We start with the question traders are actually asking, rebuild the evidence from our own datasets, and publish the answer — including the history that disagrees with it.
Diesel's refining margin, what a barrel of diesel sells for above a barrel of crude, is at a record. After the nine past spikes since 1989, stocks had a weak first year, with deeper drawdowns than usual. This market has already spent half of that year making new highs, and from the same six-month mark the past episodes went on to a roughly normal year. I read the record as a reason for caution, and I would not sell on it.
Gold is 23% below its record. Since 2004, three 20% declines recovered within 18 months; one became the 2013 bear market. The case for each, measured.
The S&P 500 rose in the year after all 19 midterms since 1950, by 16.6% on average. Before 1950 it fell twice, and years starting near a high did less.
43 sessions without a 1% drop. Since 1929, long calms that broke near a high led to a 10% decline 8% of the time, against 11% for other 1% drops there.
Today vs the 2000 top: profits are growing and broader than the headlines, but valuation rests on a record profit share. What could break it, measured.
S&P 500 near a record with 26% of stocks above their 50-day: since 1927 that setup came before the 1973 and 2000 tops, and 2023. Most tops were broad.
XLF is 6% below its high with SPY near a record. Prior episodes returned 2.57% over a quarter versus 2.65% for the baseline. See every case and the limits.
QQQ set a record on Sep 22, 2026 with 37% of Nasdaq stocks on buy signals, more new lows than highs and 47 of 100 members above their 50-day. 8 prior cases.
BPI at 30.6%, just above the oversold line of 30, with SPY 2% from a record. No dependable edge: seven prior cases look weak, five spaced ones ordinary.
As of Sep 14, US 10-year yields rose 91 bp since March. The refinancing bill, limits of Fed cuts, and what higher yields mean for the economy and dollar.
SPY's daily range is at its 5th percentile since 1993, yet the VIX sits at its 58th. Prior calm spells brought ordinary returns and ended within 58 sessions.
August 2026 review: stocks rose, breadth narrowed, metals and crypto surged, business accelerated, and household and energy strains deepened.
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