Trade Balance Release Dates 2026 and Market Reaction
The next International Trade in Goods and Services is scheduled for Tuesday, October 6, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET. On 358 Trade balance days since 1997, SPY's move landed in the biggest quarter of all trading days 28.2% of the time, against 25% for any day, within two standard errors (±4.6 points) of chance: by this measure a Trade balance day is indistinguishable from a normal session. The median move was 0.61% against 0.56% on all days.
July 2026, released Sep 3, 2026
Upcoming Trade balance dates
- Tuesday, October 6, 20268:30 AM ET
- Wednesday, November 4, 20268:30 AM ET
- Tuesday, December 8, 20268:30 AM ET
Schedule: FRED release 51. Release record since 1997.
Does the market move on release day?
On 358 Trade balance days since 1997, SPY's move landed in the biggest quarter of all trading days 28.2% of the time, against 25% for any day, within two standard errors (±4.6 points) of chance: by this measure a Trade balance day is indistinguishable from a normal session. The median move was 0.61% against 0.56% on all days. SPY closed higher on 53.9% of release days against 53.8% of all days. The 10-year Treasury yield moved a median 3.5 bp either way, against 3.2 bp on all days.
When the headline Trade Balance (Goods & Services) came in above its prior reading (158 days), release days carried an average SPY return of +0.25%; when it came in below (197 days), an average SPY return of −0.08%.
The top quarter means a close-to-close SPY move of 1.04% or more either way, the 75th percentile of every trading day since 1993. Headline values are today's revised figures, and no consensus forecasts are used, so above and below compare each print with the previous print. This is not a surprise study: markets react to the gap between a release and what was expected.
Recent Trade balance releases
| Released | Period | Trade Balance (Goods & Services) | Prior | SPY | 10-year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 3, 2026 | July 2026 | −$88.6B | −$71.2B | +1.05% | −3.4 bp |
| Aug 4, 2026 | June 2026 | −$71.2B | −$75.8B | +1.80% | −5.9 bp |
| Jul 7, 2026 | May 2026 | −$75.8B | −$52.9B | −0.48% | +5.0 bp |
| Jun 9, 2026 | April 2026 | −$52.9B | −$53.7B | −0.29% | −2.4 bp |
| May 5, 2026 | March 2026 | −$53.7B | −$52.5B | +0.80% | −3.0 bp |
| Apr 2, 2026 | February 2026 | −$52.5B | −$52.7B | +0.09% | −0.6 bp |
| Mar 12, 2026 | January 2026 | −$52.7B | −$76.1B | −1.52% | +6.5 bp |
| Feb 19, 2026 | December 2025 | −$76.1B | −$63.9B | −0.26% | −0.4 bp |
| Jan 29, 2026 | November 2025 | −$63.9B | −$37.4B | −0.20% | −2.4 bp |
| Jan 8, 2026 | October 2025 | −$37.4B | −$59.4B | −0.01% | +4.5 bp |
| Dec 11, 2025 | September 2025 | −$59.4B | −$59.6B | +0.23% | −2.3 bp |
| Nov 19, 2025 | August 2025 | −$59.6B | −$75.1B | +0.39% | +1.0 bp |
| Sep 4, 2025 | July 2025 | −$75.1B | −$58.7B | +0.84% | −3.5 bp |
| Aug 5, 2025 | June 2025 | −$58.7B | −$66.7B | −0.51% | −0.4 bp |
| Jul 3, 2025 | May 2025 | −$66.7B | −$60.3B | +0.79% | +5.5 bp |
| Jun 5, 2025 | April 2025 | −$60.3B | −$133B | −0.48% | +2.9 bp |
| May 6, 2025 | March 2025 | −$133B | −$117B | −0.84% | −3.5 bp |
| Apr 3, 2025 | February 2025 | −$117B | −$125B | −4.93% | −14.1 bp |
| Mar 6, 2025 | January 2025 | −$125B | −$96.8B | −1.78% | +2.1 bp |
| Feb 5, 2025 | December 2024 | −$96.8B | −$79.8B | +0.41% | −9.1 bp |
| Jan 7, 2025 | November 2024 | −$79.8B | −$75.8B | −1.13% | +6.5 bp |
| Dec 5, 2024 | October 2024 | −$75.8B | −$83.3B | −0.16% | 0.0 bp |
| Nov 5, 2024 | September 2024 | −$83.3B | −$71.2B | +1.21% | −2.0 bp |
| Oct 8, 2024 | August 2024 | −$71.2B | −$77.0B | +0.95% | +0.7 bp |
Newest first. Values are today's revised data; a dash means no matched value.
What it measures
The monthly report on US exports and imports of goods and services and the balance between them.
- Published by
- Census Bureau and BEA (Census/BEA)
- Release time
- 8:30 AM ET
- Schedule source
- FRED release 51
- Indicator pages
- Trade Balance (Goods & Services)
Frequently asked questions
When is the next Trade balance release?
The next International Trade in Goods and Services is scheduled for Tuesday, October 6, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET. After that: Wednesday, November 4, 2026; Tuesday, December 8, 2026. Source: Census Bureau and BEA.
What time is the Trade balance released?
The Census Bureau and BEA publishes the International Trade in Goods and Services at 8:30 AM Eastern Time on its scheduled release days.
Does the stock market move on Trade balance days?
On 358 Trade balance days since 1997, SPY's move landed in the biggest quarter of all trading days 28.2% of the time, against 25% for any day, within two standard errors (±4.6 points) of chance: by this measure a Trade balance day is indistinguishable from a normal session. The median move was 0.61% against 0.56% on all days. SPY closed higher on 53.9% of release days against 53.8% of all days. The 10-year Treasury yield moved a median 3.5 bp either way, against 3.2 bp on all days.
How did the market react to the last Trade balance release?
On Thursday, September 3, 2026, SPY moved +1.05% close to close and the 10-year Treasury yield −3.4 bp. The headline Trade Balance (Goods & Services) read −$88.6B against −$71.2B before.
July 2026, released Sep 3, 2026