Retail Sales Release Dates 2026 and Market Reaction
The next Advance Retail Sales is scheduled for Thursday, October 15, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET. On 429 Retail sales days since 1993, SPY's move landed in the biggest quarter of all trading days 26.6% of the time, against 25% for any day, within two standard errors (±4.2 points) of chance: by this measure a Retail sales day is indistinguishable from a normal session. The median move was 0.58% against 0.53% on all days.
Last release Sep 28, 2026. Its headline value is not matched in this record; the Retail Sales page carries the latest reading.
Upcoming Retail sales dates
- Thursday, October 15, 20268:30 AM ET
- Tuesday, November 17, 20268:30 AM ET
- Wednesday, December 16, 20268:30 AM ET
Schedule: FRED release 9. Release record since 1966.
Does the market move on release day?
On 429 Retail sales days since 1993, SPY's move landed in the biggest quarter of all trading days 26.6% of the time, against 25% for any day, within two standard errors (±4.2 points) of chance: by this measure a Retail sales day is indistinguishable from a normal session. The median move was 0.58% against 0.53% on all days. SPY closed higher on 54.5% of release days against 53.6% of all days. The 10-year Treasury yield moved a median 3.9 bp either way, against 3.2 bp on all days.
When the headline Retail Sales came in above its prior reading (163 days), release days carried an average SPY return of +0.15%; when it came in below (155 days), an average SPY return of −0.06%.
The top quarter means a close-to-close SPY move of 1.04% or more either way, the 75th percentile of every trading day since 1993. Headline values are today's revised figures, and no consensus forecasts are used, so above and below compare each print with the previous print. This is not a surprise study: markets react to the gap between a release and what was expected.
Recent Retail sales releases
| Released | Period | Retail Sales | Prior | SPY | 10-year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 28, 2026 | — | — | — | −0.74% | +5.6 bp |
| Sep 16, 2026 | August 2026 | 5.4% | 4.5% | −0.45% | +1.0 bp |
| Aug 14, 2026 | July 2026 | 4.5% | 5.9% | −0.20% | +5.5 bp |
| Jul 16, 2026 | June 2026 | 5.9% | 6.7% | −0.54% | +2.4 bp |
| Jun 17, 2026 | May 2026 | 6.7% | 4.1% | −1.25% | +3.5 bp |
| May 14, 2026 | April 2026 | 4.1% | 3.6% | +0.79% | −2.0 bp |
| Apr 21, 2026 | March 2026 | 3.6% | 3.5% | −0.65% | +4.2 bp |
| Apr 1, 2026 | February 2026 | 3.5% | 2.2% | +0.75% | +0.8 bp |
| Mar 6, 2026 | January 2026 | 2.2% | 2.1% | −1.31% | −1.3 bp |
| Feb 10, 2026 | December 2025 | 2.1% | 2.9% | −0.26% | −5.1 bp |
| Jan 14, 2026 | November 2025 | 2.9% | 2.8% | −0.49% | −3.1 bp |
| Dec 16, 2025 | October 2025 | 2.8% | 3.8% | −0.27% | −3.3 bp |
| Nov 25, 2025 | September 2025 | 3.8% | 0.5% | +0.94% | −3.6 bp |
| Sep 16, 2025 | August 2025 | 0.5% | −0.1% | −0.14% | −0.8 bp |
| Aug 15, 2025 | July 2025 | −0.1% | −0.1% | −0.23% | +3.5 bp |
| Jul 17, 2025 | June 2025 | −0.1% | −1.1% | +0.61% | +0.8 bp |
| Jun 17, 2025 | May 2025 | −1.1% | 1.1% | −0.85% | −5.9 bp |
| May 15, 2025 | April 2025 | 1.1% | 1.0% | +0.49% | −7.3 bp |
| Apr 25, 2025 | — | — | — | +0.72% | −3.9 bp |
| Apr 16, 2025 | March 2025 | 1.0% | −0.2% | −2.22% | −4.4 bp |
| Mar 17, 2025 | February 2025 | −0.2% | 1.0% | +0.77% | −0.2 bp |
| Feb 14, 2025 | January 2025 | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.00% | −5.3 bp |
| Jan 16, 2025 | December 2024 | 0.8% | 0.1% | −0.19% | −4.7 bp |
| Dec 17, 2024 | November 2024 | 0.1% | −0.6% | −0.41% | −1.2 bp |
Newest first. Values are today's revised data; a dash means no matched value.
What it measures
The monthly estimate of sales at US retailers and restaurants, the earliest read on consumer spending each month.
- Published by
- Census Bureau (Census)
- Release time
- 8:30 AM ET
- Schedule source
- FRED release 9
- Indicator pages
- Retail SalesAdvance Retail Sales (ex Food Services)
Frequently asked questions
When is the next Retail sales release?
The next Advance Retail Sales is scheduled for Thursday, October 15, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET. After that: Tuesday, November 17, 2026; Wednesday, December 16, 2026. Source: Census Bureau.
What time is the Retail sales released?
The Census Bureau publishes the Advance Retail Sales at 8:30 AM Eastern Time on its scheduled release days.
Does the stock market move on Retail sales days?
On 429 Retail sales days since 1993, SPY's move landed in the biggest quarter of all trading days 26.6% of the time, against 25% for any day, within two standard errors (±4.2 points) of chance: by this measure a Retail sales day is indistinguishable from a normal session. The median move was 0.58% against 0.53% on all days. SPY closed higher on 54.5% of release days against 53.6% of all days. The 10-year Treasury yield moved a median 3.9 bp either way, against 3.2 bp on all days.
How did the market react to the last Retail sales release?
On Monday, September 28, 2026, SPY moved −0.74% close to close and the 10-year Treasury yield +5.6 bp.
Last release Sep 28, 2026. Its headline value is not matched in this record; the Retail Sales page carries the latest reading.