PCE Release Dates 2026 and Market Reaction
The next Personal Income and Outlays (PCE Inflation) is scheduled for Thursday, October 29, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET. On 411 PCE days since 1993, SPY's move landed in the biggest quarter of all trading days 25.8% of the time, against 25% for any day, within two standard errors (±4.3 points) of chance: by this measure a PCE day is indistinguishable from a normal session. The median move was 0.55% against 0.53% on all days.
August 2026, released Sep 30, 2026
Upcoming PCE dates
- Thursday, October 29, 20268:30 AM ET
- Wednesday, November 25, 20268:30 AM ET
- Wednesday, December 23, 20268:30 AM ET
Schedule: FRED release 54. Release record since 1966.
Does the market move on release day?
On 411 PCE days since 1993, SPY's move landed in the biggest quarter of all trading days 25.8% of the time, against 25% for any day, within two standard errors (±4.3 points) of chance: by this measure a PCE day is indistinguishable from a normal session. The median move was 0.55% against 0.53% on all days. SPY closed higher on 52.5% of release days against 53.6% of all days. The 10-year Treasury yield moved a median 3.1 bp either way, against 3.2 bp on all days.
When the headline Core PCE Price Index came in above its prior reading (175 days), release days carried an average SPY return of +0.07%; when it came in below (143 days), an average SPY return of −0.02%.
The top quarter means a close-to-close SPY move of 1.04% or more either way, the 75th percentile of every trading day since 1993. Headline values are today's revised figures, and no consensus forecasts are used, so above and below compare each print with the previous print. This is not a surprise study: markets react to the gap between a release and what was expected.
Recent PCE releases
| Released | Period | Core PCE Price Index | Prior | SPY | 10-year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 30, 2026 | August 2026 | 3.0% | 3.0% | −0.21% | +3.8 bp |
| Aug 26, 2026 | July 2026 | 3.0% | 3.0% | +0.02% | +2.5 bp |
| Jul 30, 2026 | June 2026 | 3.0% | 3.2% | +1.68% | +4.1 bp |
| Jun 25, 2026 | May 2026 | 3.2% | 3.1% | +0.14% | −1.0 bp |
| May 28, 2026 | April 2026 | 3.1% | 3.1% | +0.55% | −2.6 bp |
| Apr 30, 2026 | March 2026 | 3.1% | 3.0% | +0.99% | −2.8 bp |
| Apr 9, 2026 | February 2026 | 3.0% | 2.9% | +0.58% | +0.2 bp |
| Mar 13, 2026 | January 2026 | 2.9% | 2.9% | −0.57% | +1.2 bp |
| Feb 20, 2026 | December 2025 | 2.9% | 2.7% | +0.72% | +1.1 bp |
| Jan 22, 2026 | November 2025 | 2.7% | 2.7% | +0.52% | −0.4 bp |
| Dec 23, 2025 | — | — | — | +0.46% | 0.0 bp |
| Dec 5, 2025 | September 2025 | 2.8% | 2.9% | +0.19% | +3.1 bp |
| Sep 26, 2025 | August 2025 | 2.9% | 2.8% | +0.57% | +1.5 bp |
| Aug 29, 2025 | July 2025 | 2.8% | 2.8% | −0.60% | +2.0 bp |
| Jul 31, 2025 | June 2025 | 2.8% | 2.8% | −0.38% | −1.6 bp |
| Jun 27, 2025 | May 2025 | 2.8% | 2.6% | +0.50% | +3.0 bp |
| May 30, 2025 | April 2025 | 2.6% | 2.6% | −0.11% | −0.8 bp |
| Apr 30, 2025 | March 2025 | 2.6% | 2.9% | +0.04% | +0.4 bp |
| Mar 28, 2025 | February 2025 | 2.9% | 2.8% | −2.01% | −11.4 bp |
| Feb 28, 2025 | January 2025 | 2.8% | 3.0% | +1.56% | −5.4 bp |
| Jan 31, 2025 | December 2024 | 3.0% | 3.0% | −0.53% | +5.7 bp |
| Dec 20, 2024 | November 2024 | 3.0% | 3.0% | +0.86% | −4.6 bp |
| Nov 27, 2024 | October 2024 | 3.0% | 2.8% | −0.30% | −6.0 bp |
| Oct 31, 2024 | September 2024 | 2.8% | 2.9% | −1.96% | +1.8 bp |
Newest first. Values are today's revised data; a dash means no matched value.
What it measures
The monthly report on household income and spending, carrying the PCE price index, the inflation measure the Federal Reserve targets.
- Published by
- Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)
- Release time
- 8:30 AM ET
- Schedule source
- FRED release 54
Frequently asked questions
When is the next PCE release?
The next Personal Income and Outlays (PCE Inflation) is scheduled for Thursday, October 29, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET. After that: Wednesday, November 25, 2026; Wednesday, December 23, 2026. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
What time is the PCE released?
The Bureau of Economic Analysis publishes the Personal Income and Outlays (PCE Inflation) at 8:30 AM Eastern Time on its scheduled release days.
Does the stock market move on PCE days?
On 411 PCE days since 1993, SPY's move landed in the biggest quarter of all trading days 25.8% of the time, against 25% for any day, within two standard errors (±4.3 points) of chance: by this measure a PCE day is indistinguishable from a normal session. The median move was 0.55% against 0.53% on all days. SPY closed higher on 52.5% of release days against 53.6% of all days. The 10-year Treasury yield moved a median 3.1 bp either way, against 3.2 bp on all days.
How did the market react to the last PCE release?
On Wednesday, September 30, 2026, SPY moved −0.21% close to close and the 10-year Treasury yield +3.8 bp. The headline Core PCE Price Index read 3.0% against 3.0% before.
August 2026, released Sep 30, 2026