GDP Release Dates 2026 and Market Reaction
The next Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is scheduled for Thursday, October 29, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET. On 452 GDP days since 1993, SPY's move landed in the biggest quarter of all trading days 25.4% of the time, against 25% for any day, within two standard errors (±4.1 points) of chance: by this measure a GDP day is indistinguishable from a normal session. The median move was 0.52% against 0.53% on all days.
Last release Sep 30, 2026. Its headline value is not matched in this record; the Real GDP Growth page carries the latest reading.
Upcoming GDP dates
- Thursday, October 29, 20268:30 AM ET
- Wednesday, November 25, 20268:30 AM ET
- Wednesday, December 23, 20268:30 AM ET
Schedule: FRED release 53. Release record since 1947.
Does the market move on release day?
On 452 GDP days since 1993, SPY's move landed in the biggest quarter of all trading days 25.4% of the time, against 25% for any day, within two standard errors (±4.1 points) of chance: by this measure a GDP day is indistinguishable from a normal session. The median move was 0.52% against 0.53% on all days. SPY closed higher on 56.0% of release days against 53.6% of all days. The 10-year Treasury yield moved a median 3.0 bp either way, against 3.2 bp on all days.
When the headline Real GDP Growth came in above its prior reading (26 days), release days carried an average SPY return of +0.14%; when it came in below (33 days), an average SPY return of +0.51%. Either group is small enough that the difference can be noise.
The top quarter means a close-to-close SPY move of 1.04% or more either way, the 75th percentile of every trading day since 1993. Headline values are today's revised figures, and no consensus forecasts are used, so above and below compare each print with the previous print. This is not a surprise study: markets react to the gap between a release and what was expected.
Recent GDP releases
| Released | Period | Real GDP Growth | Prior | SPY | 10-year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 30, 2026 | — | — | — | −0.21% | +3.8 bp |
| Aug 26, 2026 | — | — | — | +0.02% | +2.5 bp |
| Jul 30, 2026 | April 2026 | 2.2% | 2.5% | +1.68% | +4.1 bp |
| Jun 25, 2026 | — | — | — | +0.14% | −1.0 bp |
| May 28, 2026 | — | — | — | +0.55% | −2.6 bp |
| Apr 30, 2026 | January 2026 | 2.5% | 0.2% | +0.99% | −2.8 bp |
| Apr 9, 2026 | — | — | — | +0.58% | +0.2 bp |
| Mar 13, 2026 | — | — | — | −0.57% | +1.2 bp |
| Feb 20, 2026 | October 2025 | 0.2% | 3.9% | +0.72% | +1.1 bp |
| Jan 22, 2026 | — | — | — | +0.52% | −0.4 bp |
| Dec 23, 2025 | July 2025 | 3.9% | 4.0% | +0.46% | 0.0 bp |
| Sep 25, 2025 | — | — | — | −0.46% | +2.5 bp |
| Aug 28, 2025 | — | — | — | +0.35% | −3.1 bp |
| Jul 30, 2025 | April 2025 | 4.0% | 0.1% | −0.13% | +4.6 bp |
| Jun 26, 2025 | — | — | — | +0.78% | −4.0 bp |
| May 29, 2025 | — | — | — | +0.39% | −5.3 bp |
| Apr 30, 2025 | January 2025 | 0.1% | 2.4% | +0.04% | +0.4 bp |
| Mar 27, 2025 | — | — | — | −0.27% | +3.1 bp |
| Feb 27, 2025 | — | — | — | −1.60% | +3.6 bp |
| Jan 30, 2025 | October 2024 | 2.4% | 3.2% | +0.54% | −4.3 bp |
| Dec 19, 2024 | — | — | — | −0.03% | +7.6 bp |
| Nov 27, 2024 | — | — | — | −0.30% | −6.0 bp |
| Oct 30, 2024 | July 2024 | 3.2% | 3.6% | −0.30% | −0.8 bp |
| Oct 2, 2024 | — | — | — | +0.04% | +4.2 bp |
Newest first. Values are today's revised data; a dash means no matched value.
What it measures
The quarterly measure of US economic output, published as an advance estimate about a month after the quarter ends and revised twice in the following two months.
- Published by
- Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)
- Release time
- 8:30 AM ET
- Schedule source
- FRED release 53
- Indicator pages
- Real GDP Growth
Frequently asked questions
When is the next GDP release?
The next Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is scheduled for Thursday, October 29, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET. After that: Wednesday, November 25, 2026; Wednesday, December 23, 2026. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
What time is the GDP released?
The Bureau of Economic Analysis publishes the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at 8:30 AM Eastern Time on its scheduled release days.
Does the stock market move on GDP days?
On 452 GDP days since 1993, SPY's move landed in the biggest quarter of all trading days 25.4% of the time, against 25% for any day, within two standard errors (±4.1 points) of chance: by this measure a GDP day is indistinguishable from a normal session. The median move was 0.52% against 0.53% on all days. SPY closed higher on 56.0% of release days against 53.6% of all days. The 10-year Treasury yield moved a median 3.0 bp either way, against 3.2 bp on all days.
How did the market react to the last GDP release?
On Wednesday, September 30, 2026, SPY moved −0.21% close to close and the 10-year Treasury yield +3.8 bp.
Last release Sep 30, 2026. Its headline value is not matched in this record; the Real GDP Growth page carries the latest reading.