what companies actually earn rather than by GDP.

How do you read Cap / Profits?

The long-run median is about 13×; the dot-com peak reached 30×. Because the denominator includes the profits of private and foreign-earning companies, treat the level as an index, not a literal P/E. Its most useful role is as a cross-check: when the Buffett Indicator screams record extremes while this multiple sits well below its 2000 peak, the difference is the historic profit boom — the market is expensive against output but less so against earnings. Which denominator you trust is the whole valuation debate in one chart.

Where does the Cap / Profits data come from?

Fed Z.1 + BEA via FRED (BOGZ1LM883164115Q ÷ CP), quarterly, 1950s+. We chart the full history and publish a dated, plain-English reading with every release; the raw series is downloadable as CSV at /data/indicators/market-cap-to-profits.csv.

How often is Cap / Profits updated?

Cap / Profits is a quarterly series from Fed/BEA, refreshed here as soon as a new release posts to FRED.