Consumer sentiment, 12-month average: lowest in 47 years

SPY closed at an all-time high this week. Meanwhile the trailing 12-month average of Michigan consumer sentiment sits at 53.6, the lowest reading in the 47 years that average can be computed, below the troughs of 1980, 2008 and 2022.

The divergence is the story: the index is not the mood of the country. Historically, this gauge leaned contrarian — the weakest sentiment deciles preceded above-baseline 12-month returns — which is the opposite of what the headline feeling suggests.