We start with the question traders are actually asking, rebuild the evidence from our own datasets, and publish the answer — including the history that disagrees with it.
As of September 14, the US 10-year was up 91 basis points since March 2; the other six bond markets rose 57 to 95. The US rise was mostly in real yields. Replacing the nominal debt maturing in fiscal 2027 to 2029 at September 11 yields would add about $155 billion a year to interest on those securities. I trace when that bill arrives, why Fed cuts could leave mortgages expensive, and why the dollar slipped despite a slightly wider measured yield advantage.
SPY's daily range is at its 5th percentile since 1993, yet the VIX sits at its 58th. Prior calm spells brought ordinary returns and ended within 58 sessions.
August 2026 review: stocks rose, breadth narrowed, metals and crypto surged, business accelerated, and household and energy strains deepened.
AI capex more than doubled, yet Nasdaq-100 revenue, operating profit and free cash flow still rose. The fundamental stress test says no crack yet.
Nonfinancial corporate margins rose to 15.2%, third-highest since 1947, while consumer sentiment set a 47-year low. What drove the gap and what stocks did next.
Across 18 comparable Q2 13F filings, Alphabet led current buying while TSM and Amazon showed the strongest multi-quarter accumulation.
XLE at a 28-year record with Brent 31% below its April high. Refiners did the work on a 99.9th-percentile crack spread. The last time, November 2022, the margin halved and XLE lost 12%.
Existing-home sales at 4.06M, a 2010-trough pace; prices +1% nominal, −2.8% real; owners at 72% equity, delinquency 1.9%. Frozen and slowly deflating, not 2008.
Copper hit a record $13,552/tonne. We ranked all 1,901 US-listed $2B+ stocks by 15 years of copper correlation: the top miners, the diversified route, the indirect plays — and what the 2011 bust did to each.
WEC fell 11 straight sessions and every large utility dropped 3–10% while SPY set records — and the 10-year barely moved. What 43 long utility streaks since 2010 did next.
Tech beat energy by 10.6 points in five sessions, but most sectors rose. After 12 similar rallies near highs, SPY’s next quarter matched its baseline.
45 of 101 Nasdaq-100 members are 20%+ below their own highs while QQQ sits 3.5% from a record. This shape has 22 precedents in 15 years — 20 of them this year.
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